CEO at Neurometric. Author of the book "Investing in AI." Still a believer in free market capitalism, globalization, and small government.
NYC mostly
Joined September 2007
- Tweets1.1K
- Following2.3K
- Followers7K
- Likes1.1K
Rob May retweeted
Memo to the Trump administration: Stop buying companies.
A government $40 trillion in debt should be SELLING assets, not buying ownership stakes in 36 companies.
We thought government control of the means of production was what we were fighting against.
Rob May retweeted
When Democrats next gain power, they're going to have to legislatively eradicate Trump's name from all of the things that he's tried to put it on.
With "Trump Accounts", the question will come up, who should the accounts be named after?
My proposal: as an incentive & reward, the accounts should be renamed each year after the person or corporation that makes the greatest donation to them in the prior year. Right now, Dell Accounts. In the future, up for grabs. Healthy status competition with the proceeds going to charity.
Rob May retweeted
Exactly right. Citizens United is the most misunderstood decision in SCT history. The mistake was SpeechNow. We're in the 1st Circuit to fix it, and end Super PACs. equalcitizens.us/against_sup…
Rob May retweeted
Econ 101.
Trump’s tariffs raised prices on more than imports. New York Fed researchers found they also pushed up the cost of American-made goods.
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/america…
Rob May retweeted
New from the New York Fed: "By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly."
About one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates shows up in consumer prices within one year.
• A 10% across-the-board tariff yields a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year.
• About two thirds of the increase comes from pricier imports, which get passed through quickly.
• Another third comes from U.S. made goods, as producers face higher input costs and less import competition. This takes longer, about 6-12 months, to filter through.
How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices?
By Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein
nyfed.org/4j2HHcN
Rob May retweeted
Including today’s jobs report, here’s a breakdown of the jobs numbers since Reagan left office.
George H.W. Bush (Republican, 4 years)
02/89-01/90: +2.035M
02/90-01/91: -138k
02/91-01/92: -693k
02/92-01/93: +1.425M
Total: +2.629M
Bill Clinton (Democrat, 8 years)
02/93-01/94: +2.811M
02/94-01/95: +3.904M
02/95-01/96: +1.812M
02/96-01/97: +3.039M
02/97-01/98: +3.450M
02/98-01/99: +2.893M
02/99-01/00: +3.312M
02/00-01/01: +1.692M
Total: +22.913M
George W. Bush (Republican, 8 years)
02/01-01/02: -1.844M
02/02-01/03: -286k
02/03-01/04: +183k
02/04-01/05: +2.025M
02/05-01/06: +2.646M
02/06-01/07: +2.045M
02/07-01/08: +919k
02/08-01/09: -4.312M
Total: +1.376M
Barack Obama (Democrat, 8 years)
02/09-01/10: -4.277M
02/10-01/11: +1.035M
02/11-01/12: +2.409M
02/12-01/13: +2.011M
02/13-01/14: +2.304M
02/14-01/15: +3.007M
02/15-01/16: +2.642M
02/16-01/17: +2.418M
Total: +11.549M
Donald Trump (Republican, 4 years)
02/17-01/18: +2.032M
02/18-01/19: +2.400M
02/19-01/20: +1.971M
02/20-01/21: -9.168M
Total: -2.765M
Joe Biden (Democrat, 4 years)
02/21-01/22: +7.143M
02/22-01/23: +4.770M
02/23-01/24: +2.256M
02/24-01/25: +1.236M
Total: +14.169M
Donald Trump (Republican, 1 year, 8 months)
02/25-01/26: +324k
02/26-09/26: +452k
Total: +776k
Party Totals
Democrats (20 years): +48.631M
Republicans (17 years, 8 months): +2.016M
data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutpu…
#VoteBlueAmerica #VoteBlue2026
Rob May retweeted
And so it continues... Our economic debates seem utterly disconnected from the reality.
That reality: This is an economy mostly creating healthcare jobs, and it does so month after month, and everything else is just noise.
