Ryan Cunningham (@rydcunningham) header
Ryan Cunningham (@rydcunningham) profile picture

doing things • energy + compute @ Edgerunner Ventures • Machine Yearning on Substack • ex Uber

San Francisco, CA
Joined February 2012
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
My Experience With the Leaders of the Jensen Coup At the start of 2025, numerous Washington, D.C. based NGOs began spreading the false rumor that DeepSeek smuggled 50,000 H100 GPUs. Speaking from firsthand experience, organized think tanks, PR firms, and lobbyists aggressively personally attacked anyone merely asking them to provide evidence. Call them the Export Controls Deep State, or if that’s too right-coded for you, use the Obama-administration term “Foreign Policy Blob”. The same charlatans are attempting a coup on Jensen Huang, the most indispensable CEO to America’s AI success. If we lost Sam, we have Dario. If we lost Dario, we have Demis. Nvidia is singular. The gap between Nvidia and AMD would be wider than the gap between OpenAI and Mistral, Europe’s top AI company whose models don’t rank in the top 40. This is an attempt to derail the most important company for the American AI industry. The entire coup against Jensen Huang can be halted by asking a single question. What evidence is there that Alice Huang is actually a Chinese spy? The answer, unsurprisingly, is absolutely zero. There is not even the pretense of a factual basis for the claim. “We made it the fuck up, and if you have a problem with that, what are you, pro-China?” Taking away this obvious falsehood, the coup against Jensen boils down to a celebrity tabloid headline. Moreover, without the entirely fabricated ‘national security relevance’, these tabloid headlines would be at best a weekend story in the New York Post. Another basic question: if there is evidence of ‘national security relevance’, why not charge Jensen? The basic answer: they lack even the evidence to justify a warrant. During my time in DC, I was advised repeatedly to stay on the good side of the Export Controls Deep State. I was added to many groups for boosting content spreading the 50,000 H100s conspiracy theory. In several groups, I asked whether there was any evidence behind this claim. One group administrator, who was and still is affiliated with Georgetown, explicitly told me to “focus on bolstering the narrative”. I later posted Patel’s pseudo-correction and was subsequently removed from all of these groups. What you need to understand about the Export Controls Deep State is that they have no incentive to be remotely honest, because they are entirely unaccountable. To this day, they provided zero evidence for their claim. Internet historians later traced the origin of this claim to a tweet by Dylan Patel of Semianalysis. Patel later said they lied about his tweet and that his claim counted legally obtained hardware. Affiliates of universities and think tanks promote these baseless claims and are taken seriously by the national press. In reality, their theories about Nvidia are as kooky as the guy who shot up Comet Pizza. The reason they succeed is not only because they are unaccountable, but because they constantly use their unaccountability to attack others. There are broader foreign policy implications to these observations about political power, but I will stick to what I witnessed firsthand. After Trump’s election, his administration began lifting the export control cap. Surprising no one informed about this policy, America widened our lead. Deepseek was closest to catching up to American models in January 2025, literally the moment of peak export controls. Based on communication with members of the administration, the evidence that a) the export controls were net negative and b) the export controls deep state was acting in bad faith, that as soon as the situation was described accurately, the administration began rolling them back. Part of this is because many of these NGOs are funded by foundations like Open Philanthropy / Coefficient Giving, who explicitly intend to harm American AI companies because they believe American AI will “cause human extinction”. As a result, the BIS under the Biden administration was used as an informal cudgel against AI companies, both to censor in favor of their worldview, as seen in the Gemini scandal, as well as to backdoor regulation to slow down American AI broadly. While they love to accuse everyone else of being traitors, the Export Controls Deep State makes Americans poorer and the American military, to the extent they use AI, weaker. Most of the time, the best you can do is ignore them. They really are unaccountable and the personal retribution isn’t worth the cost. But now, they are leading a coup against the AI industry’s most indispensable man based on lies and tabloid gossip. Everyone should understand that the Export Controls Deep State has never provided any evidence for their claims nor any reason for their word to be trusted.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Tune in to @theInformation’s program this Friday (10 AM PT / 1PM ET) for a short conversation with @akashpasricha and me on the U.S. & China’s contrasting visions for AI development, the role of governance in the so-called AI race, and prospects for U.S.-China AI coordination. In the meantime, happy summit watching and check out @rydcunningham’s and my piece for The Information. We argue that, on its current path, AI risks becoming increasingly unpopular with the American public, the very public whose buy-in sits at the heart of any industrial-revolution-scale technological transition. We ask: are there applicable lessons from China? 🔗: theinformation.com/articles/…. Thanks to @jingyanghk, @nickwingfield, & the information team for making this happen!
