808

Congratulations to the new Chief of Staff, @StephenM. Double down on the agenda. Too many people are demanding a change to tough policies because they were unpopular in the midterms. That’s foolish and cowardly. The short term unpopularity of a policy does not make the policy wrong. The President’s priority should be long term benefits (like an Iran without a nuke), not short term popularity.

Sadly, what's happening today will happen more and more often Multi-manager platform blows up --> triggers simultaneous degrossing across several trillion of platform hedge fund exposure --> quant hedge funds pile on --> market crashes Way too much money has gone into these strategies

Your long-term poker results come down to: - 10% IQ - 20% studying - 70% making good decisions when you're tired or emotional

A Republican sweep was all but assured today. Not because of how bad polling is. Not because of how bad Dem candidates are. Not because of how easily betting markets are manipulated. Nor because of how broken economic sentiment trackers are. It’s because this admin has a plan. This admin is aware that we are at a pivotal juncture in the history of this country. We have to get AI right. We have to decouple from China. Not the U.S. from China. The collective west has to be torn away completely. We need to crush Canada to show the Europeans what it costs to step out of line. We need to re-industrialize *before* robotics starts to ramp. We need to regime change Iran *before* drones become a lot more lethal with onboard AI. We need to regime change left-leaning South American countries *before* Europe attempts to say no when we force them to decouple from China. And if Trump is a lame duck for two years navigating any of this will be impossible. And because the actions that lead to the current point are only rational if there is a decoupling plan at the end of all this the only conclusion one can make is that the admin is far more sanguine about today’s results than literally everyone else. And because wall st is terrible at framing and betting on unquantifiable scenarios. And because I have closely observed how the pollsters and pundits have attempted to model elections. And because I understand the economic divergence that has occurred between Dems and repubs under this admin. I feel perfectly comfortable putting my reputation on the line. Because if I’m wrong I’m not just wrong about elections. I’m probably also wrong about the strategic capacity of the current admin. And if they didn’t put sufficient thought into navigating the midterms all is lost anyways. Republican sweep. Decoupling next. Never blackpill. 🫡

Tonight, the American people sent a clear message — they want a politics that brings people together rather than divides them, and leaders who offer concrete solutions to the challenges they face. These results were only possible because outstanding candidates stepped forward in every region of the country — including in areas once considered long shots. They came from different backgrounds and represented a range of political perspectives, but were united by shared values, a belief in public service, and a commitment to putting the people of their districts and states first. We also owe a debt of gratitude to the thousands of election officials and volunteers from both parties who helped ensure a smooth election and carried out one of the most essential functions of our democracy. While this administration has another two years in office, our job now is to roll up our sleeves, make changes wherever we have the power to do so, prevent further damage, and lay the groundwork for the future.

Does the unfolding blue wave make it more or less likely that Trump escalates to major attacks on Iranian infrastructure?

Impeach