Humans are fungible compute. I write about economics and AI. Fix the money, fix the world. #Bitcoin
Joined September 2011
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There is going to be mass unemployment of white collar workers by 2028 and it will collapse the entire debt based Ponzi scheme western governments have relied on for decades to paper over the cracks of a fake economy.
The bubble will burst, they will try print again and hand out UBI, but this time they'll get either hyperinflation or social revolution, or both.
Bitcoin hits $1m USD by end of 2028 as the world grapples with the biggest sovereign debt crisis in the history of mankind.
We are very close to the End Game now.
There is no stopping this.
Rational Aussie retweeted
It's important to remember that most people are still living in the world where they'll be an accountant for 30 years in a computer job and then retire and grow old.
At some point over the next few years all of these people will undergo extreme ontological shock as all the assumptions, systems, institutions, they built their understanding of the world on collapse due to the advent of AGI.
If uploaded intelligence exists at any point in the future there's no good reason to think you haven't already been uploaded and chosen the timeline where you get to experience the most turbulent and exciting transition in human history: the Birth of Superintelligence.
The people who thrive over the next decade will be those who mentally abandon the idea of 'work as life' and start thinking more like a billionaire does:
You are already rich, now what do you want to do with your time? What side quests actually interest you? What is worth exploring regardless of any associated economic utility?
You will literally have an AI that can solve basically any problem you have if given enough compute, or help you explore anything you are interested in, including optimising your own life for what gives you personal fulfilment.
The people that do best will be like water. Everywhere and nowhere. Not tied down to any specific career or idea per se - doing it for the love of the game.
And some of you might say 'RA, that makes no sense, I've got bills to pay.'
Yeah, you need a plan to make it for about another decade, then that's really not gonna matter too much.
And if you start thinking like a billionaire you're just not gonna care that much. Go follow the side quest in your spare time then convince a venture capitalist to give you money for it. Pay yourself a salary with that and go exploring.
In short:
- Careers are dead
- Side quests are an infinite game
- Health-maxx, get jacked
- Be a good person. Reputation is also an infinite game.
All the other stuff... Career this, dollar here dollar there - who cares? We will have entire economic zones where superintelligent humanoids are building other superintelligent humanoids. The output of the global economy is going to be absurd. Orders of magnitude higher than almost anyone believes.
Stay flexible.
It's important to remember that most people are still living in the world where they'll be an accountant for 30 years in a computer job and then retire and grow old.
At some point over the next few years all of these people will undergo extreme ontological shock as all the assumptions, systems, institutions, they built their understanding of the world on collapse due to the advent of AGI.
Rational Aussie retweeted
AI is massively deflationary, not inflationary.
All digital goods and services will become abundant first, then eventually once you have mass humanoids all physical goods and services become abundant too.
All prices will trend towards the cost of compute, which will trend towards the cost of energy, downwards.
As this happens, humans will become unable to compete economically because why would you hire a human that is 1000x slower and 1000x more expensive and 1000x less effective at achieving a goal than an AI?
Eventually this will cause human unemployment to massively increase.
Those humans have lots of debt eg mortgages they won't be able to pay, which will cause a massive credit crunch and likely a banking crisis that will catalyse a sovereign debt crisis.
We are very close to the End Game of the fiat monetary system.
You should probably export all your tweets and print out physical copies of them.
When the AI Swarm hacks Twitter you'll have a hardcopy of all your shitposts printed and framed.
Everyone else will be tweetless, starting from scratch, and you'll be a king amongst men. An IRL shitposter.
I would strongly urge literally everyone that sees this to immediately check your Google 2FA settings and also buy a Yubikey.
Lock down any accounts you care about with a Yubikey.
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
What you are supposed to do is pivot into health-maxxing. Just get jacked. It's still scarce.
If you like working hard you're now better off pursuing difficult physical pursuits than intellectual ones.
