I'm Rain | | Alpha Content | ⛓️ 🦅
Metaverse
Joined May 2022
- Tweets164K
- Following11.6K
- Followers116K
- Likes268K
Rain retweeted
$BTC lost its $85K breakout attempt, and the timing is worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin slipped nearly 3% toward $81.5K as Tesla’s Q3 capex missed expectations ($4.73B vs $7.96B forecast) and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3.5%.
But the technical setup concerns me more.
BTC rejected $84,840, keeping its pattern of lower highs intact.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin open interest recently reached $55.95B, up 4.5% in 24 hours.
To me, that’s a fragile combination: rising leverage, weakening risk appetite and a failed resistance test.
I’m watching $80K–$81.5K as the key support zone.
Holding it could keep the recovery alive, but reclaiming $84.8K is what would start changing my bias.
Will spot buyers defend support, or will leveraged positions turn another rejection into a deeper correction?
$BTC lost its $85K breakout attempt, and the timing is worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin slipped nearly 3% toward $81.5K as Tesla’s Q3 capex missed expectations ($4.73B vs $7.96B forecast) and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3.5%.
But the technical setup concerns me more.
BTC rejected $84,840, keeping its pattern of lower highs intact.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin open interest recently reached $55.95B, up 4.5% in 24 hours.
To me, that’s a fragile combination: rising leverage, weakening risk appetite and a failed resistance test.
I’m watching $80K–$81.5K as the key support zone.
Holding it could keep the recovery alive, but reclaiming $84.8K is what would start changing my bias.
Will spot buyers defend support, or will leveraged positions turn another rejection into a deeper correction?
Rain retweeted
$BTC ETFs pulled in $1.08B over three days.
Bullish, but still not convinced the bigger trend has changed yet.
Here’s why.
During Bitcoin’s three major rallies since 2024, ETFs averaged roughly $235M in daily inflows.
Since July, that average has been just $86M, despite BTC gaining 39%.
And days with $500M+ inflows have become much less frequent.
To me, the latest $1B is encouraging, but consistency matters more than a few strong sessions.
I’d want to see sustained demand above $200M/day before treating ETF flows as confirmation of another major rally.
Are institutions rebuilding positions, or are we overestimating what three days of inflows can tell us?
$BTC ETFs pulled in $1.08B over three days.
Bullish, but still not convinced the bigger trend has changed yet.
Here’s why.
During Bitcoin’s three major rallies since 2024, ETFs averaged roughly $235M in daily inflows.
Since July, that average has been just $86M, despite BTC gaining 39%.
And days with $500M+ inflows have become much less frequent.
To me, the latest $1B is encouraging, but consistency matters more than a few strong sessions.
I’d want to see sustained demand above $200M/day before treating ETF flows as confirmation of another major rally.
Are institutions rebuilding positions, or are we overestimating what three days of inflows can tell us?
Rain retweeted
Grayscale made easier to move $BTC, $ETH, $SOL and $XRP into traditional investment products.
But there’s a catch.
Direct crypto-to-share conversions require substantial capital: roughly $365K for BTC, $257K for XRP and $80K for SOL.
Plus intermediary fees and potential tax implications.
I see this as a useful step for institutional integration, but not necessarily a bullish catalyst.
Moving existing holdings into investment products doesn’t automatically create fresh demand.
Will this move attract new capital?
Introducing in-kind investing at Grayscale: contribute eligible digital assets directly in exchange for shares of a Grayscale product.
Benefits for investors include:
- Reduced burden of self-custody
- Potentially lower execution costs
- Incorporation into conventional portfolio management
In-kind is now available for 10 Grayscale products:
- Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF ($GAVA)
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF ($BTC)
- Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF ($GLNK)
- Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF ($ETH)
- Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF ($GDOG)
- Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF ($HYPG)
- Grayscale Solana Staking ETF ($GSOL)
- Grayscale Sui Staking ETF ($GSUI)
- Grayscale XRP Trust ETF ($GXRP)
- The Zcash ETF ($ZCSH)
Learn more about in-kind: grayscale.com/campaign/in-ki…
Grayscale made easier to move $BTC, $ETH, $SOL and $XRP into traditional investment products.