ALT Line chart titled "Effectively all of the net job creation has been in healthcare and social assistance, and jobs are shrinking in the rest of the economy" showing change in non-farm payrolls since January 2025 through September 2026. Healthcare and social assistance added 998,000 jobs with consistent growth throughout the period, while the rest of the economy lost 222,000 jobs, meaning all net job creation came from healthcare. The rest of the economy showed particular weakness from May through August 2025 when losses reached 218,000 jobs. This striking divergence reveals an unusual concentration where one sector's growth of roughly 48,000 jobs per month has offset persistent contraction across all other industries combined.
Rob May retweeted
Inflation numbers came out today, and the official story is that inflation went down. What the headline number doesn't tell you is that the government changed how inflation is calculated in the same release. A month ago, they said July inflation was 3.7%. Today, they recalculated July with the new formula and it dropped to 3.36%. If you measure August the same way as the months before it, inflation comes out around 3.8%, which means it went up. They didn't bring inflation down, they just changed how they calculate it.
Bessent did something similar with CPI last month. You only modify the way you calculate if they numbers are that bad. They genuinely thought we wouldn't notice...
Rob May retweeted
Summary:
Trump is a terrible person who has no understanding whatsoever about public policy, government, history, law, the Constitution, foreign relations, or much of anything.
He won the 2016 Republican nomination in a fluke with a minority of Republican votes, probably because Kasich wouldn't bow out soon enough.
Unexpectedly even to him, he won the 2016 election with the thinnest of margins.
He agreed to House Republicans' (Kevin Brady's) already designed tax reform bill, based on long established conservative tax policy.
That bill strengthened the economy, particularly the corporate tax cut. The strong economy compensated for Trump's many other policy wrongs.
Covid wrecked the economy and showed Trump in an even worse light. In 2020 voters rejected Trump.
Biden worsened rather than improved the Covid economy through spending-driven inflation.
In 2024 voters returned to Trump because they wanted a return to the pre-Covid economy.
But Trump hasn't delivered on the economy because his policies are harmful to the economy. The people who designed the 2017 tax reform are gone, driven out of office or retiring in disgust.
What went right during Trump's first term was the doing of others, who understood policy and deterred him from his worst inclinations. No one like that was permitted influence in the second term.
Second term Trump is the real Trump, and the second term results are the real Trump results.
Rob May retweeted
Part of me gets very concerned when you see contracts potentially broken, promises broken.
But the skeptical, rational part of me wants to dig in and know more and clarify.
It’s silly to conclude that whatever DeepMind had TWELVE years ago is the code they’re shipping to the DoD now. Sure there’s the brand, the inspiration and maybe prior work that current stuff builds upon. But lots of prior work was published and everyone built on it.
Someone would need to do a detailed analysis of the tech and deliverables but it’s crazy to think that just because Google bought some AI company a dozen years ago they can’t ever give AI to the DoD ever in the future.
I work at Google DeepMind. This won't make me popular. But it's all public reporting:
2014: DeepMind reportedly sold to Google on conditions: no military use, independent oversight
2026: a Pentagon contract for "any lawful government purpose"
Not one safeguard survived intact
ALT Collage titled "Trust is not Governance — an essay from inside Google DeepMind, written in personal capacity." A 2014 memorandum, "Conditions of the Acquisition," lists: military applications of DeepMind technology banned; deployment decisions before an independent ethics board (as reported in Mallaby's The Infinity Machine). Red threads lead to a 2026 U.S. Department of Defense agreement for classified networks reading "any lawful government purpose," with safety settings and filters adjusted at the government's request and no contractor veto (reported terms, The Information, Apr. 2026). Below: a 2018 AI Principles strip ("no weapons, no surveillance") stamped DROPPED 2025, and a Project Mario 2016–2021 tag stamped ABANDONED.
Rob May retweeted
People keep saying Trump term II is the most corrupt administration ever, so I built a model to find out if it was true.
I took the UN's definition of corruption, turned it into eight criteria and 100 points, and scored the leaders history remembers for looting their countries: Marcos, Suharto, Mobutu, Abacha, Obiang, Putin.
Then I put every president since Eisenhower on the same scale, both parties, with every exoneration counted right alongside the convictions.
Nixon scored 41 and no other American President scored over a 25.
Trump's second term scored a 91, which ties him with Suharto and Mobutu and puts him above Marcos and Abacha.