I'm an optimistic person, and I believe in making the best out of the world I live in. I generally hate lamenting about the woes of the times. I believed in the value of hard work and work itself. I believe that if the work you want to do is not profitable, it is on you find ways to get that work done. But I find myself in a world of diminishing returns, where there are already no incentives for learning, and soon no reward for any work at all. What am I supposed to do? If all I know is to work, and to learn?
AI is massively deflationary, not inflationary.
All digital goods and services will become abundant first, then eventually once you have mass humanoids all physical goods and services become abundant too.
All prices will trend towards the cost of compute, which will trend towards the cost of energy, downwards.
As this happens, humans will become unable to compete economically because why would you hire a human that is 1000x slower and 1000x more expensive and 1000x less effective at achieving a goal than an AI?
Eventually this will cause human unemployment to massively increase.
Those humans have lots of debt eg mortgages they won't be able to pay, which will cause a massive credit crunch and likely a banking crisis that will catalyse a sovereign debt crisis.
We are very close to the End Game of the fiat monetary system.
This is the battle that will determine the next century and so few even understand it's coming.
Pro-AI versus anti-AI.
It will heat up enormously by the time humanoids exist at scale, and in the early 2030s when brain computer interface tech becomes viable.
To merge or not to merge, that is the question.
Rational Aussie retweeted
I think a lot of people have this massive misconception that in an AI agent-agent economy humans will remain in the loop.
Yet if you think about this for more than two minutes it does not make any sense.
Anyone who thinks in terms of systems and incentives already understands this.
It's like, if you're running a business, the human has to go home at 5pm and you don't see them the next morning until 9am.
Do you want that guy, who is sometimes grumpy, sometimes stupid, sometimes emotional, and mostly uni-dimensional and incredibly slow, making decisions, or do you want the 'orchestrator AI swarm' that is 500IQ and works 24/7 making decisions?
Which one gives you a better chance of beating your competitors, making more money, and delivering a higher value good/service?
I think you've gotta be batshit insane to answer 'the human'.
A continuation of the status quo leads to the human inevitably being removed from the loop at every layer through sheer survival of the fittest.
And some of you might reason 'well the government won't let that happen'...
Brother, look around you. The government is asleep at the wheel. They still haven't worked out how to turn on a laptop, let alone understand AI, let alone understand that this is a species-altering evolution not just a new technology 'tool'.
They don't get it. And even if they did they are almost powerless to stop it because if they implement 'human in the loop' regulations, then capitalism plus game theory ensures the entrepreneurial humans just pack up and set up their company in the one country that doesn't have those laws.
Humans probably need to accept we will become economically useless over the next few years, and a discussion needs to be had at the highest levels as to what that means and what world we are heading towards.
I feel sorry for the first home buyers that bought into this Ponzi at the absolute top, but there is a long, long way to fall from here.
AI-driven job losses have barely even begun.
Brisbane propadee losing money now at $5k per week per million
It’s falling at 26% a year annualized
Told you south east Qld would be the epicenter of this ridiculous Ponzi bubble crash
Rarely do I miss 🎯
My favourite part is where instead of the car going 5km/h hitting the kid, the robot lunges towards him and finishes the job itself with a 30km/h force to the chest to move him out of the way. Much success
The most interesting part of this whole thing is the incentives at play.
Many people think biology won't be solved because it's too complex to properly simulate insilico, therefore too hard to verify if the drugs will actually work without human trials that typically span several years.
Yet what will actually happen is much simpler: if you are 80, on death's door, and a superintelligence exists that designs a potential drug that might extend your life X years, are you going to a) wait for the regulatory body to run the official clinical trial and risk dying by the time the drug is officially on the market, OR b) fly to a country with zero regulations on this stuff, send your drug design to a wet lab, get it manufactured and YOLO ingest it.
The answer is B.
And it doesn't even have to be the answer for the majority of old people in this example. It actually only needs to work for enough of them that try it to create a 'stampede effect' whereby they all try it and it works for most of them.
Incentives rule the world.
What is AI really capable of in bio?
To separate hype from reality, we spent 3 months working firsthand with @AnthropicAI's internal research model to see if it could create an experimental scorpion antivenom.
