@peterdonaghy

Accountant and data analyst Also @peterdonaghy.bsky.social 🇺🇦

 Belfast
salmonofdata.substack.com
Joined December 2008
  • Tweets14.9K
  • Following1.9K
  • Followers9K
2.9KMedia
I've made a new website that tracks data over time to test claims about where the world is heading; things like "AI is going to disrupt the labour market" or "the current El Niño event will lead to higher food prices" salmonofdata.com
A salmonofdata.com chart showing forecast and actuals for El Niño

ALT A salmonofdata.com chart showing forecast and actuals for El Niño

2
6
4,112
Ok, so here's the *real* NI Assembly Election forecast: [your favourite party] will win all 90 seats. The First Minister will be [you] and the dFM will be [your best friend], you'll go on little adventures together. You'll have all the ice cream you want, they'll abolish bedtime,
9
1
1
56
5,179
Just 197 more sleeps until nerd Christmas
1
477
My forecast model has SDLP as heavy favourites in Strangford. But - the model assumes the SDLP will outpoll SF in 1st preferences in Strangford in most model runs. In the scenarios where SF won more 1st prefs than SDLP, SF won a seat most of the time. So I could be wrong here.
A 2027 Assembly Election Forecast

ALT A 2027 Assembly Election Forecast

Suzanne Breen@SuzyJournoOct 21
Standing Chris Hazzard in Strangford isn't a reckless throw of the dice by Sinn Fein. It rarely makes election errors. This is a strategic, data-driven decision, & the party is confident it can win the first nationalist Stormont seat in the constituency. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/comme…

Sinn Féin’s high-stakes gamble in staunchly unionist constituency may not be the big risk it seems

belfasttelegraph.co.uk
6
7
1
30
15,293
A Tom Gara tweet: "One of the funniest things about the UK is it's in this very serious long-term economic crisis with insanely difficult structural problems and every week the headlines are like, PM pushes back on opposition complaints, vows new Save Our Chippies bill won't limit crispy bits"

ALT A Tom Gara tweet: "One of the funniest things about the UK is it's in this very serious long-term economic crisis with insanely difficult structural problems and every week the headlines are like, PM pushes back on opposition complaints, vows new Save Our Chippies bill won't limit crispy bits"

Politics UK
@PolitlcsUKOct 19
🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham has announced changes to car parking fines - Drivers will have a 5-minute grace period to decide whether to park and 10 minutes to leave after a parking session ends - A £20 maximum charge on appeal for minor mistakes, such as entering the wrong number plate or not displaying a permit - Charges will also be cancelled on appeal for breakdowns, medical emergencies or broken ticket machines - The £100 cap on charges will remain - The rules will come into force as soon as possible and operators that break them will lose access to DVLA data
3
5
1,911
I ran SF with 2 candidates in Belfast South & Mid Down through 1000 runs of the forecast model and it didn't rate their chances of winning 2 very highly. The most likely outcome was no change.
A forecast of Belfast South and Mid Down at the 2027 NI Assembly Election

ALT A forecast of Belfast South and Mid Down at the 2027 NI Assembly Election

Belfast Telegraph
@BelTelOct 20
Sinn Féin MP Pat Cullen to run in Assembly election as party bids to take two seats in South Belfast & Mid Down belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/…

Sinn Féin MP Pat Cullen to run in Assembly election as party bids to take two seats in South...

