tim | quant

Study the Effects of Options and how they fundamentally work in financial markets. With the Crypto Industry growing larger and institutionell adoption rising, it will become unavoidable that Options Volume will eventually dominate this market. This is something you can actually be "early" on. It takes work and its highly complex, but I truly believe that learning the mechanics behind this will be highly beneficial in the future to those who put the work in to understand them.

GM ☕️ There was one level you've heard me talk about arguably more than any other over the past weeks, and it just got hit: 77k. Overnight, BTC continued its sell-off and finally left the local range behind. 📊 Order Flow & Structure The sell-off was driven by a combination of longs closing out and aggressive shorts entering the market, pushing price lower. We eventually reached 77.2k, the nPOC of the previous range, which is currently providing some local support. This is a particularly important region within my broader trading plan. 💼 Positioning Three things have changed in my positioning: 1. Swing Short I've now closed approximately 70% of my original swing short in total, securing the majority of the profits from this move. 2. Delta-Neutral Long Hedge I've opened an automatic long swing position, sized to be delta-neutral against my remaining swing short exposure. The reasoning is straightforward: 77k is the first region within my plan where I'm becoming interested in swing positioning to the long side again. 3. Spot Accumulation I've also allocated further capital towards my spot portfolio, continuing my investment DCA approach. 🎯 Plan The task from here is relatively straightforward: We need to identify whether 77k can establish itself as a pivot point for another move higher, or whether my extended bearish scenario comes into play. Until then, my intraweekly base case remains a period of compression following the recent downside expansion. In other words, I expect a potential consolidation and range formation around 77k before the next meaningful directional move. For now, I'll let the market establish its next structure rather than anticipate it.

🚨 $BTC Is Going Crazy | What Is Happening Beneath the Headlines? Today has been a heavily news-driven session for crypto, and the order flow behind the moves is particularly interesting. Initially, we received very bullish news surrounding Hyperliquid, which also had a positive impact on BTC. However, price then reached its third retest of the local range POC. Once again, we saw a sweep of the highs without any meaningful acceptance above the level. What followed was a sharp sell-off. As of now, further uncertainty has entered the market following rumours of a potential Binance hack. Nothing has been officially confirmed so far, leaving the market in a state of heightened uncertainty. 📍 My Plan For me, this means one crucial thing: No new trades until the news-driven volatility has settled. It will be important to monitor the boundaries of the current mini range to assess whether we are preparing for further downside or potentially resolving back into the previous range. One thing is certain: Moves like today's are bringing us increasingly closer to the higher-timeframe target levels I outlined in my HTF analysis. For now, patience is the priority. There is no need to force trades in an environment where headlines are driving price discovery. Let the volatility settle. Then reassess the structure.

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... well well well 😂 not entirely over tho; downside was not that agressive and dVWAP + wVWAP remain below as potential support. lets see. secured mine now below the most recent low, so with partials taken its a minimal loss worst case now. lets see..

we need to flip 81.7 ASAP here or we will just get sent straight down again 😂

The type of Sh*t that happens when your $HYPE Long gets front-run by $0.30 💀

GM ☕️ $BTC fell back into its composite range overnight following two bearish tests of the mrPOC. So far, however, my overall game plan remains unchanged. 📊 Structure BTC is still holding within the wider value area, above the mrVAL. This is an important observation, as bullish strength has not yet meaningfully faded despite the rejection around the mrPOC. 🎯 Plan My primary scenario for a potential long is a sweep of the current poor lows, provided we see clear signs of absorption in the order book. I want to see sellers pushing into the lows without achieving meaningful downside progress. That would give me the confirmation needed to consider a long entry. If we instead break below the range without that key absorption signal, I'll shift my attention towards the 77k region, where the next nPOC provides a potential area of interest. As always, these levels are areas to monitor, not automatic entries. Order flow confirmation remains essential.

$BTC 📊 While Price is ranging, Spot is aggressively buying current regions. Cumulative Spot Delta is increasing throughout the entire process. When overlayed with the Perpetuals Delta, it becomes apparent that all set backs so far have been caused by perps as opposed to spot. We have now rejected the current range POC twice above, while still being able to hold price inside the wider value area. Structurally we do not gain much confluence here. But the flow and overall location are enough for me to still look out for longs around these potential support regions - especially given the agressive spot buying. My larger swing targets still remain unchanged (around 77k for now), but I also have to hedge myself against my broader swing short exposure via potential longs!

$BTC Local Order Flow Analysis 📊 To understand why BTC is breaking out of its local range, we need to look at the positioning that built up beforehand. 🔎 Order Flow Throughout the range, aggressive shorts continued entering the market without price meaningfully moving in their favour. Meanwhile, passive bids stacked below price and partially absorbed the persistent selling pressure. As short exposure accumulated, price eventually rotated value to the upside. This triggered further market buying as trapped shorts were forced to cover, adding fuel to the move. After sweeping the poor highs above the range, BTC returned to test the range VAH. Buyers stepped in and managed to defend the level; a key development that was also supported by Spot Delta, which continued to confirm the move higher. This resulted in a failure to return, and price is now testing the next nPOC. 📍 What I’m Watching Two scenarios matter most for today’s order flow: 1. Bullish continuation: Spot Delta continues to push higher, while aggressive buyers manage to drive price above the current nPOC. This would support further upside continuation. 2. Failed breakout: Buyers continue entering aggressively, but their activity fails to produce meaningful price progress. If buying gets absorbed near the highs, these late longs could become trapped. The key is not simply whether buyers are active, but whether their aggression translates into actual price progress.