Melbourne, Australia
Joined October 2014
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gone early bendigo R6
Jokers grin $46 (3% chance vs 2.4% implied)
Ka Ying Cheer $11 (10.4% vs 9.8%)
Wingsandpropellers $13 (13.7% vs 8.3%)
Fav too short, good sectionals, first up and barrier:
Yes Yoshi $2.84 (25.5% (($3.92)) vs 35% implied)
lot of RBA hand wringing today, here is what has happened previously:
CR>>CPI
Econ breaks
RBA cuts with CPI >>target
CPI follows
however, they really stuffed up covid era
if you think the econ will slow, then they will be cutting soon (~Q2 27) and CPI will follow
Dutching Vauban and The Euphrates in the Geelong Cup, clearly the best two imo.
Wooton Verni not the worst at longer odds if it can run the trip, worth thinking an EW play.
LITZDEEL should be peaking so a decent chance here.
People on the left have been making this face an awful lot the last week. Come back to the middle, and reality where you can question and query each individual thing on its merit
the current trend in net worth is a little worse than 2011 but not as bad as 2008. cycles roughly average around 12 months with a bottom around 5-6 months.
either way, some pain is coming in 2027, but how much?
the biggest risk is the RBA not cutting quickly enough
the scariest part about the left going off the rails and allowing chaos is there are no good opposing candidates to vote for.
dark days
these four are clearly the best horses in each race, have very high % of winning and justify being in a multi.
you can make the case for some upsets but based on % this is the way to go.
1/9.75 = 10.5% implied prob of hitting, when it is more like 40% in reality
i asked AI to make a midterms dashboard for me, using the top 3 unbiased polls (if there are any) and it came up with this.. the big caveat being D51 senate IF poll leading Ds hang on to win
the trend in unemployment is still in no-mans land, but with only a few months before declines in net worth trends hit, you would def need to be concerned
First look at the Caulfield Cup and I have:
Cosmic Crusader (deserved fav)
Shes a Hustler
Half Yours
Royal Supremacy
KNIGHT'S CHOICE, MIDDLE EARTH, ENFJAAR & GREEN SPACES all should be ready to peak prep wise, but have big queries