punkquidity (@punkquidity) header
punkquidity (@punkquidity) profile picture

Yield Risk Analyst. Every yield has someone paying it, and I check who. Stablecoins, lending, perps

DMs open for research & collab
Joined July 2023
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buybacks didn't save DeFi tokens that lost half their revenue in my last post 12 of 16 tokens that pay holders still fell, so i widened the check to 26 DeFi tokens over the past year for scale, $ETH fell 38% and $SOL fell 46% over the same year what i found: - 14 tokens lost half their revenue or more on DefiLlama (last 90 days vs the same 90 days a year ago), and all 14 fell, even $CAKE, $JUP and $SPK, which bought back tokens - the median drop for these 14 was 44%, for the other 12 it was 11% - the 5 tokens that went up ($HYPE, $RAY, $SKY, $UNI, $MORPHO) all kept more than half their revenue in that window, $RAY only after a launchpad wave in september - each of the 5 also got something new over the past year, a fee switch with a 100M burn at @Uniswap, new markets and a fund treated as burned at @HyperliquidX, that launchpad wave at $RAY, cut emissions at $SKY and Apollo as a buyer at @Morpho - keeping revenue wasn't enough on its own, $SYRUP and $LDO kept most of theirs and still fell 60% to 70% a buyback is paid from revenue, so when revenue falls the buyback shrinks with it the tokens that rose had both revenue that didn't halve and a fresh reason for someone to buy $ENA has neither yet, fees are down 63%, team unlocks keep adding new tokens every month, while the fee switch needs $USDe at $7.5B and it's $5.0B now
neither for $ENA holders because this loop pays them $0 they get no revenue until the fee switch arms, and that needs $USDe supply to average $7.5B today it's $5.0B to be fair, paying holders doesn't guarantee a token goes up i took 18 DeFi tokens that earn real fees, from $HYPE and $UNI to $CRV and $PENDLE 16 of them pay holders through buybacks, burns or staking, and 12 of those 16 still fell over the past year $MORPHO pays nothing and still went up until the switch arms, holding $ENA is a bet on $USDe supply growing
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Aero's Nvidia pool shows 9,000% but paid out only $1,250 in a day that's all the $AERO @aeroxyz paid to this $475K pool on Robinhood Chain, about 95% a year you only get near 9,000% if your money sits in a very narrow range right at the price one contract keeps dozens of narrow positions lined up around the price and has restaked them around 800 times in a day staying in range is the hard part last night NVDA in this pool fell 8% in an hour after the US market closed, and every deposit the price passed through turned into NVDA on the way down the yield is real, i just don't want to get paid in $AERO for catching a falling Nvidia
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a new @aave proposal would move $3.5M a year from lenders to the DAO @Token_Logic, a paid service provider to the Aave DAO, proposed raising the share of interest the DAO keeps on dozens of assets borrowers would pay the same rates, so every extra dollar for the DAO comes out of what lenders earn the biggest cuts hit older or declining markets: - $DAI on Polygon: $270 a year less per $10,000 - $USDC on Avalanche V3, where Aave V4 now runs too: $61 less - frozen V2 on Ethereum, where the DAO's cut goes from 85% to 99.99% the proposal says higher cuts there should push activity to the markets the DAO wants to grow if it passes, stables left on these markets will earn less on purpose
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Ethena's own $383M loan is the only reason $USDe grew in the last 30 days stablecoins lost $14.9B over the same 30 days, while $USDe looks like one of the few big ones that still grew but all of that growth sits in this one wallet, which borrowed that $USDC on @aave and keeps $426M of $USDe and $sUSDe there outside that wallet, $USDe shrank 5%, about as much as $USDT that one @ethena wallet now holds almost 9% of all $USDe
Ethena is Aave's biggest $USDC borrower at $382M i spoke with the @ethena team and they confirmed it's company funds the loan costs $47K a day in interest, while its $USDe and $sUSDe collateral earns $10K a day i can't see its offchain side if you lend $USDC on @aave's Ethereum market, the rate formula puts your 3.8% near 2.8% if this loan closed today 54% of that gap is Ethena's interest, the rest is every other borrower paying a higher rate
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Aave's $ETH pool on Arbitrum is missing 29,835 $ETH the same $rsETH hacker borrowed there too, and in may Aave wrote off his debt, which stayed in the pool as a $60M deficit so $3,000 of every $10,000 lent there has no cash or loan behind it, 12x worse than in the main pool the 30,766 $ETH that @arbitrum froze from him sits in an Aave LLC wallet under a US court order in april Aave Labs wrote that this @aave market "is not expected to absorb bad debt from this incident" @KelpDAO fully backed $rsETH again by late may, and the deficit in this pool hasn't moved since
Aave's main $ETH pool still has a $109M deficit from the $rsETH hack in may Aave seized the attacker's 53,400 $rsETH, which went to refill @KelpDAO's bridge the $ETH he borrowed became a deficit in the pool, so for every $10,000 of $ETH lent there $250 has no cash or loan behind it Umbrella stakers who insure the pool won't be slashed because Aave left this deficit to the DAO i found no update on it since june @aave when will the DAO cover it?