But there’s a catch.
Direct crypto-to-share conversions require substantial capital: roughly $365K for BTC, $257K for XRP and $80K for SOL.
Plus intermediary fees and potential tax implications.
I see this as a useful step for institutional integration, but not necessarily a bullish catalyst.
Moving existing holdings into investment products doesn’t automatically create fresh demand.
Will this move attract new capital?
Introducing in-kind investing at Grayscale: contribute eligible digital assets directly in exchange for shares of a Grayscale product.
Benefits for investors include:
- Reduced burden of self-custody
- Potentially lower execution costs
- Incorporation into conventional portfolio management
In-kind is now available for 10 Grayscale products:
- Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF ($GAVA)
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF ($BTC)
- Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF ($GLNK)
- Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF ($ETH)
- Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF ($GDOG)
- Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF ($HYPG)
- Grayscale Solana Staking ETF ($GSOL)
- Grayscale Sui Staking ETF ($GSUI)
- Grayscale XRP Trust ETF ($GXRP)
- The Zcash ETF ($ZCSH)
Learn more about in-kind: grayscale.com/campaign/in-ki…
Rain retweeted
$ZEC is up 12.5% today, but I’m more interested in where the bounce is happening.
After three consecutive red weeks, Zcash found buyers around $1,088 and is now trading near $1,272.
That’s a meaningful reaction from support, especially with the NU7 upgrade approaching on November 6, targeting a reduction in block confirmation times from 75 to 25 seconds.
But $1,375 is the level I’d watch next.
Reclaiming it would strengthen the recovery case. Rejection there could leave this looking like another relief rally after September’s $1,695 peak.
ZEC is still up roughly 148% YTD, so the bigger trend matters.
Is this the start of another leg higher, or just a bounce before sellers return?
$ZEC is up 12.5% today, but I’m more interested in where the bounce is happening.
After three consecutive red weeks, Zcash found buyers around $1,088 and is now trading near $1,272.
That’s a meaningful reaction from support, especially with the NU7 upgrade approaching on November 6, targeting a reduction in block confirmation times from 75 to 25 seconds.
But $1,375 is the level I’d watch next.
Reclaiming it would strengthen the recovery case. Rejection there could leave this looking like another relief rally after September’s $1,695 peak.
ZEC is still up roughly 148% YTD, so the bigger trend matters.
Is this the start of another leg higher, or just a bounce before sellers return?
Rain retweeted
$BTC at $83.4K, and I’m not convinced the next stop is $100K just yet.
The daily structure is improving, but there’s still work to do.
$80K–$82K has held as support, while $84K is the first level bulls need to reclaim.
Above that, $87.2K is the real test. A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $100K.
ETF inflows are returning, but Tuesday’s $23.2M is hardly enough to confirm a major shift in demand.
And with Brent above $110, inflation and Treasury yields remain risks.
My bias stays cautiously bullish above $80K, but I want to see volume behind the move.
Is $87.2K the beginning of a new leg higher, or where this recovery runs out of buyers?
$BTC at $83.4K, and I’m not convinced the next stop is $100K just yet.
The daily structure is improving, but there’s still work to do.
$80K–$82K has held as support, while $84K is the first level bulls need to reclaim.
Above that, $87.2K is the real test. A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $100K.
ETF inflows are returning, but Tuesday’s $23.2M is hardly enough to confirm a major shift in demand.
And with Brent above $110, inflation and Treasury yields remain risks.
My bias stays cautiously bullish above $80K, but I want to see volume behind the move.
Is $87.2K the beginning of a new leg higher, or where this recovery runs out of buyers?
$BTC volatility is getting unusually compressed.
Bollinger Band width is down to roughly $5,369, just 6.5% of BTC’s price and among the tightest readings in 2.5 years.
