new week, new numbers, and this one was rough on lighter
i traded less this time, i was busy with stuff irl:
> 202k volume
> OI around 8-9k
> avg hold time 12h
> pairs i traded: $SNDK, $GOOGL, $SPCX, $TSLA, $AMZN
lighter result:
> 6.54 points - $4.20 per point
variational result:
> 2.56 points - $11.20 per point
for comparison, last week i did 386k volume and got:
> lighter - 10.25 points at $0.85
> variational - 2.08 points at $4.19
so lighter went from my cheapest week to one of the worst, ~5x more per point
variational is the opposite: half the volume, and still more points than last week. it's been steady for me
what this tells me:
lighter clearly rewards size and time in the position more than i gave it this week. less OI and shorter holds hit the points hard
next week i want to get back to bigger OI and longer holds
we keep grinding
my weekly lighter and variational points are out, here are my numbers
stats for the week:
> 386k volume
> OI around 16.5k
> avg hold time 16-18h
> pairs i traded: $XAU, $XAG
lighter result:
> 10.25 points - $0.85 per point
variational result:
> 2.08 points - $4.19 per point
to be honest, i expected more points
i did almost 2x the volume of last week, 386k vs 202k, and still got fewer points on both: 10.25 vs 11.19 on lighter and 2.08 vs 2.83 on variational
but the cost per point came out much lower than before: my best was $1.44 on lighter and ~$10 on variational
the reason is funding. at the end of last week and the start of this one it was big and in my favor, so part of the farm paid for itself
what this tells me:
points seem to depend a lot on trading pairs with low OI, so that's what i'm going to test next week
we keep grinding
ref link: robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?… (+10% weekly points boost)
open interest on @entropyIO is now $168.05M
a week ago i posted about it crossing $100M, it was $106.13M then
that's +58% in about 5 days
and here's the interesting part:
> $ANTH alone - ~$130M OI
> that's ~77% of all OI on entropy
> everything else - ~$38M
anthropic is the pre-IPO name everyone wants exposure to, and there's almost nowhere else to trade it 24/7
this is exactly why i trade $ANTH there and hold my positions for 12-24h
but one pair holding ~3/4 of the OI is also a risk
if the anthropic hype cools down or the IPO news turns, a big part of this number can leave fast
what i'm watching now is the rest of the book: if the other ~$38M keeps growing, entropy becomes a real venue, not a one-pair story
and all of this is still without a points program
no promises, size it like a bet
ref link: entropy.io/?r=roky
security first, then scale
in mid-september, the team @variational_io made a decision to redirect a significant part of development resources towards protocol security
this included:
> additional codebase and operational audits
> AI-enabled pentesting
> red teaming
> further security improvements
now public mainnet is getting close, and the trading API is being rolled out to a small group of whitelisted alpha testers before the public launch later this month
a few things i'm watching:
> public mainnet is right around the corner
> trading API access is expanding
> TGE $VAR is still planned for this year
> major partnerships are expected, following the tokenomics update
the interesting part is that the team chose to spend more time on security before pushing towards a wider launch
less hype, more infrastructure
expect more updates later this month
In mid-September, we made the decision to allocate a large chunk of our dev resources towards auditing and further improving protocol security. This included additional audits of both the codebase and our operations, AI-enabled pentesting, red teaming, and more.
Public mainnet is now right around the corner, and the trading API is being rolled out to a small set of whitelisted alpha testers before being publicly launched this month.
