Bear

$NVDA. So far so good on this. Still a long road ahead. But Too good of a risk reward not to take a shot.

That was fun. Most important woman in the world the Texas governor elect said she can work with @elonmusk Good for 250 NQ. Make sure to have alerts for anything she says.

Just want to give our thanks for the 1000 Korea going to nuke tonight posts. Never change fintwit. $KORU and NQ long flying.

lol @FT knew exactly what they were doing with this headline. However there has been no change or shortfall in OpenAI revenue like the headline implies. It’s just how the revenue is was beinf counted by investors so so they could compare apples to apples with how anthropic counts it

Lol @FT we knew it was a deceptively misleading story when you published it and YOU knew it too and you did it anyway. Why? Becuase you knew it would move the market.

We also got some SPX calls over 3x and 5x plus on $IWM calls and $RKT calls should be Multibaggers. This is a Goldilocks jobs print for the market. Still adding jobs and weak wages. Only @TFLabofficial

AI Drug Discovery Is Becoming a Bottleneck Trade I get excited when an industry starts going through a real regime change. AI drug discovery (“AIDD”) increasingly looks like one of those moments. Two things are happening: 1/ Upstream: the frontier AI labs are piling in. 2/ Downstream: The supply chain is clearly moving. Supply-chain checks suggest the upstream picks-and-shovels of discovery and early preclinical R&D are starting to feel the increase in experimental volume. DNA → protein → assays → sequencing → automation → preclinical testing Names across that stack include $TWST , @GenScript , $ILMN , $TXG , lab-automation vendors and CROs. $TWST expects triple-digit percentage growth in AI-enabled drug-discovery orders in FY26, and another year of triple-digit order growth in FY27. @GenScript's AIDD business doubled YoY in 1H26. Its current platform advertises industrial-scale validation of 4,000+ designs/day, with integrated sequence-to-data workflows. Our channel checks suggest the ramp is moving even faster: roughly 8,000 designs/day currently, with a path toward ~16,000/day by YE26. --- Why does AI drive more wet-lab demand? 1/ AI makes hypothesis generation almost free → way more shots on goal. The bottleneck is moving from expert-driven design to biological validation. 2/ AI models need continuous experimental feedback — and both good and bad data are useful. Traditionally, only the highest-conviction A+ candidates might get pushed into expensive validation. With AI, even the B/C candidates can be valuable because failed experiments generate training data. @GenScript has said its sequence-to-binding workflow can return data in 4–7 days, and that faster cycle times matter because AI models depend on continuous experimental feedback. @Anthropic is a clean example. @claudeai designed 1,320 protein binders. @adaptyvbio converted those digital sequences into DNA, expressed the proteins and tested binding. Only 354 actually bound. And the 966 failures are not wasted. They are useful negative labels: what does not express, what does not bind, what has poor affinity. Those results help train the next model iteration. 3/ Wet labs are no longer just making drugs. They are making training data. $TWST / @GenScript increasingly look like biological data foundries. $TWST explicitly talks about generating model-ready data from AI-designed sequences. In some workflows, the customer may care less about receiving the physical protein than about getting structured experimental results back into the model. Traditional drug discovery asks: “Does candidate X work?” AI drug discovery also asks: “What can this experiment teach the model?” --- TAM of AIDD If AI is simply a better R&D tool, the relevant spending pool is the $300–400B of annual global pharma R&D. If AI meaningfully increases the number of viable drug programs, the opportunity is larger because it expands downstream demand for DNA synthesis, protein production, assays, and preclinical work. Near term, we can also size demand from AI-company spending. If Anthropic reaches $80B of ARR in 2026 and spends just 1% on AIDD, that alone would imply ~$800M of annual investment. --- Trade setup This is a trade that could have long legs. It’s hard to really stop working until PhaseI/II results (2028+) It smells a lot like the bottleneck trade we just saw in semis: GPUs → HBM → networking → power/cooling. In biology, It basically follows the drug discovery process downstream: AI models → designs → DNA/protein → assays → preclinical capacity. After the upstream picks-and-shovels, animal testing could become the next bottleneck. Monkey prices are already near prior highs and CRO capacity is tight. AIDD pushing more candidates into preclinical development would only add demand. ?? But clinical trials are still the bottleneck? This is the biggest pushback I keep coming back to. No matter how fast discovery becomes, drugs still need to go through preclinical → Phase I → Phase II → Phase III → approval. You still need patients, time and capital. But that doesn’t mean the bottleneck trade won’t work. More viable candidates — especially with higher success rates — still means more demand throughout the development process. And who knows: clinical trials themselves may eventually be optimized by AI. ?? What breaks the trade? Near term, the picks-and-shovels trade breaks if experimental budgets stop growing, AI-generated designs don’t translate into useful wet-lab hits, or capacity catches up too quickly. Longer term, the thesis breaks if AI drugs look great in discovery / Phase I but fail at normal rates in Phase II/III. That is why Phase II matters so much. ?? Milestones Late 2026–2027: first Isomorphic-designed drugs enter human trials; more AI-native programs move into IND-enabling work / tox. 2028–2030: clinical trial results start telling us whether AI-designed drugs actually perform better than conventional drugs. Calling all the "bottleneck bros". :) @jukan05 @zephyr_z9 @aleabitoreddit @ParadisLabs +++ More comprehensive analysis: robonomics.substack.com/p/ai…