#TOTAL / $GLD could get more bearish
-200W now resistance
-multi touch uptrend being tested again
-below horizontal very bad for crypto vs gold
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
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#TOTAL went from parabolic to very slow uptrend
Could visit lower part of channel
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$GLD long term uptrend but weak mid term
Could visit lower parts of channel no doubt
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1
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My risk mgmt system has me about 20% QQQ as a general guideline but its only a few percentages away from being cut
I have zero exposure to crypto or metals
Dollar/uup/money market most bullish right now.
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Still not seeing any convincing evidence #TOTAL is a better play then the dollar getting yield, metals basket or QQQ and some differences from prior bear market bottoms on pair charts.
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @LukeGromen @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @JesseOlson @ozzy_livin @StonkChris
#TOTAL/ $QQQ inverted - 200W now flat/support
#TOTAL / $UUP inverted -200W still sloping down, but big bottom formation potential
#TOTAL / $GLTR inverted - 200W now flat/support
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#TOTAL crypto bulls want to create a long wick then reclaim 200W
or just hold it
@JesseOlson @ozzy_livin
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#TOTAL crypto vs $GLTR has never seen this before so “this time is different” in terms of 200W MA
Crypto has always had the 200W sloping in its favor and acting as support against metals basket
Now the 200W is more flattish and providing support to metals instead of crypto 👀
(Inverted chart)
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @JesseOlson @ozzy_livin @benjamincowen
Looks like metals are the better store of value trade even if that means down less based on 200W slope / position
It’s also possible cryptos 15 year bull market / outperformance is over for quite some time
Metals have been in a long term bear vs crypto (mainly because crypto started as such a small asset class so upside was massive)
Going forward could be different
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During the last crypto bottom vs $QQQ the 200W still had a slope favoring cryptos
Now the 200W is more flat and acting as support for qqq instead resistance for it
(Inverted chart)
More evidence crypto isn’t a better play than Nasdaq yet
@JesseOlson @ozzy_livin @NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @StonkChris @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
I’m sure crypto has some bounces but it’s a steer clear until it can beat the Nasdaq imho
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Same story for its pair vs gold
(Well crypto isn’t a stock but it’s a store of value )
Last bear market the 200W provided support vs gold
Now the 200W is support gold instead of crypto in pair
Something different too
If crypto as a tech play can’t outperform Nasdaq .. and a store of value play can’t outperform gold .. what’s the point until it can ?
#total $gld $QQQ
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @NorthstarCharts @badcharts1
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bitcoin:native is often marketed as a leveraged or more explosive Nasdaq play
But are you compensated for that extra risk ?
Since 2017 bitcoin:native is down 60% vs $QLD (2x Nasdaq)
So if you’re looking to swing trade a leveraged Nasdaq why go for the derivative that underperforms ? Why not just swing trade $QLD or $QQQ itself ?
(Inverted chart for reference)
I understand #btc could bounce or go higher over time but if it can’t beat qqq what’s the point ?
Looks like more risk for less return atleast since 2017 (before then when bitcoin wasn’t mainstream you were compensated for the extra risk)
Now with people clicking one button to buy an etf you don’t get the same gains as when bitcoin was on obscure exchanges used for illegal activities
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @ozzy_livin @JesseOlson @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
Crypto has underperfromed $QQQ 33% over 10 years
More risk for less return for now
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#TOTAL / $QQQ inverted
Still no reason to own crypto over nasdaq
Huge base potential
(nasdaq innovates, crypto is perfect as is, and can be HODLed for big gains)
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @LukeGromen @JesseOlson @ozzy_livin @StonkChris
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#TOTAL / $UUP
Crypto not looking like a replacement for the dollar just yet.
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @ozzy_livin @JesseOlson @StonkChris
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#TOTAL / $GLTR inverted making the 200W SMA support
Thats never happened before
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @ozzy_livin @JesseOlson
Crypto struggling vs metals as the "store of value" allocation
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#TOTAL / $GLTR inverted
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1
Nice base for metals vs crypto here esp if it breaks out
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#TOTAL / $GLD inverted
Basing
@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1
Looks like a slight edge to gold vs total crypto for store of value (or lack of it) trade
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