We remain on track for this year’s TGE and major partnership announcements that we alluded to in our tokenomics update. Expect to hear much more from us beginning later this month!
crypto invented perps, now wall street gets them on stocks
the CFTC just cleared equity perpetual futures for US exchanges
what this means to me:
> the model is no longer "a crypto thing", it's approved by the US regulator
> US exchanges will compete for the same flow as onchain RWA perps
> but there's no launch date and no listed product yet
meanwhile onchain it's already live:
@entropyIO - stock and pre-IPO perps 24/7
@QFEX - stocks, indices and commodities 24/7
both with USDC margin, both still early
the regulated version will come with brokers, KYC and a slow rollout
the category just got the biggest stamp it could get, and the early venues are still small
$AAPL just landed on @entropyIO, and the timing is perfect
apple reported earnings right before the listing:
> ~$114.5B in quarterly revenue, +12% year over year
> record quarter for iPhone and for services
and still the stock is red after the report, because the market is pricing the risks, not the record
the part i like is not the earnings themselves
it's that earnings drop after the bell, the nasdaq closes, and normally you just sit and wait for the open
on entropy you can trade the reaction right away, 24/7, long or short, straight from USDC, up to 25x
this is the same reason i trade $SNDK and $ANTH there: the market doesn't stop when wall street goes home
a fresh listing also means volume and OI are still low, so i'm watching how fast money comes in. that's usually the first sign of whether a pair sticks
and lately more and more big hyperliquid wallets are trading io markets on entropy
i don't try to guess where apple ends the year
i watch where the size goes, then decide how i trade
25x on a stock right after earnings is a fast way to get liquidated, so size it small
ref link: entropy.io/?r=roky
top perp dexs by 30d volume, october:
@HyperliquidX - $214.99B
@variational_io - $71.71B
@Lighter_xyz - $69.52B
@Aster_DEX - $45.16B
@arcus_xyz - $10.89B
@pacifica_fi - $10.35B
@QFEX - $9B
@OndoPerps - $6.21B
@TxFlow_L1 - $4.6B
@risextrade - $3.81B
@entropyIO - $1.58B
what stands out to me:
> hyperliquid alone is ~48% of this whole list
> the top 4 together are ~90%
> variational and lighter are almost neck and neck, ~$2B apart
then there's a big gap, and everything below $11B is still early
but volume is only half of the picture
qfex did $9B with $130-180M average OI
entropy did $1.58B and just crossed $100M in OI
that's ~136x less volume than hyperliquid, with OI that already looks like a real venue
high OI on low volume means people hold positions, not churn them, and that's the kind of place i want to farm
my setup right now: lighter and variational delta-neutral, entropy and qfex the main early bet
the top of this list is where the money is, the bottom is where the early points are
$9B in october volume on @QFEX and the market is starting to notice
the numbers for the month:
> ~$9B in perp volume
> average OI around $130-180M
> 24/7 trading on RWA: stocks, indices, commodities
> retro points for traders are confirmed
the team raised $9.5M at a ~$90M valuation
now look at polymarket odds on the token FDV after launch, end of september vs now:
> $100M+ - 30% → 39%
> $300M+ - 13% → 25%
> $500M+ - 11% → 24%
and all of this before any points program, with retro confirmed for the people trading it now
this is why @QFEX has been in my 2027 slot: real volume, real OI, and still almost nobody farming it
polymarket odds are not a price, they move fast and can be wrong
open interest on @entropyIO just crossed $100M
and there's still no points program
how it got here:
> end of august - under $10M
> mid september - ~$55M
> mid october - ~$65M
> late october - ~$80-90M
> now - $100M+
that's 10x+ in about two months
what i like the most is that it's OI, not volume
volume can be inflated with wash trading, OI means people actually hold positions with real money at risk
this is exactly why entropy is my main focus: io pairs and pre-IPO markets 24/7, and i hold my trades for 12-24h
and all of this happened without points, without a campaign and without CT shilling
when points get announced, this is the number the crowd will chase, and the early wallets will already be in
no promises, there's still no official word on points
size it like a bet
ref link: entropy.io/?r=roky
8 more fridays until new year, and every extra month without a drop costs a @Lighter_xyz point ~30%
my bet is still a drop under the new year, so i ran the numbers for what happens if it comes later
the base:
> weekly points started on august 21 at 65k and grow by 5k every friday
> 11 fridays so far = 990k points, the last one was 115k
> lighter allocated 11M $LIT for this campaign
if the pattern holds, here's how the pool gets diluted:
> drop under new year, last friday dec 25 - ~2.09M points - ~5.26 $LIT per point
> end of january, 24 fridays - ~2.94M points - ~3.74 $LIT per point
> end of february, 28 fridays - ~3.71M points - ~2.96 $LIT per point
at $3 $LIT, 1 point is worth:
> new year: ~$15.8
> end of january: ~$11.2
> end of february: ~$8.9
my cost per point was $0.85 last week and $1.44 the week before, so in x:
> new year: ~18.6x / ~11x
> end of january: ~13.2x / ~7.8x
> end of february: ~10.5x / ~6.2x
what this tells me:
even a late drop still pays if your cost per point is low. the real risk is a high cost per point plus a long campaign
and live points are not in this math. if they add another 10-15% on top of fridays, every number above gets a bit lower
rough model, not a promise. the price, the weekly growth or the allocation can all change
i keep farming it delta-neutral with organic volume, and i'm still hoping for a new year gift, exactly one year after the legendary lighter drop
ref link that gives +10% weekly points boost: robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
what could 1 @Lighter_xyz point be worth at the new year?
