Plot + Scatter

Our Canadian Election Explorer returns, newly updated for 2019: plotandscatter.com/canada-el… Would love to hear your feedback! #cdnpoli

Thanks, Dan. So glad to hear it — and the feeling’s mutual! And thanks again, Andy.

ICYMI last week, our latest viz: How blue is Alberta? An interactive history of regionality in Canadian elections plotandscatter.com/canadian-… – at Downtown, Vancouver

Don’t know who wrote it, but it’s a nice overview — and the linked visualizations are worth checking out! – at Downtown, Vancouver

Thanks, Peter! A couple more election-related visualizations in the pipeline… – at Downtown, Vancouver

Not bad for a simple model. Hope to expand on this, including comparing with predictions based on last-available *polling* (as opposed to *actual* results), later in the week. – at Downtown, Vancouver

On a regional basis, the model correctly predicted ridings as follows: Atlantic 25/32 (78%) Quebec 66/78 (85%) Ontario 111/121 (92%) Prairies 25/28 (89%) Alberta 34/34 (100%) British C. 38/42 (90%) Territories 2/3 (67%) – at Downtown, Vancouver

Using 2015 results + by-elections since as a baseline, and feeding in actual regional vote shares from Monday, the model correctly predicted the result in 301/338 ridings (89%). The two worst ridings in terms of error, as you might expect, were Vancouver Granville and Beauce. – at Downtown, Vancouver

How effective is a regionally-weighted swing model (of the kind used in our app at plotandscatter.com/canada-el…) at predicting election results? Here are the preliminary findings based on this week’s election. – at Downtown, Vancouver

How blue is Alberta? Very! This election result is in no way historically special. Interactively explore regional party support in elections since 1968 with our new visualization: plotandscatter.com/canadian-… #cdnpoli #elxn43 – at Downtown, Vancouver

For anyone who wants to work with the preliminary results from last night’s election released by @ElectionsCan_E, the long format can be a little annoying. I put them into wide CSV format: gist.github.com/hangler/0554… May have errors: caveat downloader. #cdnpoli #elxn43 – at Downtown, Vancouver

(The reason for this is that the regionally-weighted swing model distributes that shift most heavily in areas the Conservatives were already strong in, i.e. AB / SK.) – at Downtown, Vancouver

…(i.e. Liberals at 31.0%), they would only have had ~50% chance of winning a minority. Again, this is assuming a regionally-weighted swing, usual disclaimers apply, etc, etc. But still. – at Downtown, Vancouver

One interesting finding: a swing model (using regional weights from last night) suggests that the Liberal vote was so efficient that even had the Conservatives won 36.5% of the vote *exclusively at the expense of the Liberals*… – at Downtown, Vancouver

New version of the Canadian Election Explorer deployed, now with preliminary Elections Canada results from last night: plotandscatter.com/canada-el… #cdnpoli #elxn43 – at Downtown, Vancouver

For posterity: our simple regionally-weighted election app (plotandscatter.com/canada-el…), using CBC Poll Tracker regional values, gives L144 • C119 • N42 • BLQ 31 • G2. Only a few hours till we know for sure… – at Downtown, Vancouver

A three-party coalition would seem even more unstable than a two-party one. If (and it’s a big “if”!) the actual results on Monday follow the polls as they are now, a return trip to the ballot box in the near future seems likely. #cdnpoli #elxn43 – at Downtown, Vancouver

At least with these figures, the number of available two-party coalitions is relatively low, reflecting just how fractured public opinion appears to be. CON + NDP seems statistically likely, but is perhaps politically less so. LIB + NDP only works ~56% of the time. – at Downtown, Vancouver

This was with the polls set to the current CBC Poll Tracker values (newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec…), with 1000 simulations. Note that our (very simple) model is a bit more bullish on the odds of a Conservative victory. – at Downtown, Vancouver

Lots of talk of minority governments lately! The Insights view, newly added to our tool (plotandscatter.com/canada-el…), simulates elections and shows statistically likely outcomes. A large variety of possible minority coalitions, given current polling numbers. #cdnpoli #elxn43 – at Downtown, Vancouver