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Ethena's own wallet now holds 60% of the $USDe on Aave Core @LlamaRisk's new proposal for @aave Core would freeze several assets and keep $USDe if it meets the criteria the same proposal notes that 3 positions hold 69% of the $rsETH debt this @ethena wallet owes 14% of all $USDC borrowed on Core, so the same share of what $USDC lenders earn there comes from Ethena fine with $USDe staying, so why does one wallet at 60% get no mention when 3 positions at 69% did?
Ethena is Aave's biggest $USDC borrower at $382M i spoke with the @ethena team and they confirmed it's company funds the loan costs $47K a day in interest, while its $USDe and $sUSDe collateral earns $10K a day i can't see its offchain side if you lend $USDC on @aave's Ethereum market, the rate formula puts your 3.8% near 2.8% if this loan closed today 54% of that gap is Ethena's interest, the rest is every other borrower paying a higher rate
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one night made almost all of HLP's 25% APR 92% of its pnl this past month came from sunday night, when HLP's liquidator took over most of two liquidated $ETH longs that night earned depositors about $2M, roughly what HLP made from mid-april until then both traders lost $27M in total it goes both ways, a week earlier HLP lost $532K in one day on another liquidation if the 25% is why you're depositing, know it's mostly one night, and you can't pull out for 4 days
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half of all $AERO gets $0 of that revenue @aeroxyz pays all of it to stakers, roughly $150 a year per $1,000 staked, but people stake for almost 4 years on average @Pumpfun and @HyperliquidX spend theirs on buybacks of $PUMP and $HYPE, no staking needed $AERO is down 51% over the last year, and the half that never staked got none of that revenue
Only 3 projects share $100M+ in revenue annually with their token holders: 1. Hyperliquid 2. Pump Fun 3. Aerodrome What's impressive is that all of them went live only 3 years ago.
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the wait to exit Maple's $syrupUSDC went from 32 hours to 3 minutes 40 exit requests were paid since nov 10, none waited more than 20 minutes respect to @maplefinance here, the exit is the first thing i check and today it works Maple's founder says slow days happen when cash is held for planned loans, so one can still come back
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Aave's main $ETH pool still has a $109M deficit from the $rsETH hack in may Aave seized the attacker's 53,400 $rsETH, which went to refill @KelpDAO's bridge the $ETH he borrowed became a deficit in the pool, so for every $10,000 of $ETH lent there $250 has no cash or loan behind it Umbrella stakers who insure the pool won't be slashed because Aave left this deficit to the DAO i found no update on it since june @aave when will the DAO cover it?