lighter points started on august 21 with 65k points per week, and every week it grows by 5k
last friday it was 105k. if the pattern holds, by the new year we get to ~155k per week
that's ~2.09m points in total
lighter officially allocated 11m $LIT for this campaign
11m / 2.09m = ~5.26 $LIT per point
what 1 point is worth, depending on the $LIT price:
> $4+ (bull case, back to the highs): $21+
> $3.1 (current price): $16.3
> $2.5: $13.2
> $2: $10.5
a point costs me $1-3 to farm. what that is in x:
at $1 / $2 / $3 per point
> $4+: 21x / 10.5x / 7x
> $3.1: 16.3x / 8.2x / 5.4x
> $2.5: 13.2x / 6.6x / 4.4x
> $2: 10.5x / 5.3x / 3.5x
what this tells me:
the margin is thinner than it looks at first glance. at $2 $LIT and $3 per point it's only 3.5x, so the cost per point matters a lot here
my last week was $1.44 per point, at the current price that's ~11x
the price is the main risk. that's why my base cases are 3.1, 2.5 and 2, not a pump
it's a rough model, not a promise: the numbers change if the weekly points or the price change, or if the campaign gets extended
how i farm it:
> organic volume, no wash trading, i hold trades 16-24h
> delta-neutral together with variational and entropy, funding mostly covered the spread last week
> premium to standard made no difference in weekly points, the gap is mostly in live points
would be cool to get a gift for the new year like last year. it would be very symbolic, since it's exactly one year since the legendary lighter drop
ref link that gives +10% weekly points boost:
robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
my lighter plan for this week: trade the low OI pairs
looking at how my lighter rh points were distributed, the pairs with lower OI seem to pay a lot more
there's no official formula, so this is my read, not a fact
the pairs i'll mostly trade this week, with their OI:
> $AMZN - $5.41M
> $TSLA - $5.45M
> $CRCL - $5.86M
> $MSFT - $5.92M
> $META - $6.17M
> $GOOGL - $11.43M
> $NVDA - $13.49M
my guess is simple: less OI means your position is a bigger share of the market, so it counts for more
second thing: upcoming earnings
lighter has a separate tab for pairs with earnings coming up, and from what i see these pairs give extra points
this week:
> $AAPL - 11/2
> $PLTR - 11/2
> $AMD - 11/3
> $CRCL - 11/4
$CRCL is in both lists, low OI and earnings on 11/4, so it's my main pair for the week
one thing to keep in mind: earnings mean big moves, and a gap can hit your liquidation price fast
size smaller, keep more margin, or hedge it on another perp dex
i'll show how it worked in next week's numbers
ref link that gives +10% weekly points boost:
robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
the $ANTH gap between @entropyIO and @Lighter_xyz just flipped to ~3%
short on entropy, long on lighter
for most of the chart the spread sat around -2%, now it jumped to the other side, so entropy is trading ~3% above lighter
the setup is simple:
> short on entropy, long on lighter, same size on both legs
> market direction cancels out, you only trade the gap
> when the prices meet again, close both legs in profit
if the gap closes from ~3% to around 0, that's roughly +3% on the position size, before fees and funding
and while you wait, the lighter leg keeps farming points, so the trade can pay twice
what can go wrong:
> the gap can widen more before it narrows
> funding can eat part of the profit if you hold long
> liquidation risk on each leg, so don't max the leverage
dyor, size it so you can sit through a wider gap
refs:
entropy - entropy.io/?r=roky
lighter rh - robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?… (+10% weekly points boost)
margot robbie explained the housing bubble from a bathtub
now she's buying earnings in pumpkin pajamas on @QFEX at night, when every normal exchange is closed
