I look for mispriced markets
Joined November 2021
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An earlier post from one of the victims…shows how fragile life is
Florida LearJet crash victims ID'd as tech entrepreneur, toddler kids, wife and nanny trib.al/5ihSQm8
Texas Senate polls are basically tied.
Poly has Talarico at 70c.
6M early votes in and everyone thinks they can read them.
At 70c you're paying favorite prices for a coin flip. I'd rather hold dry powder till the first counties drop Tuesday.
$ETH funding most negative since the June bottom.
Bitfinex whales sitting on the biggest long stack since 2022.
Somebody's wrong. Usually it's the side paying funding.
$ETH is doing what it does best.
Making retail uncomfortable while whales quietly increase their long exposure.
3.6x more longs than august.
the market doesn't owe anyone a bounce, but this positioning is definitely something i'm keeping an eye on.
$SPCX back at the $135 IPO price.
161% revenue growth last quarter and it's trading like a lockup dump. Because it is one.
Nibbling here, more under $130.
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028
The numbers that came out are insane
There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated
* This is not investment advice!!!
** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder
*** Past performance is not indicative of future results
If you panic sell every red candle, good. You already know your pain point. Set the stop there before you enter, not after.
$BTC 81k to 76k on a fed hold + binance hack headlines
$1.1B in longs gone
Whales took ~$202M of the dip
my dry powder line is 75.7, the 50 week.
Not chasing the bounce
You know Polymarket execs are sitting there laughing at the fact this whole Binance thing just saved them from public backlash
Spurs and Wemby trying to give me a fucking heart attack on the first bet
Spurs win ✅
Onto game 2
Thesis: Spurs win their next 8 games
Going to start with $100 and go all in each game on @yeet
$102 ➡️ $118
Thesis: Spurs win their next 8 games
Going to start with $100 and go all in each game on @yeet
$102 ➡️ $118
Kalshi has El-Sayed ~68% in Michigan
Michigan traders alone? 49%
Out of state money is pricing the poll (+6) but locals are pricing radically different.
There’s some value here if you can guess which side is right…
Somebody's wrong by 19 points
Turn any X article into your own audio book
No more book marking and dreading to read it later
Enjoy👇
x.ai/bot/pmo9jh3U43d0OIqMps2…
Want to make money betting on NBA?
Built a Grok Bot that runs my NBA full-game model
It includes:
- Monte Carlo power ratings (ORtg/DRtg, pace, rest/travel)
- EV gate so it only flags TRACK picks (3%+ EV, 1.5+ pts)
- CLV tracker vs close (beat rate first, not just W/L)
- morning slate + post-night settle routines
- paper only. never places a real bet
Worked out the kinks then turned it into a free template called NBA Edge
Install it and it:
1. asks where your model lives + your timezone
2. sets morning slate + night settle
3. runs today's board through the EV gate
4. only shows TRACK flags with edge / EV / book
5. settles CLV after tip
grab it here: x.ai/bot/DZBbnEq-K8u4vHOUn8a…
It’s time to make shitposting multiplanetary
I’m joining the team at @X to lead Product.
I am a huge believer in @SpaceX's mission to extend human consciousness to the stars, so it’s time to make shitposting multiplanetary.
X is the best way to find out what’s happening in the world right now and talk about it. The team has been working tirelessly to make X a better place and product for the people who love it, and many have noticed the recent momentum. My goal is to help accelerate that momentum for our community, new users, and businesses globally by continuing to make this product beautiful and useful.
We are twenty years in, but it truly feels like X’s next chapter will be our greatest. I look forward to your ideas and feedback; I’m sure the replies will be measured and magnanimous.
Mom & Dad always said family is all there is and I used to roll my eyes…
Peers come and go. You only get so much time with the ones who actually stick. Crazy how having kids now changes your perspective on life.
Raising more than $SPCX does not mean it is worth more than SpaceX
Philly missing Hurts, Smith, Wicks and the total is still 44
Under -110
This game is gonna be ugly