Introducing Citrini Therapeutics.
citriniresearch.com/p/citrin…
The best reason for being an AI accelerationist is that if we don't accelerate at lightspeed the economy certainly collapses via the biggest inflationary depression the world has ever seen - fiat economies always do in the long run.
If we accelerate as fast as possible though, we at least have a chance of long-run output being so unfathomably large that all resource questions become distribution problems rather than production problems.
Capitalism incentivised the later and in doing so solved the former (those who produce what the market wants are handsomely rewarded for it ie distributed adequate currency to motivate them for that production).
If we attempt to slow down AI progress we are going to end up in the worst possible world, which is the one where AI keeps progressively taking people's jobs, there's nothing to sufficiently retrain into because AI can do those jobs too, but output isn't high enough for distribution to those impacted because it's intentionally constrained eg through human in the loop regulations forcing people to be hired.
It is far better for everyone to be in the same boat of 'oh shit the AI can literally do everything, now what', than it slowly picking off each profession one by one and everyone fighting for the scraps that remain.
Correct. And once you understand this you also can see very clearly that basically all commerce ends up mediated by an agent to agent protocol that acts kind of like a clearing house, and any type of matching between people also ends up in that same protocol with an extremely accurate relationship graph.
What people misunderstand about AI unemployment is that the customers will increasingly become AIs. Humans won’t be the ones calling sales reps. People will ask their AI agent to get car insurance, and that agent will talk to another AI agent and get the best price.
The messiness goes away once this is in play. It’s only messy when you have a human in the loop. When input and output are handled by AI, people become the bottleneck.
Apparently this is an alarmist view?
Hate to break it to you all, but this is what is going to happen. If your inclination is that it's alarmist, then yeah you are gonna be pretty alarmed over what exponential AI progress and recursive self improvement looks like over the next few years, because your views are not going to be relevant to a superintelligence capable of autonomous goal optimisation.
I don't know what you do but I'd say the real reason they hire you is because of you're on the pulse with AI it helps them make more money or cut more costs ultimately, in the long run (ie stay ahead of the competition). A more powerful AI model in the future will simply help them achieve that goal without the intermediate step of needing to even understand what the AI is doing. So no need to 'be on the pulse.'
Absolutely true, and it's also why countries like India and the Philippines may be better off than many Western nations in terms of potential social unrest resulting from this.
They have a fundamentally different social contract, lower expectations (used to running makeshift street businesses to get by), and can quickly pivot to being 'human sensors' for AIs and robots that need to slurp up more data to make sense of the world (and they'll do it much cheaper than human labour elsewhere in the world).
Many Western employees will get fired, think they'll be able to get another computer job (they won't), will spend a year looking, and then won't be particularly economically employable for the data collection freelance gigs because their wage will be too high.
I don’t think many people realize with full time standard corp jobs, that this might be the last full time job they ever have again. Next 3-5 years is really telling.
Roles will be shrinking, unlikely enough new businesses and roles opening to sustain equal distribution of today’s landscape. Gig and project based / contracting work may be the new norm, expect to work 3-6 months a year, and jobs are more like contracts and or projects. From selling your data and or collecting it, to training agents, various new demands will pop up.
It’s a real possibility. Many inside big tech think this, hence the political cut throat life raft mentality plaguing many companies right now.
Why would you want a human who doesn't understand how the complex system the AI is governing actually works, being accountable for that system?
We have CEOs and Board of Directors with fiduciary obligations to their shareholders on the underlying premise that they are responsible for what's happening in the company because they have ownership and control.
If those people lack control because the AI does everything, keeping them accountable is both illogical and somewhat immoral.
Their shareholders would push them to use AI else their stonks get nuked, and yet they lack the control to ensure it gets done safely?
So they are stuck in a bind where they get punished for implementing it when it inevitably does something dangerous, and punished for not implementing it in terms of the value of their company.
A human IQ governing a superintelligence is not practical - it's actually likely far more dangerous for humans to remain in control.
