Erwin

you learn a little. you make one good trade. you call a move before it happens. you catch a 2x. maybe even a 10x. and suddenly… you think you get it. you’re not like the others. you’ve figured it out. you start explaining charts to your friends. you drop phrases like “distribution phase” and “mfi divergence” in casual conversations. you feel ahead of the game. but then, the market humbles you. you take a few losses. your conviction fades. you start questioning every entry. you realize how little you actually know. that moment (when your confidence drops faster than your pnl) that’s when you truly begin learning. this is the dunning–kruger effect. the less you know, the more confident you feel. because you don’t yet know what you don’t know. most people never make it past the first hill. they peak early, think they’ve mastered it, then disappear when it gets hard. but the ones who last? they stay through the dip. they rebuild, slower and quieter. and over time, their confidence grows again, not because they feel invincible, but because they finally understand their limits.