Former nursing chief joins Deirdre Hargey on Stormont ticket

belfasttelegraph.co.uk
20
7
1
37
18,482
DAERA released new data on Lough Neagh algae blooms recently. Cranfield returned an estimated chlorophyll concentration of 1,377 µg/L in September, but the probe is only rated to 500µg/L, above which readings are unreliable. 3.6 Roentgen, not great not terrible etc.
1
2
1,445
From the Assembly election model - this was the estimated number of Executive ministries by each party and designation (assuming each party takes their entitlement and Justice isn't allocated by d'Hondt)
A chart showing the likely allocation of NI Executive posts after the Assembly election forecast

ALT A chart showing the likely allocation of NI Executive posts after the Assembly election forecast

2
2
28
12,101
Executive ministries if Justice is distributed by d'Hondt
A chart showing the estimated distribution of Executive ministries after the next Assembly election

ALT A chart showing the estimated distribution of Executive ministries after the next Assembly election

1,148
Belfast is wild because you can't get home by public transport after 9pm but the courts are open to adjudicate on parading disputes 24/7
19
140
6
2,202
67,554
I made a couple of changes to the Assembly Election forecast model. It has increased the estimated number of Unionist seats slightly, but Nationalist was the largest designation 68% of the time, Unionist 10% of the time, with a tie in 22% of the model runs.
A chart showing estimated seat win probabilities by party and candidate for the 2027 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

ALT A chart showing estimated seat win probabilities by party and candidate for the 2027 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

9
11
52
16,316
more replies
At a designation level, this is how that would look in a historic context. An unchanged number of net Unionist seats, but Nationalist would be the biggest designation by taking 2 Unionist seats (UB & EL/D) and 2 Alliance seats (Strangford & LV).
Movement in designations at in the Assembly since 1998

ALT Movement in designations at in the Assembly since 1998

1
1
7
1,675
The slightly more chaotic chart of movement between parties since 1998, and the 2027 forecast.
Movement between parties at the NI Assembly since 1998

ALT Movement between parties at the NI Assembly since 1998

1
7
1,015
Peter Donaghy retweeted
Dan Davies@dsquareddigestOct 8
You might learn it even sooner if you get Claude to summarise a physics textbook for you
Joshua Achiam
@jachiam0Oct 7
Within five years we may know whether faster than light travel is possible
2
17
435
6,581
This was the distribution of seat win probabilities by designation from the Assembly Election forecast.
A chart showing seat win probabilities with designation

ALT A chart showing seat win probabilities with designation

3
5
1
18
5,970
The best case scenario for Nationalism was 45 seats - this happened in 0.5% of the 1000 model runs. It would look like this or something similar.
A chart showing what 45 nationalist seats could look like

ALT A chart showing what 45 nationalist seats could look like

9
4
4
44
25,995
The best case scenario for Unionism was 41 seats, which happened in 0.2% of the model runs. It would look something like this.
6
2
6
4,068
It's early days, but the slowdown in professional and business services hiring in the US and the decline in the software pay premium in Canada could be a sign that AI is beginning to have a measurable impact on jobs.
A chart showing the software salary premium in Canada over time

ALT A chart showing the software salary premium in Canada over time

A chart showing professional and business services hiring in the United States over time

ALT A chart showing professional and business services hiring in the United States over time

Samuel Tombs
@samueltombsOct 2
It's beyond doubt now - AI is a net drag on payrolls. Job losses in finance, information and professional and business services are continuously exceeding the jobs created in the construction and manufacturing sectors:
1
1,642
One thing I'm never ever doing again is an NI Local Election forecast model. Godspeed to all you public-spirited oddballs wanting to get involved with local government but I'm not getting involved. Thank you for your service though 🫡
2
1
42
4,957
A small change to the Assembly Election forecast model - it wasn't using a unionist transfer model for PUP votes. Fixed this and it had a small impact on EB, UB and EL/D, and increased overall unionist expected seats by 0.4.
2027 Assembly Election Forecast

ALT 2027 Assembly Election Forecast

10
6
23
12,024
more replies
The model assumes a unionist -> nationalist swing in Upper Bann. If this doesn't materialise an SF gain could be at the expense of Alliance.
An Upper Bann projection

ALT An Upper Bann projection

2
1,068
East L/Derry looks set to be very close.
A projection for East Londonderry

ALT A projection for East Londonderry

1
1,009
Load more