jokes aside, this is the part people miss:
> stocks, indices and commodities 24/7
> earnings hit after the bell, you can still react
> season 0 is live, retro for traders is confirmed
> and almost nobody is farming it yet
a brick phone and a laptop on a couch is basically my setup too, just without the pajamas
i'd rather be early here than late with everyone else
how much it costs to get into @QFEX season 0
i did the math before starting
the entry ticket for the loss refund is $100k taker volume:
> indices and commodities at 0.05% taker - ~$50 in fees
> equities at 0.10% taker - ~$100
what you get for it:
> a 20% chance to get 100% of your realized losses back, up to $2k
> a spot in season 0, and the team has confirmed retro rewards for traders
if you go further with limit orders on indices or commodities:
> first $1M - up to $200
> next $1M - ~$150
for comparison, $200 on variational buys me ~20-30 points, depending on the week
on qfex the same $200 buys $1M of volume on a dex where almost nobody is farming
the catch: there are no points yet, so you're paying for a retro of unknown size
that's exactly why the crowd skips it, and why i want to be there before points get announced
my plan:
$100k first, then build toward $500k with organic volume and held positions
rough math, not a promise
fees are on you, and your losses can be bigger than the refund cap
my weekly lighter and variational points are out, here are my numbers
stats for the week:
> 386k volume
> OI around 16.5k
> avg hold time 16-18h
> pairs i traded: $XAU, $XAG
lighter result:
> 10.25 points - $0.85 per point
variational result:
> 2.08 points - $4.19 per point
to be honest, i expected more points
i did almost 2x the volume of last week, 386k vs 202k, and still got fewer points on both: 10.25 vs 11.19 on lighter and 2.08 vs 2.83 on variational
but the cost per point came out much lower than before: my best was $1.44 on lighter and ~$10 on variational
the reason is funding. at the end of last week and the start of this one it was big and in my favor, so part of the farm paid for itself
what this tells me:
points seem to depend a lot on trading pairs with low OI, so that's what i'm going to test next week
we keep grinding
ref link: robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?… (+10% weekly points boost)
new week, new numbers
i traded less this time:
> 202k volume
> OI around 12-14k
> avg hold time 18-20h
> pairs i traded the most: $SNDK, $XAU, $XAG
lighter rh gave less, as expected:
> 11.19 points - $2.94 per point
variational went the other way:
> 2.83 points - $9.64 per point
i didn't change anything this week, just kept doing my thing. i was a bit busy with other stuff, so the result dropped, but i'm going to keep doing it
this week i want to get to 350-400k+ volume
we keep grinding
ref link: robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
the biggest crypto hack ever: binance lost ~$6.3B on october 29
here's what got hit the hardest
the majors:
> $BNB - the worst of the top coins, -5-8% depending on the window
> $BTC - dipped to ~$76.4k, the lowest since september 18
> $ETH - wicked down to ~$2,170
the hacker swapped 7 tokens for 70,480 $ETH (~$158M) on-chain, the biggest sales:
> $UNI - $39.63M
> $ENA - $33.93M
> $PEPE - $31.66M
> plus $LINK, $AAVE, $ONDO and $WLD
and the hacker still holds part of the bag in $ENA, $PEPE, $LINK, $AAVE and $ARB, so these can see more selling pressure
the one that went the other way: $HYPE closed the day green, with the ICE news landing at the same time
binance says user funds are safe, it will cover the losses and withdrawals should resume soon
still, a good reminder not to keep more on one exchange than you actually need
were you stuck with anything on binance?
