Elon's endgame is to control that largest, most monopolistic corporation of all.

“We have a shot” is Elon code for I am making sh*t up to pump my stocks to get more cheap capital from the tittis of the global financial markets

An homage to the Tesla Roadster: the greatest promise ever made Ladies and gentlemen, we are witnessing history. Nine years after unveiling the Roadster that was supposed to enter production in 2020, Elon has unveiled another Roadster. And what a machine it is! In 2017, he promised us 620 miles of range. The haters called it "vaporware", a phantom product that vanishes instead of becoming a real item you can buy. In 2028, we get roughly 300 miles. Some may call this a reduction. Visionaries understand that the missing 320 miles have simply been converted into vertical distance. Because the new Roadster can FLY! The haters call it "jump". But to truly appreciate this extraordinary achievement, we must revisit some of the other masterpieces from Elon's career. The Cybertruck: Precision Beyond Imagination Remember the $39,900 Cybertruck? Of course you don't. That particular price existed in a parallel universe that ordinary customers were never granted access to. Remember the target of 250,000 Cybertrucks per year? Apparently, demand was so overwhelmed by the product's magnificence that it decided to stay home. And who could forget the legendary "sub-10-micron" manufacturing precision? A level of engineering accuracy so extraordinary that some Cybertruck panel gaps apparently required an entirely different unit of measurement. But these were merely warm-up exercises. Optimus: The Army That Never Reported for Duty Then came Optimus. Thousands of humanoid robots were supposed to be produced "by the end of 2025". Ten months into 2026, the world is still waiting for the army to report for duty. But fear not. More than six months ago, Elon assured us that the next Optimus was receiving its "final touches." Those must be extraordinarily sophisticated touches. We are approaching a point where Michelangelo would have finished the Sistine Chapel faster. But that is precisely the genius of Optimus. Why employ thousands of robots in factories when you can employ millions of investors' imaginations? The productivity is extraordinary. Dojo: The Nvidia Killer That Killed Itself And then there was Dojo. Ah, Dojo. Tesla's magnificent AI supercomputer, the technological marvel that was supposed to revolutionize artificial intelligence and gave Tesfluencers fodder for content for years. In July 2024, Elon confidently told investors he "saw a path" for Dojo to compete with Nvidia. @JensenHuang NVIDIA! The company dominating AI computing. But Elon wasn't intimidated. Why merely buy Nvidia's chips when you can build your own and eventually challenge the world's leading AI chipmaker? Tesla committed hundreds of millions of dollars to the effort. In Buffalo alone, it had reportedly spent $314 million by 2024 toward a $500 million supercomputer investment. Investors were invited to imagine yet another enormous market Tesla would conquer. Cars? Check. Robots? Check. Robotaxis? Check. Nvidia's business? Coming soon! And then, just over a year after that bold competitive claim, in August 2025, Elon shut Dojo down. Just like that. The Nvidia challenger had apparently challenged itself out of existence. Elon explained that Dojo 2 had become an "evolutionary dead end." Teslfluencers moved on quickly. Crickets thereafter. An extraordinary discovery. Hundreds of millions of dollars, years of engineering, enormous expectations, and it turns out evolution had taken a wrong turn. And Tesla continued relying heavily on Nvidia's hardware. Tesla's great Nvidia killer ended up being killed while Nvidia continued selling Tesla the very chips Dojo was supposed to challenge. Magnificent. But don't worry. There is always another technological revolution just around the corner. Battery Day: The 56% Revolution That Lost Its Charge And who could forget Battery Day 2020? Ah, the legendary 4680 battery cell. The battery that was going to change EVERYTHING, according to Tesfluencers. Five times the energy per cell! Six times the power! Up to 54% more vehicle range! And, most importantly, a promised 56% reduction in battery cost per KWh, through a combination of cell design, manufacturing, materials and vehicle improvements. Not 20%. Not 30%. 