What caught my attention is what happened during the previous squeezes.
In May, a similar setup preceded a nearly 30% drop. In August, another was followed by a 35% rally.
Same signal. Completely different outcomes.
That’s why I’m watching $80K–$85K rather than trying to guess the direction.
A daily close above $85K with stronger volume would favor the upside. Losing $80K would put the lower support zones back in play.
The squeeze tells us volatility is compressed.
Price and volume still need to tell us where it’s going.
Rain retweeted
Really appreciate it Eddy, means a lot coming from you. Wouldn't it be cool if the wallet supported zcash too…? 😉
The best new private stablecoin wallet right now is @alcove_wallet. Nothing else is close.
- insanely fast (seconds, even for a cross-chain transfer)
- comically cheap (I'm seeing $0.38 on a $10k deposit)
- easy mobile UI, anybody can use
I think it's the next gen leader.
BRO WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THIS!?
I just turned a $500 pack into almost $18K.
Saw @Pumpfun had added pack openings through @Collector_Crypt and figured I’d give it a shot
Bought one Sports All-Star pack for $500
Opened it and there was a 1/1 LeBron James Black Finite Prizms staring back at me.
BGS 9. Valued at $18,500
I genuinely thought I was reading something wrong lmao
There was a direct sell option, so I hit it and got around $17.9K back almost instantly skipping the listing part
ONE pack. Nearly 36x
I know how ridiculously lucky this is, which makes the whole thing even more surreal.
Still staring at the screenshot
Rain retweeted
The AI selloff is becoming a broader test of risk appetite, and I think $BTC deserves attention here.
South Korea’s KOSPI dropped nearly 4%, while data center company Elice plunged around 30% on its IPO debut.
Two signals suggesting investors are becoming less willing to pay a premium for future AI growth.
What interests me is the potential impact on $BTC.
When investors reduce exposure to risk assets, crypto often gets caught in the same selling pressure.
But Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily have to follow tech stocks lower.
I’d watch whether BTC can show relative strength as AI-related equities struggle, especially if the selloff spreads to other markets.
If the AI selloff continues, will Bitcoin hold its ground?
The AI selloff is becoming a broader test of risk appetite, and I think $BTC deserves attention here.
South Korea’s KOSPI dropped nearly 4%, while data center company Elice plunged around 30% on its IPO debut.
Two signals suggesting investors are becoming less willing to pay a premium for future AI growth.
What interests me is the potential impact on $BTC.
When investors reduce exposure to risk assets, crypto often gets caught in the same selling pressure.
But Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily have to follow tech stocks lower.
I’d watch whether BTC can show relative strength as AI-related equities struggle, especially if the selloff spreads to other markets.
If the AI selloff continues, will Bitcoin hold its ground?
Rain retweeted
One thing I’ve learned about VIP programs in crypto?
The benefits matter, but understanding what actually drives your status matters just as much.
Last time, I explored @MEXC’s VVIP cashback benefits. This time, I checked my updated M-Score.
Currently sitting at 989 points in the Elite tier, with all five categories rated Good.
What caught my attention is how the new breakdown covers trading, assets, security, activity, and account tenure.
I like that it goes beyond showing a VIP badge and actually gives me a clearer picture of where I stand and what I can improve.
For me, that makes the whole system more useful.
Now I'm curious about yours.
What's your M-Score, and which category is your strongest? Drop yours below 👇
I’ve always found the term “VIP” slightly weird in crypto.
On the vast majority of exchanges, $100K in assets or $1M+ in 30D volume is a pretty common starting point.
The new VVIP structure by @MEXC completely change this traditional paradigm.
Everyone starts with an initial 350 M-Score and Standard status, without a specified asset balance or trading-volume requirement.
And after that??
M-Score is tied to capital or volume, sure, but security setup and daily activity also contribute.
So instead of: trade a lot → become VIP
it’s closer to: enter first → build your score → unlock higher tiers depending on your platform usage.