the NYSE parent is building on hyperliquid now
ICE agreed to work with tradexyz on a US-regulated market for perps built on HIP-3
how it's split:
> ICE runs the exchange and the clearing
> tradexyz designs the markets
> hyperliquid HIP-3 is the tech underneath
> ICE also takes a minority stake in tradexyz
$HYPE did +13-15% on the news
it still needs CFTC approval and there's no launch date, so nothing is live yet
but a year ago HIP-3 was a fresh upgrade with a 500k $HYPE entry ticket
now one of the biggest exchange groups in the world is building on it
i'm farming one of the HIP-3 venues right now:
@entropyIO pre-IPO and stock pairs, no points program yet, still early
that's the kind of setup i want before the crowd shows up
dyor, regulatory approval is not guaranteed
ref: entropy.io/?r=roky
morning: trade[xyz] teams up with ICE, tradfi is finally here
afternoon: polymarket gets hacked
night: binance gets hacked
crypto can't stay bullish for more than 12 hours
$VAR at ~$2.6-5.1B according to @AleaResearch, here's how they got there
they only count the revenue that reaches the token
the @variational_io treasury takes 20% of the spread and plans to spend it on buybacks
they took three observed paces of volume and spread:
> Q3 avg - $1.24B a day at 2.35 bps = $21.3M a year to the treasury
> september - $1.97B a day at 2.09 bps = $30.1M a year
> oct 1-14 - $2.84B a day at 1.64 bps = $33.9M a year
peer multiples on that revenue give $2.6-5.1B
on total trading fees the range is much higher, $8.7-23.5B, but peers send most of their fees to the token:
> hyperliquid - 86% to the assistance fund
> aster - 78% to buybacks
> lighter - 61% to buybacks
> variational - 20%
that's why the lower range is the fair one
a few more numbers from the report:
> Q3 - 4th by volume, 3rd by OI
> the treasury already holds 10.89M USDC for buybacks
> at a $1B value, the Q3 pace would buy back 2.1% of $VAR a year, vs 0.7% for $HYPE and $LIT and 0.8% for $ASTER
what this means for 1 point:
at $2.6-5.1B, 1 point is worth ~$75-145
right now a point costs ~$10 to farm, so that's ~7.5x-14.5x
the other side: polymarket puts about 7 in 10 on a launch value below $2B, under the low end of alea's range
so i read $2.6-5.1B as a fair value model, not a launch price
it's their estimate and my rough math, not a promise. the price at TGE can be much lower
i keep farming until the end of the campaign
2024: hyperliquid
2025: lighter
2026: variational
2027: ?
every year the crowd farms the project everyone already knows and the next one is usually already open to anyone who looks
i can't tell you who 2027 is nobody can, and anyone who says otherwise is selling something
but i know where i'm looking:
few users, no points program yet, a product that already works for me that's @QFEX and @entropyIO
no promises from them, no guarantees from me
it's a bet on being early, so size it like a bet
so what's in your 2027 slot?
the @entropyIO team has added a pro terminal
there's a «Pro» button in the top right corner of the trading page
and there's no official announcement yet
what i saw in it:
> a more convenient trading interface
> a separate page to track funding
> an overview of your positions
more features will probably be added later and since it can change, i'm only describing what i see today
but the fact that entropy is building this without any announcement says a lot
the team keeps working on the product, and you notice it only if you're inside
this is what the early stage looks like
you see the changes before they become news
ref: entropy.io/?r=roky