56%! Elon had cracked the code. A revolutionary battery strategy that would allow Tesla to crush the competition on cost, unlock extraordinary margins and finally bring the long-promised "lower cost" (2024) Teslas to market. And all this was supposed to become reality within roughly three years. Magnificent. Then came 2024. Elon was still explaining to investors how Tesla's 4680 cells would become cost-competitive with the cheapest suppliers by the end of the year. Wait a minute. Wasn't this the revolutionary battery that was supposed to make Tesla the undisputed cost leader years earlier? Not merely be cost-competitive? Again, the Tesfluencers long ignored that detail they sold to the fans for years and, as always, moved on. Or, as the haters call it, "move the goalpost". Apparently, the revolution had encountered a minor manufacturing inconvenience. Fast-forward to 2026. The 4680 cell exists. Tesla actually manufactures it. Credit where credit is due! Tesla lacks credit. Barely anyone, especially on X, ever mentions Tesla's achievements. Unfortunately, the grand Battery Day cost and range revolution remains far from what was originally advertised. Tesla continues buying enormous quantities of battery cells from external suppliers, while its own cells have faced questions over their competitiveness with leading alternatives. And that $25,000 Tesla? Apparently, it went into witness protection alongside the $40,000 Cybertruck. But here's the true genius. In 2020, Elon promised a battery revolution that would make Tesla dramatically more competitive. Six years later, investors are still debating whether Tesla's own cells can match the economics and performance of cells available from established suppliers. From revolutionizing the entire battery industry to trying to catch up with the existing battery industry. What an extraordinary journey! The Million Robotaxis That Forgot to Arrive And then, of course, there was "The Fleet Awakens." Ah, the robotaxis. In 2019, Elon explained to investors: "This is why it’s possible for Tesla to have a million robotaxis by end of 2020 if we upgrade existing HW2 fleet of ~500k & make at least ~500k FSD cars." One million robotaxis. By the end of 2020. Not 2030. Not 2040. 2020. And not just a vague ambition, either. Elon had already done the math! 500,000 existing vehicles upgraded, another 500,000 manufactured, and voila: one million robotaxis. Such extraordinary ("micron") precision. Such beautiful arithmetic. There was just one tiny problem. The cars couldn't actually drive themselves. But why let such a minor engineering inconvenience get in the way of a million-unit deployment forecast? Fast-forward six years. The million-strong autonomous fleet never materialized. The vast majority of those supposed robotaxis are still being driven by their owners or, as they will not get tired of reminding you, supervised or has been "intervention free" for years. And rather than generating passive income while they sleep, those owners continue performing the rather tedious task of driving their own cars. But now, Tesla is finally there: the car does indeed (most of the time) drive itself. Unfortunately, meanwhile, others show similar capability and may sell the same thing in only 18 months time. But that is precisely the beauty of Elon's vision. He didn't just promise cars that would drive themselves. He promised cars that would make money for their owners. He managed to sell investors on the economics of a business before solving the technology required for the business to exist. He predicted the "greatest asset appreciation in history". Magnificent. The fleet didn't awaken. It pressed the snooze button. Repeatedly. AI3 hardware cars fell into a permanent coma. AI4? We'll see. The 20 Million Cars and the Five-Company Empire But who needs robotaxis when Tesla is about to dominate the entire global automotive industry? Remember the ambition of producing 20 million vehicles per year by 2030? That target was so ambitious that Tesla eventually liberated itself from the burden of publishing it. A true masterstroke of operational efficiency. Why manufacture 20 million vehicles when you can simply manufacture the expectation of 20 million vehicles? But let's move on from 20 million vehicles per year. It's only haters who have the audacity to still bring up these old and broken promises. But even that was not ambitious enough. Elon told investors that he could "see a path" where "Tesla would be worth more than the next five most valuable companies in the world COMBINED". Apple. Microsoft. Nvidia. Amazon. Alphabet. Mere rounding errors in the future Tesla empire. An empire where cars drive themselves, robots manufacture everything, batteries cost almost nothing, and the Roadster flies. An empire that has become so valuable in the future that the present can no longer afford to question it. As anyone who dares to express even the slightest hint of skepticism will quickly discover in the comments on this platform. After all, this place is populated by an extraordinary number of people who have