Tilewa Adebajo's #CFG Advisory of 23 October 2026 accepts that Nigeria's stabilisation is real and argues that public finances are now the main threat to its durability. The official record supports his starting point. Real GDP grew 4.43% in Q2 2026, inflation eased to 14.63% in September, the #MonetaryPolicyRate stands at 23%, and the current account recorded a US$7.54bn surplus in Q2. His fiscal warning carries weight, and the figure he anchors it on reads differently once its scope is clear. The 124% ratio of federal interest to revenue in H1 2026 covers six months and the federal account alone, and the Finance Ministry reports that it fell from 156% a year earlier. #Fitch puts the general government ratio at 27%, almost double the 14% median for 'B'-rated sovereigns. Estimates of the 2026 deficit range from 3.5% to 6.41% of GDP, and the #IMF's 2026 Article IV linked a 2.7% of GDP statistical discrepancy to spending outside the published accounts. Domestic borrowing is rising into year-end. The @DMONigeria plans N5.75trn of bond offers in Q4, which Proshare's computation puts at 2.31 times Q3 allotments, while 95.09% of Q1 capital importation was portfolio money. Tilewa Adebajo's 8% to 10% growth benchmark is the ambition we should strive for, as progress toward it will depend on revenue that matches forecasts, bankable projects, and a reconciled fiscal account. READ MORE>>> proshare.co/articles/nigeria… via @proshare @ecopoliticsNG

What to Expect from the Markets this Week – 261026 Nigeria’s financial markets closed the week ended 23Oct26 with mixed results across asset classes. Banking system liquidity rose to N6.94trn from N6.28trn, and Standing Deposit Facility placements reached N6.78trn. Over the same week, the naira weakened, the NGX All Share Index fell for a fourth straight week, and average yields on short- and long-dated FGN bonds rose. In the money market, the Open Repo Rate held at 20.00%, and the overnight rate eased 2bps to 20.36%. Average Treasury bill yields rose 1bp to 17.98%, and OMO bill yields fell 11bps to 18.42%. Average short- and long-term FGN bond yields rose 37bps and 17bps to 16.11% and 15.63%, respectively, while mid-term yields slipped 4bps to 16.68%. At the 19Oct26 FGN bond auction, subscriptions of N1.75trn matched the amount on offer. Total allotment came to N2.02trn, 15.67% above the offer size, with noncompetitive allotments accounting for the excess. The reopened 16.79% FGN SEP 2036 drew N925.35bn against N800bn offered and cleared at 17.29%. The reopened 19.00% FGN FEB 2034 cleared at 16.99%, which is 51bps below its marginal rate at the January 2026 reopening. In the currency market, the naira depreciated 2.17% to N1,361.84 per US dollar at the NFEM and 0.36% to N1,375 in the parallel market, so the premium between the two rates narrowed to 0.97% from 2.83%. The NGX ASI fell 0.13% to 247,222.27 points, and market capitalisation closed at N160.52trn. 55 equities declined and 20 advanced. Among the sectoral indices, the Insurance index fell 2.79%, the Oil and Gas index 2.55% and the Banking index 0.67%, while the Industrial Goods index rose 1.95%. Turnover rose to 2.02bn shares worth N110.77bn from 1.66bn shares worth N98.09bn the previous week, although the number of deals fell to 173,113 from 184,632. On the NASD OTC market, the NSI eased 0.16% to 4,345.02 points, and traded volume fell 95.33%. Brent rose 8.46% over the week to US$117.13 per barrel, and WTI rose 6.52% to US$103.44, gains the report associates with Houthi drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities. Brent now stands 90.05% above its 31 December 2025 level of US$61.63. Gold fell 3.72% to US$4,010 per ounce and silver 5.89% to US$53.96, which the report links to renewed inflation concerns and the possibility of a US Federal Reserve rate hike. On the policy side, the National Economic Council endorsed a 90-day action plan built on five priorities, including food affordability and tax harmonisation. The Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled Capital Market Masterplan 2.0, which targets market growth from about N250tn to N750tn by 2036. FAAC distributions for October rose 4% to N2.428trn. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO, closes on 27Oct26 after a two-week extension from 13 October. On 28Oct, the calendar includes the NTB auction, rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and the UK budget. The preliminary Q3’26 US GDP estimate follows on 29Oct26 and the Bank of Japan decision on 30Oct26. Proshare @TheAnalystNG Research expects money market rates to stay near the lower end of the policy corridor and FGN bond yields to hover around current levels. It expects equities to follow a similar path, with selective buying in fundamentally strong, dividend-paying stocks providing limited support. READ MORE>>> proshare.co/articles/what-to… via @proshare