
Yankees baseball thoughts minus the hysteria and stupidity. Jack Curry follows me, so you probably should too. Member of @MLB Fan Council.
Minnetonka, MN
Joined August 2020
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I never use my platform this way but I’m going to make an exception today.
This incredibly brave boy, Breckon, is in my daughter’s class at school. He is currently battling Leukemia for the second time and he’s had to some spend some extra time in the hospital getting treatment recently.
He’s just a normal kid who loves playing baseball and hockey with his friends. As a parent, the entire situation breaks my heart. We’re all really hoping this next round of treatment helps Breckon become cancer free again, but in the interim his family needs some help.
As a community, we’ve all stepped in too help however we can. But if anyone out there has anything to give while Breckon’s parents are out of work to care for him, it’d be greatly appreciated. gofundme.com/f/support-breck…
Anyone who thinks Boone humiliating players in the media would’ve changed the Yankees’ results is confusing performative outrage with actual accountability.
It might satisfy fans for a night. It doesn’t fix real baseball issues.
Replying to @rationalyankee
Except nothing has changed. So how are we to believe anyone is being held accountable in house
This is 100 percent the correct way to manage a baseball team. Keep your dirty laundry in house and ignore the noise on the outside.
It’s essential to do in a market like New York.
I say all the time that I’m indifferent to how much longer Boone manages the team because I don’t think the manager has the impact people typically think he does.
But that said, to place the majority of the blame for the Yankees’ on-field failures on a guy who does not play on the field is pretty silly to me.
When performance is the issue, it’s the job of the people who are supposed to perform to perform better.
I think blaming Boone for getting swept in the ALDS is lazy. The guys on the field sucked. It was really that simple for me.
People are giving the Brewers credit for fixing the ticket situation, but this solution actually sucks.
The people who bought those tickets bought them for this exact moment. Who knows if the Brewers get here again anytime soon? Giving them a shitty seat and then forcing them to wait who knows how long to use their Timeless Ticket the way it was originally intended isn’t doing the right thing.
Corporate greed has permeated everywhere.
I’ve always viewed prediction markets as essentially another form of sports betting, but the idea of using them to make financial risk management accessible to small businesses is fascinating. Hadn’t really considered that application until I saw this.
Large corporations have been using derivatives for decades to hedge everything from commodity prices and interest rates to currency fluctuations and weather. Small businesses have plenty of risks they’d love to hedge too, but the traditional derivatives market isn’t particularly accommodating.
An investment bank isn’t going to bother structuring a custom derivative for a restaurant worried about $100K in revenue tied to a playoff run. There’s simply not enough money involved to justify the legal expenses, structuring costs and counterparty risk. And it’s not as though there’s an established futures market for restaurant revenue contingent on the Dodgers making the World Series.
But if that restaurant can buy a reasonably priced contract that pays out when the Dodgers get eliminated, it can offset some of the revenue it would otherwise lose. That’s essentially the same principle behind an airline hedging fuel prices, just applied on a much smaller scale to a risk traditional financial markets have never really served.
There’s a lot of potential economic value here, particularly for businesses whose revenues depend heavily on outcomes they have absolutely no control over. Assuming these markets develop enough liquidity to make the hedges practical, this could become a genuinely useful financial tool for small businesses.
Hit a hole-in-one. Free mattresses if the team wins. You went to an insurance company that specialized in calculating the odds. That was probably until 2006.
Then it moved to Las Vegas, where ticket brokers holding inventory for one team would bet against that team to hedge.
Then, by 2018, it moved to online sportsbooks.
Now it's happening on prediction markets.
An LA-based restaurant group put $60,000 on Kalshi before the NLCS that the Dodgers would lose to the Brewers.
Why? They calculated that a Dodgers World Series run would bring in an extra $120,000. No run, $0.
So they hedged. Guaranteed $60,000 either way.
The Dodgers lost. The $60,000 grossed $120,000.
Why an exchange and not a sportsbook?
At a sportsbook, your price is locked.
