Thesis: $HYPE will do $4B of revenue in 2030 (up 8x from ~$500m run rate today) and be valued at $230/token (up 3.5x from today) NOT as a better crypto exchange but as the #1 winner of RWA perps. Take: Market is missing that Hyperliquid is NOT JUST a crypto exchange but is becoming THE default venue for investors trading global markets 24/7 from equities and commodities to FX, indices and pre-IPO companies -- taking share from ICE / CME (combined ~$17B of annual revenue) not Binance. Price Target: We believe Hyperliquid will be a $230/token in 2030 (up 251% from today) with $4B revenue in 2030 revenue. $4B of revenue at 25x P/S implies $104B in outstanding market cap & $230B of FV in 2030. Core Assumptions: > Hyperliquid becomes a generational business from the growth of RWAs perps not crypto. > Assume $HYPE captures 0.50% of entire 2030 Notational Trading Volume, taking share from CME and ICE. > Hyperliquid processes ~$21T of annual RWA volume by 2030, at roughly 1.6bps blended take rate (perps is 2 bps, HIP-3 is 1 bps), that generates approximately $3.2B of transaction revenue > HIP-3 is the #1 growth driver of $HYPE revenue moving forward (50%+ of transaction revenue, up from 15% today) > Market is missing stablecoin revenue which will contribute another ~$1B annual revenue with $25B of supply and 4% reserve yield. Full memo to drop tomorrow at 10am ET Happy Hyperliquid Summit Day in NYC. Hyperliquid.

The first Thesis by @artemis is out! Thesis is an investing show where analysts, investors, and founders come on to defend one clear market view. Our first episode is with the stablecoin / fintech goats @HadickM @ElBarto_Crypto. We talk about who wins and loses from $OUSD and what Open Standard means for $CRCL. Bonus: Rob nailed the prediction on the USMNT win over Bosnia :) Enjoy 💜

.@wallstreetbets is doing it again. For a decade, Wendy’s on r/wallstreetbets meant one thing: You blew up your account. The joke was simple: lose everything trading options, and your next stop is living behind the Wendy’s dumpster. It was never really about $WEN. Until now. Year-to-date, our Reddit data shows ~16,800 comments mentioning “Wendy’s” across r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, and r/investing. Most of that was culture. Roughly 1 in 6 comments literally mentioned a “dumpster.” Thousands more referenced working there, the drive-thru, or Frostys. The actual cashtag, $WEN, barely showed up. In other words, 95%+ of the Wendy’s conversation was the meme. Then the stock broke. $WEN came into this setup near a 52-week low, down more than 45% over the past year. The business was under pressure from slowing traffic, higher beef costs, weaker consumers, and ugly same-store sales. The Q1 print told the story: U.S. same-restaurant sales fell 7.8%, net income dropped, and adjusted EBITDA declined 10.6%. The stock got cheap. The dividend yield pushed toward distressed-value territory. Then the activist angle entered the chat. Nelson Peltz and Trian own roughly 16% of Wendy’s and have reportedly explored funding for a potential take-private bid. No formal offer has been made, but the ingredients are there: A broken stock. An activist with a large stake. A new CEO. A new CFO. A turnaround narrative. A possible take-private. A heavily shorted float. Reddit noticed. And this week, the meme finally crossed over into the ticker. Reddit $WEN mentions exploded to 602, by far the biggest spike of the year. At the same time, the stock ripped to $7.40 after-hours on June 23, up 18%. Is this the next Gamestop?

Took a small position in $UBER recently -AV risk to Uber is less than people think, given @Uber loyalty -Their membership program has been increasing and has more members than @Walmart

I just wrote an article about the SaaSpocalypse and why I think the market is wrong on $CRM $NOW and $WDAY on @artemis. Please see below artemis.ai/stevenfiorillo/ar…

Coinbase is the winner of AI-native finance. We believe $COIN can be a ~$300B+ company (6x from today) Artemis open sources the BEST Coinbase financial model using onchain data. You can now build models like the BEST analysts. We believe Coinbase is WINNING in stablecoins, agentic commerce – not just as a crypto exchange. Here’s the core assumptions > Stablecoin supply reaches ~$3T in 2031 (~US Treasury official estimates) > USDC is 30% of stablecoin supply > Agentic Commerce ~$7.5T in yearly spend in 2031 > Coinbase Agentic Commerce is able to monetize and captures 1bp of the entire TAM > Net transaction revenue grows 11% CAGR > Subscription & Services goes from 40% of total revenue to 65% of revenue in 2031 In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income. At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today) Full 12 page thesis drops at 5pm ET 👀

Neobanks spent 15 years handing rent to sponsor banks, but now they don't have to. In the past 4 months: - @coinbase applied for a national trust charter - @nubank received approval to create a US bank - @krakenfx got a Fed Master Account They can now access legacy payment rails. At the same time, traditional fintechs are plugging into global crypto rails: - @SoFi launched SoFiUSD - @stripe acquired @Stablecoin , @privy_io and launched @tempo - @RobinhoodApp is launching Robinhood Chain The stack is getting crushed from both ends and the winners will own both sides of it. Let's dive into what's happening 👇

OpenAI will be the #1 fastest growing public SaaS co > $13B ARR + 137% YoY > $1B of enterprise value > 76.9x EV/ARR (Palantir trades at 110.6x 🤷) > 84% rule of 40 revenue growth + LTM FCF (#3) >-50% net income margins (estimate -$5B of burn in '25) Congrats @sama and @OpenAI $OPENAI

INTRODUCING: Part 2 of our Stablecoin Payments Report! Co-written with @CastleIslandVC and @dragonflyvc, with data now through August 2025. Stablecoin payments hit $10.2B monthly, up 70% since February and 137% since Aug '24, now at a $122B annual rate. Here’s how the market evolved in just 6 months 🧵