already seen the future. And should you dare raise any of the inconvenient facts discussed above, they will generously explain not why your arguments are wrong, but why your intelligence is insufficient to comprehend Elon's genius. Magnificent. The future is already known. The only thing still up for debate is your IQ. And this brings us to perhaps Elon's greatest contribution to financial markets. Industry-Leading Margins: The Great Vanishing Act Ah, the margins. In 2022, while Tesla was enjoying extraordinary profitability, Elon was confidently presenting a future of continued industry-leading margins. What a beautiful outlook! Tesla wasn't merely going to dominate the automotive industry in volume. It was going to dominate in profitability as well. And why wouldn't it? Revolutionary manufacturing. Gigantic economies of scale. Unmatched technology. The world's cheapest batteries, naturally. The competition never stood a chance. Then something remarkable happened. Elon sold billions upon billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock. And what happened to those magnificent margins? They collapsed. Tesla's automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, went from approximately 26.7% in 2022 to 15.4% in 2024 and 2025. A collapse of more than 1,100 basis points! Its company-wide operating margin deteriorated into the low single digits. The supposedly unbeatable manufacturing advantage had somehow transformed into profitability much closer to that of ordinary automakers. Tesla had gone from showing the rest of the automotive industry how to make money to discovering just how difficult making money in the automotive industry actually is. Magnificent. And here's the truly remarkable part. While shareholders were being encouraged to look forward to a future of industry-leading margins and unprecedented growth, Elon was converting enormous amounts of Tesla stock into cash. Of course, this could all be a coincidence. Perhaps Elon simply had an exceptionally unfortunate sense of timing when making his optimistic profitability projections. And an exceptionally fortunate sense of timing when selling his shares. After all, nobody can predict the future. Except, apparently, Elon. He can predict 20 million annual vehicle sales, one million robotaxis by 2020, revolutionary battery economics, thousands of humanoid robots and a Tesla valuation exceeding the world's five most valuable companies combined. Just not the approaching collapse in his own company's automotive margins. The man who could see the future of the entire global economy apparently couldn't see the future of his own income statement. Which brings us to something even more extraordinary. The Last Man to Sell Years ago, Elon assured Tesla shareholders that he would be the last to sell Tesla stock. What a beautiful commitment. Naturally, he subsequently became one of the largest sellers of Tesla stock in history, unloading tens of billions of dollars worth of shares. But don't misunderstand this as a broken promise. Elon was saving free speech! When he bought Twitter, he wasn't merely acquiring a social media platform. He was saving civilization itself. And civilization, apparently, required an extraordinary amount of Tesla stock to be sold. In fact, the selling continued beyond his initial Twitter financing announcements, including billions more after the acquisition closed. One might reasonably wonder why a man whose principal mission was saving free speech needed to sell quite so much Tesla stock. But such questions betray a fundamental misunderstanding of genius. While ordinary investors were holding Tesla shares in anticipation of a magnificent future, Elon was converting substantial portions of his holdings into liquidity, giving himself extraordinary financial flexibility to fund other ventures and investments. What a brilliant diversification strategy! Meanwhile, Tesla cult members routinely scold fellow shareholders for not being "all-in" on Tesla stock, treating diversification as a sign of insufficient conviction. The irony? Not even Elon himself is all-in on Tesla. Apparently, diversification is perfectly sensible when you're Elon Musk. When you're an ordinary shareholder, it's a failure to understand his genius. Magnificent. And perhaps the most beautiful part of this extraordinary journey is what happened to the shareholders who actually believed him. Imagine being a loyal Tesla investor five years ago. You listened to Elon. You believed in 20 million annual vehicle sales, industry-leading margins, millions of robotaxis, revolutionary batteries, humanoid robots and a company destined to become more valuable than the world's five largest companies combined. So you held your