The only way out is a cash-out, and that number is set by the book's algorithm.
On an exchange, there's thousands of competing buyers on the other side. The price moves. It's a reflection of the market, and you can take it or leave it at any point.
The speculators who believed the Dodgers would win provided the liquidity the sportsbook never did.
Marketplaces like Kalshi are giving businesses the exchange that prize indemnity and sportsbooks never could.
Because the other side is real.
Rational Yankees Fan retweeted
This is what the Giants tried this year (and what the Rockies try every year)
Replying to @shegone03
We need 1 billionaire owner to throw caution to the wind & allow his GM to build an "old school" team, disavowing most analytics that pervade the game today.
Traditional lead off guy, hits & balls in play, blended with pop.
No mandatory pitch counts, a staff of 11.
They'd win.
If I were a fan of the Brewers or Rays, I would not give a single F what the ratings for the World Series wind up being. They should not care.
But outside of that, this is a surface-level take.
MLB is trying to convince us that a salary cap is needed. It’s also been counting the seconds until it can renegotiate its media rights. The better ratings it gets for its premier events, the more money they can get when that renegotiation happens. The league thinks it’s going to get a massive revenue increase when they renegotiate those media deals.
But if MLB creates a system where small markets have a better chance of making the World Series than they currently do, it could create an environment where the World Series ratings continually underperform.
This World Series is basically a test run of what that environment might look like. If the ratings come in low, it could spook some owners away from a cap system that prevents big brands from playing on the game’s biggest stages with regularity.
MLB has been counting on that media rights deal to transform the financial landscape of owning a baseball team and operating the league. Anything that puts that at risk needs to be navigated very carefully.
It’s so bizarre to me how people are trying to make this the “anti-analytics” World Series between the…Rays and Brewers.
They are literally two of the three most analytically inclined teams in the sport with some of the largest baseball analytics staffs.
If anything, it just proves that utilizing advanced data works, which should not surprise anyone.
The real finding is that baseball operations departments are finding more ways to win than they used to. Instead of building teams that live and die by the three-true-outcome approach, TB and MIL found players who can systematically create more value from average to below average contact than the historical average player and built their teams around them.
But the idea that they threw the numbers out the window and decided to play old school baseball is nonsensical.
BASEBALL MIGHT BE GETTING THE WORLD SERIES IT NEEDS MOST!
At a time when analytics have practically taken over the game and a potential lockout is looming, the Rays and Brewers might be reminding baseball of something we’ve forgotten.
HOW TO ACTUALLY PLAY WINNING BASEBALL!
Pitching. Defense. Speed. Contact. Smart baserunning. Timely power. EXECUTION!
Forget chasing superstars just because they’re superstars. GO FIND SUPERSTARS WHO KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE GAME!
Two organizations proving that sometimes the best way forward is BACK TO BASICS!
Maybe this World Series is bigger than a championship. Maybe it’s a reminder of what baseball has been missing.
And for once, I genuinely have NO IDEA who I’m picking!
Rays fans, Brewers fans… SELL ME ON YOUR SQUAD!
Convince me why YOUR team wins it all.
BEST ARGUMENT GETS MY PICK!
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The Rays and Brewers are among baseball's most analytics-driven organizations, using data and tech to identify edges like contact, speed, and small-ball tactics rather than representing a "back to basics" rejection of analytics.
nytimes.com/athletic/76843…
wsj.com/sports/basebal…
mlb.com/news/explainin…
outkick.com/sports/milwauk…
If the Yankees aren’t confident enough in Aaron Boone to extend him for the 2028 season, they shouldn’t have kept him at all.
Forcing him to manage as a lame duck manager next season, along with all the potential storylines that will swirl around that as the season progresses, is an extreme failure of process.
Every time the team loses a series, he’ll have to answer questions about it. The players will be hyper-aware of the situation.
There is no reason the Yankees should intentionally create that distraction around the team. I couldn’t disagree with this more if that’s what the Yankees are actually doing.