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the number on the screenshot is in wei, so it reads 52,964 WETH, and 0xC02a…6Cc2 is the WETH token for context, april's funding plan listed 25,000 ETH from the Aave DAO and 14,570 ETH of partner pledges, i just can't see any of it reaching this pool onchain
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only 1% of the $200M PT-USDe Ethena minted yesterday was bought Ethena put no $USDe behind it, and the rest still sits in its own multisig one wallet bought 95% of that 1% it withdrew $2M of $USDe from @aave today to lend to @ethena at a fixed 5.8% for a year that's only a bit above the 5% $sUSDe paid last month i'd want more for a year with no easy exit, since each @pendle_fi pool you could sell into holds about $10K
Ethena can mint $200M of PT-USDe tonight without depositing $USDe @pendle_fi compares them to discount notes onchain the contract behind each maturity holds $10K of $USDe for $35K of tokens, and it records the gap as debt that gap is unsold PT, minted on credit by Ethena's multisig this morning the same multisig queued $50M more per maturity, ready to mint at 20:02 UTC every PT it sells is a loan to @ethena at up to 6%, repaid in full only if Ethena keeps enough $USDe in the contract
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the wallet that lent $56M on Morpho Midnight belongs to Ethena @ethena shows it on its own backing dashboard as a @Morpho lending wallet so 54% of everything Midnight has ever lent came from $USDe backing for Ethena that's 1.2% of the backing Morpho's data shows those loans pay 3.9% fixed on average, mostly with $BTC as collateral thanks @JMSCavalheiro for spotting the wallet
one wallet lent $56M of Morpho Midnight's $100M+ in loans @Morpho celebrated this milestone today, so i looked at who is behind it on the borrower side 5 wallets owe 67% of the open loans, mostly with $BTC as collateral their average fixed rate on $USDC is about 4%, which is below the floating rate on @aave today 99% of the debt has to be repaid by dec 25 if this one wallet leaves after that, Midnight loses most of its lending
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one wallet lent $56M of Morpho Midnight's $100M+ in loans @Morpho celebrated this milestone today, so i looked at who is behind it on the borrower side 5 wallets owe 67% of the open loans, mostly with $BTC as collateral their average fixed rate on $USDC is about 4%, which is below the floating rate on @aave today 99% of the debt has to be repaid by dec 25 if this one wallet leaves after that, Midnight loses most of its lending
$100M+ in loans originated on Morpho Midnight Still day 1 for onchain fixed rate markets
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Ethena can mint $200M of PT-USDe tonight without depositing $USDe @pendle_fi compares them to discount notes onchain the contract behind each maturity holds $10K of $USDe for $35K of tokens, and it records the gap as debt that gap is unsold PT, minted on credit by Ethena's multisig this morning the same multisig queued $50M more per maturity, ready to mint at 20:02 UTC every PT it sells is a loan to @ethena at up to 6%, repaid in full only if Ethena keeps enough $USDe in the contract
New Pendle PT-USDe maturities are live: fixed duration markets for USDe. Pendle has added a number of new markets for USDe across 3-12 month maturities, with zero Ethena token incentives supporting these markets. Ethena will now also receive 50% of all fees generated via third-party operated Ethena Pendle pools which are due to the Pendle treasury. The new Pendle assets will be available on Ethereum, Base and Avalanche. More details below:
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for context, $USDe earns nothing inside these markets and Pendle's own page says only Ethena holds the YT, so the up to 6% comes from Ethena that's more than its own $sUSDe stakers got last month, about 5%, and if you want out before maturity each pool holds under $10K
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4 keys can rewrite the $32M Elysium bridge before you can exit getting your $HYPE out takes at least 5.5 days, while those keys need one transaction it's a Safe where any 4 of 11 sign, with no timelock between it and the bridge code that's normal for a new chain, the deployer wallet even removed its own upgrade rights already still, the bridge doubled since yesterday morning, so a lot more $HYPE now depends on those 4 keys just wanted you to know the risks before you bridge the docs plan open fraud proofs later, i'd add an upgrade delay longer than the exit to that list @Enter_Elysium
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for now the 5.5 days protect less than they sound: there's one whitelisted validator, and data availability runs on a single server by Conduit (their docs say so) the same Safe raised the L2 min gas price from 0.1 to 0.5 gwei on nov 9, with no delay
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World Liberty's $WLFI buyback looks 5% done since @worldlibertyfi posted the buyback wallet yesterday, the $WLFI/$USD1 pair on @Aster_DEX took about $500K of market buys the pair was almost dead before the buys come in equal chunks every 5 seconds, about $35K in most hours, with a few long breaks i can't tie these trades to their wallet onchain, but they started the same hour the wallet was posted at that pace the rest of the $10M they sent to Aster needs another 10 days or more slow is the right way to buy on a pair this thin
ethereum:0xda5e1988097297dcdc1f90d4dfe7909e847cbef6 buybacks are intended to strengthen WLFI governance participation by an active community of long-term holders. USD1 is an important part of the WLFI ecosystem. As USD1 supply grows, the potential economics associated with USD1 and overall ecosystem activity may also grow. WLFI buybacks may be funded from various sources. A substantial portion of USD1 gross revenue is paid to partners and service providers. Any resources available to support buybacks from USD1-related economics therefore depend on the amounts retained after partner distributions, direct costs and other obligations. Buybacks will be executed on Aster through this wallet: bscscan.com/address/0x0f5d11… The community can follow the wallet’s activity and buyback transactions onchain. The timing, size and execution of any buybacks will be determined based on available resources, applicable requirements and assessment of buyback impact on governance participation, and may be modified or discontinued at any time.
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