shares. Year after year after year after year... Through every missed deadline, every downward revision, every margin collapse and every new announcement promising that the REAL revolution was just around the corner. And, of course, the occasional public spectacle of Elon accusing the President of appearing in the Epstein files, only to be fortunate enough to receive his forgiveness later. Apparently, even burning bridges is part of the master plan. Fortunately, some bridges can be rebuilt faster than Tesla can deliver its promises. But we digress... Meanwhile, Elon was doing something rather different. He was selling. Billions upon billions of dollars worth of Tesla stock, much of it at valuations supported by the very expectations he had spent years cultivating. And while loyal shareholders were patiently waiting for the future to arrive, Elon was already enjoying the present. What an extraordinary arrangement! The shareholders got the promises. Elon got the proceeds. They got exposure to the execution risk. He got liquidity, diversification and the freedom to invest elsewhere. And here's the true genius. Elon didn't need all his predictions to come true to realize enormous wealth from Tesla. He merely needed enough investors to believe they would. And, of course, he retained an enormous Tesla stake, allowing him to benefit if those promises eventually materialized. He could cash out tens of billions, retain massive upside, and leave other shareholders waiting for delivery. But wait. The story gets even better. The Billion-Dollar Rediscovery of Tesla In September 2025, Elon suddenly rediscovered the extraordinary investment merits of Tesla stock. He purchased approximately $1 billion worth of shares. The market celebrated! The media hailed his renewed confidence! Especially the Twitter/X world. What timing. What conviction. What extraordinary faith in Tesla's future! And purely by coincidence, the purchase came just weeks before a crucial shareholder vote on a compensation package potentially worth up to $1 trillion. Even more remarkably, the purchase settled in time for the shareholder voting record date. What an astonishing alignment of the stars! One might ask: If Tesla was such an extraordinary investment, why not repurchase billions of dollars worth of shares after selling them in 2022? After Twitter was acquired and the money clearly wasn't needed anymore? Why wait until a crucial shareholder vote? But this is a question only haters, of course, would ask. And this is precisely where lesser minds fail to grasp the genius, as the army of self-appointed intellectual giants on X will be more than happy to remind you, preferably while questioning your intelligence rather than addressing your arguments. Elon doesn't merely time the market. He times his conviction. Sell tens of billions when the opportunity presents itself. Buy back $1 billion when shareholders are about to vote on your compensation. And call both decisions expressions of extraordinary commitment to Tesla. Beautiful. And remember, he once promised he would be the last to sell. Apparently, that meant the last person shareholders should have expected to sell. The Philosophy of Confident Wrongness Which brings us to one of Elon's most profound philosophical observations. He once explained that "being confidently wrong is far worse than being merely wrong". And I couldn't agree more. What an extraordinary insight. Particularly coming from a man who has spent the better part of a decade confidently announcing production dates, prices, technological breakthroughs, sales targets and financial outcomes that reality has repeatedly declined to accommodate. But this is where his genius truly shines. Elon isn't merely confidently wrong. He has industrialized confident wrongness. He has scaled it, automated it, and turned it into an entirely new business model. And unlike the $40,000 Cybertruck, the 250,000 annual Cybertruck sales, the 20 million annual Tesla deliveries, or the thousands of Optimus robots, this particular product has actually achieved mass production. Not only that. It has extraordinary margins, worth a price-to-earnings ratio of over 300x. There are no meaningful manufacturing costs. No delivery logistics. No warranty obligations. No battery degradation. No recalls. Simply announce the next revolution and let investors do the rest. Perhaps this is the most profitable product Tesla has ever created. A machine that converts expectations into valuation. The SpaceX IPO is the latest and greatest example of that. And, occasionally, valuation into personal liquidity. The Roadster: The Ultimate Achievement Which brings us back to the new Roadster. A machine that can fly over traffic jams, drive upside down and accelerate faster than your broker can issue a margin call. A car so advanced that the mundane questions of price, road legality, mass production and delivery have once again been delegated to a future generation. And the production target? 