Aaron Boone will return as Yankees manager next season. His current contract ends after this upcoming season. @pcaldera was on it first.
More w/@BrendanKutyNJ:
nytimes.com/athletic/7675201…
The ironic thing about this World Series is that it’s going to cost $3kish to get into the building, while simultaneously being one of the least watched World Series of all time.
I just feel so unimaginably horrible for the true #Brewers fans that dreamed of going to the World Series when we made it this far.
I will reiterate, whether you can be there or not, YOU STILL MATTER.
The level of arrogance and complete detachment from reality here is staggering, although hardly surprising given the source.
Millions of Americans are struggling to afford basic necessities, and lifelong baseball fans are being priced out of the biggest event in their sport. Apparently, that’s hilarious to someone who’s never had to give a second thought to what anything costs.
Imagine being born into millions because your father played baseball on steroids, spending your adult life monetizing his name and accomplishments and then having the audacity to mock working-class fans for not being able to casually drop thousands of dollars on a baseball game.
You’ve inherited the wealth, the platform and the last name. None of the perspective though!
The most remarkable part is how someone who’s accomplished so little independently can have such an extraordinary sense of superiority over the people whose money helped make his family’s fortune possible.
These prices are the most normal thing I’ve seen, ever. What’d you think a family of 4 was going to a World Series game for $500 a piece?
Everyone would go lol
I don’t even know what to expect from the Brewers in the World Series because they somehow turned into a three-true-outcome monster in the NLCS, which has been the antithesis of their identity all season.
And it worked incredibly well, but can they do it again? And do they even want to do it again? It’ll be really interesting to watch.
I have spent an embarrassing amount of my day playing this game .
Think you can coach a game better than an NFL Head Coach?
Prove it with my new app.
Nfl2mindrill.com
Rubenstein made billions in private equity and by his own admission watched his friends make even more owning baseball teams. That should tell you something about how profitable this business really is.
I’d love to know why so many fans are convinced owners need a cap when franchise values have exploded and we still have no idea how much money these teams actually make.
If the owners are struggling so badly under the current system, open the books and prove it.
They won’t. And this is why!
Orioles' David Rubenstein admits what MLB owners don't want fans to know: They're making a ton of money
cbssports.com/mlb/news/oriol…
I’m really happy for the Brewers. I’ll also be happy for whoever comes out of the AL. All deserving teams who are fun to watch once I remove my pinstriped glasses.
But I’m ever happier that we now officially have the small-market World Series right before the league locks out its players over competive balance.
I genuinely think the ratings could drop by 40-50 percent from last year’s World Series. Maybe even lower than Texas vs AZ in 2023. That’s a nightmare for MLB as it tries to explain why it needs more small-market teams on the biggest stages. And even more of a nightmare as it gets closer to having to renegotiate its media rights deals.
If re-signing Cody Bellinger was the Yankees’ definition of going all in, then I don’t think the organization understands what’s going all in actually means.
Rational Yankees Fan retweeted
Replying to @rationalyankee
Absolutely. Neither side is going to give us cheaper tickets, hats, jerseys. My costs will never go down. I just get to choose who gets my money: the players whom I enjoy watching, or the owners whom I never see? Easy choice. I'd rather Ben Rice gets paid than Hal Steinbrenner.
Survey fans on cheaper tickets, $5 beers, free parking, no blackouts, every game on one affordable streaming service, no jersey ads and fewer commercials.
Funny how fan opinion suddenly matters when it aligns with the owners’ financial interests.
These guys aren’t prepared to sacrifice billions in revenue and risk a work stoppage out of concern for competitive balance. They do not give a shit about competitive balance.
Owners want a cap because they believe it benefits them financially. Full stop. The fan surveys are just a convenient way to sell it.
Trying to convince fans that billionaire owners suddenly care about them is insulting.
“Owners do not intend to pivot from their contentions. Their insistence on a cap and floor -- backed, the league says, by surveys that show fans want one”, per @JeffPassan


