So he is not only the most corrupt president in American history. At this pace he finishes his term level with the most corrupt rulers of the last hundred years.
PSA: don't come in my comments arguing about the results if you haven't read the full article, because ignorance is a choice.
Full article is up now on my Substack (link in bio) and it's free.
Rob May retweeted
Trump Pledges That If Voters Defeat Socialism In November, They Will Each Get An Equal Redistribution Of Wealth From The Government buff.ly/kRXF5x9
Rob May retweeted
Here’s a list of Scott Bessent’s wrong predictions and/or promises that didn’t happen:
February 5, 2025: Long-term interest rates would come down as Trump’s economic policies took effect.
Spring 2025: The federal deficit would move toward 3% of GDP.
Spring 2025: Trump’s policies would produce roughly 3% sustained real GDP growth.
July 8, 2025: The U.S. would collect well over $300 billion in tariff revenue in 2025.
September 1, 2025: The Supreme Court would uphold Trump’s emergency tariffs.
September 7, 2025: The economy would see a “substantial acceleration” in Q4 2025.
December 7–16, 2025: 2025 would finish with 3% to 3.5% real GDP growth.
December 16, 2025: Inflation would see a substantial drop in the first six months of 2026.
February 20, 2026: The economy could grow at least 3.5% in 2026.
April 14, 2026: 2026 GDP growth could easily exceed 3% or 3.5%.
April 14, 2026: Core inflation was falling and the Federal Reserve would need to cut interest rates.
April 14, 2026: Trump’s tariffs could be restored to their previous levels by the beginning of July.
June 2026: Again maintained that 2026 growth could reach roughly 3% to 3.5%.
2025–26: Lower energy prices, fiscal restraint and Trump’s policies would bring down long-term Treasury yields.
2025–26: Faster growth and tariff revenue would materially improve the federal deficit.
And now we get to track this one:
September 5, 2026: Oil could eventually fall to $40–$50 per barrel after the Iran war ends. The economy is now “in the liftoff phase.”
Rob May retweeted
Interesting comment, figured I'd post my reply on my page.
I donated most of the money from my prior exit to charity so I already think about the human impact side of AI.
This didn't make me say we need more humans in the loop (we had a human, she was just annoyed I kept calling her and couldn't do anything to help, and the other human was far away and took forever!)
But you're right, it definitely made me think about failure modes. What happens when systems don't work as intended? Who is harmed by the failure? Are the people/systems in place enabled to fix problems when they come up?
This problem could've been avoided tons of ways. Print a ticket locally and let me pay. Have the remote operator just open the gate. Have a local person sit there watching people leave (costly and not a fun job, but is very effective for these types of situations.) Have her tell me a secret way out (click some button that opens the gate locally).
I drive a Tesla when I'm home and you can see how the AI handles difficult situations, especially when life safety is involved. Some companies in this situation would just eat the $7 and let you go with a remote release. Here you see a company that either didn't equip the operator (or she lied), and really cared more about $7 then their customers.
You’re unable to view this Post because this account owner limits who can view their Posts. Learn more
Rob May retweeted
Trump is of course a liar about using Venezuelan heavy crude oil to refill the SPR.
The SPR has strict quality requirements such as a maximum of 1.99% sulfur content. Venezuelan oil is 5.7% sulfur, which is considered insanely "sour." It also happens to be highly acidic which would eat away at the storage cave walls, likely causing cave-ins and collapse.
There are other requirements, too, such as API gravity. Venezuelan oil doesn't qualify. If you pour it in, you can never get it back out. Too sludgy. It basically just becomes a giant "tar cave" of sludge that's unpumpable.
So once again, Trump is lying about the whole thing. There's much more to this story, too, such as the fact that the 65 billion barrels of oil can't possibly be tapped without at least A FULL DECADE of infrastructure investment in Venezuela, and at least $100 billion in investment funds, plus you have to find all the experts around the world who know how to do these things and somehow entice them to move to what is effectively a war zone where local resistance groups will be targeting them constantly.
So nope, your gas prices aren't going to get any better tomorrow. It's all just smoke and mirrors. As usual.