2028! Magnificent. Eleven years after the original unveiling and eight years after the original production target. But one must understand that Elon operates on a different calendar. In Elon Time, "next year" is not a date. It is a philosophical concept. And that is why I salute the new Roadster. Porsche builds cars. Ferrari builds cars. Lamborghini builds cars. Elon builds anticipation. And while those inferior manufacturers remain trapped in the tedious cycle of designing, manufacturing, delivering and supporting their products, Elon has invented something infinitely more scalable: The perpetual prototype or, as the haters call it, the "dangling carrot". A product that can be unveiled again and again, generating excitement without the inconvenience of generating meaningful revenue. And perhaps this is why Elon believes Tesla could become worth more than the next five largest companies combined. Those companies are constrained by their actual businesses. Tesla has the entire future at its disposal. And the beauty of the future is that nobody can audit it. There is no tedious accountability. At least not yet. So here's to the new Roadster! There's always another Roadster unveiling. Because the future belongs to those who believe. The present, apparently, belongs to those who sell.

We received a deeply personal message from a member today. Most of our days are spent buried in data, models, SEC filings, back testing, algo tuning and keeping up with pertinent news flow. Messages like this remind us that downstream of all of that there are real people, real families and real consequences. That is also what makes our work >10x more meaningful. It also reminds us of the tremendous responsibility that comes with our line of work. We do not take that responsibility lightly and I remind the team weekly of that even though I know they know. There will always be periods when we get things wrong. That is unavoidable in markets. To pretend otherwise would be an outright lie. But the seriousness, effort and discipline we bring to the work every single day is a constant. Very grateful for messages like this, and even more grateful for the trust our members place in us. We also operate with a real sense of urgency. We view AI as a profoundly disruptive technology that may, metaphorically, pull the economic mobility ladder up behind it. Since the dawn of time, smart and hard working individuals in most countries had a reasonably high probability of building a successful life. AI is chipping away at that probability every single day. I may be wrong about that but we do not want to find out too late. That is why we are laser focused on "securing the bag" for ourselves and our members while this window is still open. We may ultimately be wrong about how finite that window is. But the cost of being too early is far lower than the cost of realizing too late that it has closed.

Scammers on X have infiltrating blue checkmark accounts. Here is how the scam works: 1) They leave a positive, credible sounding comment under a post to gain your attention and trust. 2) They then immediately tag or direct you to another account. The first comment is simply the bait. The second account is where the scam begins. I f*cking hate these scammers because they make an already difficult problem even worse: finding the few genuinely useful signal accounts among all the noise. These scammers force us to limit our posts to "Checkmark users" but this latest scam even circumvents that. I'll leave this post open to "Everyone". Just watch and wait for the scam replies to this post.

Cash-strapped NIO @NIOGlobal sells large stake in its battery swapping business to Geely @GeelyGroup. Valuation: Post money, the deal values NIO's battery swapping business (NIO Power) at $2.4 billion, of which $1.5 billion belongs to NIO. Geely's stake is 30% (or up to 34% depending on milestones). Payment: Geely paid $95 million in cash + contributed Yiyi, Geely's commercial battery swapping business. The deal is interesting since Geely's charging technology is extremely fast. Its latest generation station supports up to 2,250 kW peak power, and Geely says the latest Zeekr 001 and Lynk & Co 10 can charge 10%-70% in 4.5 minutes and 10%-97% in 8 minutes 40 seconds (under optimal conditions of course). At first glance, Geely's investment into NIO Power looks strange. Geely has some of the fastest charging technology in the industry, so why invest into battery swapping? (a thread)