Standard already includes things like member vouchers and, under the Global/APAC Card promo, 4% cashback capped at 100 USDT/month.
If you make it to Elite, you can get up to 10% cashback with your MEXC Card, capped at 800 USDT a month.
🔗 Check your M-Score and current benefits on the VVIP page: mexc.com/user/m-score
⚠️ Digital assets and futures involve risk. Benefits and eligibility are subject to applicable conditions.
One thing I’ve learned about VIP programs in crypto?
The benefits matter, but understanding what actually drives your status matters just as much.
Last time, I explored @MEXC’s VVIP cashback benefits. This time, I checked my updated M-Score.
Currently sitting at 989 points in the Elite tier, with all five categories rated Good.
What caught my attention is how the new breakdown covers trading, assets, security, activity, and account tenure.
I like that it goes beyond showing a VIP badge and actually gives me a clearer picture of where I stand and what I can improve.
For me, that makes the whole system more useful.
Now I'm curious about yours.
What's your M-Score, and which category is your strongest? Drop yours below 👇
I’ve always found the term “VIP” slightly weird in crypto.
On the vast majority of exchanges, $100K in assets or $1M+ in 30D volume is a pretty common starting point.
The new VVIP structure by @MEXC completely change this traditional paradigm.
Everyone starts with an initial 350 M-Score and Standard status, without a specified asset balance or trading-volume requirement.
And after that??
M-Score is tied to capital or volume, sure, but security setup and daily activity also contribute.
So instead of: trade a lot → become VIP
it’s closer to: enter first → build your score → unlock higher tiers depending on your platform usage.
Standard already includes things like member vouchers and, under the Global/APAC Card promo, 4% cashback capped at 100 USDT/month.
If you make it to Elite, you can get up to 10% cashback with your MEXC Card, capped at 800 USDT a month.
🔗 Check your M-Score and current benefits on the VVIP page: mexc.com/user/m-score
⚠️ Digital assets and futures involve risk. Benefits and eligibility are subject to applicable conditions.
Rain retweeted
Crypto added $840B in market cap last quarter.
But the rally may have been running on leverage, not broad-based demand.
Q3 data shows a clear divergence:
• Total market cap: +39.6% to $2.96T
• $ETH: +71% vs. $BTC: +42.7%
• Average daily trading volume: -8.6%
• Top 10 CEX spot volume: -14.2%
• Perpetual futures open interest: +40.6%, above $100B
Prices rose as spot activity weakened and leverage expanded.
That doesn’t prove the rally was unsustainable, but it suggests positioning was growing faster than underlying demand.
October’s correction and nearly $1B in liquidations on October 15 make the imbalance worth watching.
Can crypto build another sustainable leg higher without spot demand catching up to leverage?
Crypto added $840B in market cap last quarter.
But the rally may have been running on leverage, not broad-based demand.
Q3 data shows a clear divergence:
• Total market cap: +39.6% to $2.96T
• $ETH: +71% vs. $BTC: +42.7%
• Average daily trading volume: -8.6%
• Top 10 CEX spot volume: -14.2%
• Perpetual futures open interest: +40.6%, above $100B
Prices rose as spot activity weakened and leverage expanded.
That doesn’t prove the rally was unsustainable, but it suggests positioning was growing faster than underlying demand.
October’s correction and nearly $1B in liquidations on October 15 make the imbalance worth watching.
Can crypto build another sustainable leg higher without spot demand catching up to leverage?
Rain retweeted
$MSTR is approaching a golden cross, but its historical record deserves a closer look.
The last two signals preceded rallies of 717% and 1,774%.
$BTC has gained nearly 5% since its own September crossover, while Strategy holds around $69.8B in Bitcoin.
Yet across 19 golden crosses since 1999, the stock was higher one year later only 10 times, with a median return of just 3.3%.
I’m still very cautious about treating a technical signal as confirmation of another major rally.
Is $MSTR gearing up for another breakout?
Or are traders putting too much weight on a pattern that has delivered mixed results?
