Looking to survive. Authenticity wins. Sharing mistakes is more important than sharing wins. @packers part owner.
Plant City, FL
Joined May 2019
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88% of 232 NVIDIA $NVDA EMPLOYEES SURVEYED DO NOT WANT THEIR STOCK OPTIONS TO IMPLODE
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“Not extending SpaceX contract beyond middle of next year”
That is 1/3 of $SPCX revenue.. 💀
Interesting remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with the sell side:
- Anthropic has the stability and the better talent that open source lacks.
- The AI market is winner take all. As long as we execute properly, we will take all of it.
- The contract with SpaceX will not be extended beyond the middle of next year.
- Developing Opus 5.5 cost more than $10 billion.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The remarks are unverified second-hand notes from a Barclays analyst call on Anthropic meetings, not official statements. Poster corrected $10B cost to full Claude 5.5 family; filings show SpaceX deals extend to 2029 but terminable after early 2027 on 90 days notice.
x.com/jukan05/status…
fourweekmba.com/ai-anthropics-…
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
This would be a great project for actuarial studies college programs.
Given the purchase price, market price, tenants age, expected capital gain over that period, discount rates, etc., what is the maximum price you should pay for this loft?
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The Jensen defense by prominent business and political leaders is the pinnacle of the "white collar crime is legal" era in America.
The blue wave was mere days ago and the billionaires are already donating money to build public parks again.
New: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky is committing $100 million to SF parks in what Mayor Lurie's administration says will be the largest contribution the city has ever received from 1 donor. sfchronicle.com/sf/article/a…
This is why I continue to believe in my economic consolidation into big tech thesis - AI is supercharging big tech to move at startup speed. Thus their distribution is even more valuable than before.
big co’s are shipping at a cadence that was previously associated almost exclusively with startups. maybe even faster than startups. every day i open an app by a lab or even a public co & there are so many changes, & features.
that’s pretty nuts cuz once upon a time software updates of this magnitude used to ship like once every 6 months or even once a year.
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Trump was born to be a gay comedian in NYC.
Unfortunately for us, he was also born into extreme wealth and an anti-gay father. So he repressed his inner calling - and endlessly searches for the attention he would have had on stage.
That’s everything you need to know about Trump
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Expecting a pretty bad Monday.
$QQQ +1.5% the day after dropping 6-7% feels like the worst of all scenarios. Would have preferred continued selling for exhaustion (or of course a complete reversal like tariff taco day).
This gives bulls a shred of hope, just to rip hearts out.
$TSLA - TESLA TO END CYBERTRUCK PRODUCTION IN MAJOR AI PIVOT
Elon Musk announced Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027, freeing capacity at Gigafactory Texas for Cybercab robotaxi production.
The Cybertruck fell far short of Tesla's 250,000 annual sales target.
US sales dropped 48% in 2025 to just 20,237 vehicles, with another 38% decline through September 2026.
Tesla is now doubling down on AI-powered autonomous driving as its next major growth opportunity.
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If you don’t think it’s over, you should be buying here.
If you think it’s over, you should be selling here.
Subscribe to my Substack.
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I find it cute when people discuss valuations of memory stocks as if anyone trading them gives a shit about p/e and isn’t just momentum trading.
Today I met with a veteran investor who argued that memory stocks are not cheap even at a P/E of 3. Below is an edited version of our conversation.
Memory LTAs are basically meaningless. The best the LTAs being signed today can do is get customers to shoulder part of the memory makers' capex. Once prices fall, customers will gladly forfeit their deposits (prepayments) and walk away from the LTAs.
Historically, whenever prices fell more than 60% from the peak, customers broke their LTAs even after signing them.
So even if a 2027 shortage is certain and the stocks trade at a P/E of 3 on 2027 operating profit, 2028 operating profit is uncertain, which makes it hard to justify a higher valuation.
He went on to argue that even if 2028 operating profit were certain, we would still have to account for 2029 operating profit.
I pushed back and asked why the market doesn't discount TSMC the same way. Why does TSMC get such a high valuation? Wouldn't TSMC also take a big hit if the AI boom fades?
His answer: the problem was how violently memory prices rose in the first place.
If memory makers had raised prices in a healthy way like TSMC, it might be a different story. But because they hiked prices like a commodity, the market has no choice but to treat memory stocks like commodity stocks.
Even if memory makers stay in shortage through 2030, he said, the market will price in the risk of oversupply in 2031.
He closed his argument this way: even at 3x 2027 earnings, if memory prices fall in 2028 by enough to break LTAs, that 3x multiple on 2027 works out to 7.8 to 10x on 2028. So current valuations are not cheap.