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Nobody won the electricity race. We all got electricity. #AI is the same. Software that wants to be everywhere, now small enough to run on a Mac Studio and soon a laptop. The biggest misconception driving bad policy is the arms-race story: a finish line, one winner, winner takes all, and zero-sum world. None of that is true. It misallocates capital and makes the tech less safe. The threat that matters is not state-on-state AGI. It is non-state actors with small, specialized models. It’s Chem/Bio models on a laptop. Cooperation is the only path forward. We can’t compete our way out of the bad actor risk problem. Please have a watch of the full episode of my conversation with @natebjones on the U.S. China AI Race.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Thrilled to announce @positron_ai's $875M Series C at a $5B valuation! This round was co-led by @NEA, @Atreidesmgmt (@GavinSBaker), @valor (@AntonioGracias), @AndraCapital, @SemiAnalysis_ Capital (@dylan522p), and Jim Clark (Founder of SGI and Netscape). An incredible group to have backing what we’re building. Also very happy to have strategic backing from VentureTech Alliance, Hudson River Trading, Cisco Investments, and Naver Ventures, alongside continued support from @Arm , @jumptrading , @dfjgrowth, Qatar Investment Authority, and many more. What I’m most excited about is what this lets us do next. We’re deploying more than 50 racks of Atlas at @OracleCloud, and this financing funds our next-generation Asimov chip’s tapeout, the production ramp for Titan, and the manufacturing capacity to meet the demand ahead of us. The goal remains simple: make running AI dramatically cheaper and more energy efficient. A huge thank you to the entire Positron team, especially @mitesh711 and @kmett, our customers, partners, and investors. Building hardware takes an enormous amount of work, and I couldn’t be more proud of this team. We have a lot ahead of us, and I can’t wait to share more.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Replying to @paulg
Hm the Chinese labs are 100x more public and open than American labs atm
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Bloomberg opened its story today on China's AI "death zone" with my comments: China's progress no longer looks like a single-company breakthrough. The recent releases suggest a repeatable system for producing models close to the global frontier. Five releases in eight weeks: GLM-5.2, Kimi K3, Seedance 2.5, DeepSeek V4 Flash, Qwen3.8-Max. The unit of analysis has shifted from one exceptional lab to a system that keeps shipping.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-W…
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Incredible first day at the World AI Conference in Shanghai...in addition to many sidebar discussions on AI governance, with Ryan Cunningham, visited most of the AI hardware majors at the Exhibition Hall. Yes, compute is the big issue....
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
This special 250th Independence Day, we're celebrating our team & a major milestone. To mark the occasion our team signed the reactor vessel, arranging our signatures into the shape of the American flag. Every breakthrough is powered by the people behind it. Happy 4th of July🇺🇸
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
When simulation becomes the norm, it weakens the human capacity for discernment. As a result, our social bonds close in upon themselves, forming self-referential circuits that no longer expose us to reality. We thus come to live within bubbles, impermeable to one another. Feeling threatened by anyone who is different, we grow unaccustomed to encounter and dialogue. In this way, polarization, conflict, fear and violence spread. What is at stake is not merely the risk of error, but a transformation in our very relationship with truth.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Amanda Askell, who has no children, was previously married to William MacAskill, co-founder of Effective Altruism Dario and Daniela Amodei, CEO and President of Anthropic, used to live in a rationalist group house with Holden Karnofsky, who co-founded GiveWell, an early Effective Altruism-aligned organization Daniela and Karnofsky are now married. Anthropic also received significant funding from Sam Bankman-Fried. SBF was also a prominent Effective Altruism donor, prior to the collapse of FTX due to fraud. These connections between Anthropic leadership and the Effective Altruism community are alarming and if you go down the rabbit hole and trace the money trail, it will be very interesting…
Any sane person would rather entrust Amanda with the future than Musk
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
This article on Chinese humanoids echoes many of my observations from a recent trip: intense domestic competition yielding high quality but low profits, vast local supply chains, substantial gov't supports and capital, and focus on frontier technologies. wsj.com/tech/china-is-going-…
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
The Genesis Mission represents an inflection point for American science and technology. By uniting advanced computing, AI, quantum technologies, and our National Laboratories, we will accelerate discovery and strengthen America’s scientific leadership. genesis.energy.gov
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
BETRAYAL. VIOLATION. TREACHERY. DECEPTION. Anthropic just ran one of the smartest ad campaigns in modern tech history. OpenAI is preparing in-chat ads for free ChatGPT users, driven by an eye-watering burn rate and shaky revenue projections. Checkmate? 1 of 4) BETRAYAL
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
> helped millions get into ai before it became mainstream > built coursera and changed online education forever > founded deeplearning. ai to keep teaching the world > leads major ai projects while staying humble and calm > no scandals no noise just steady work > still codes and still experiments > builds small tools and projects purely for curiosity > teaches only when he has real value to add > doesn’t chase hype or predictions > lives quietly learning and building at his own rhythm has andrew ng quietly figured out life better than everyone else?
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
To beat China, the U.S. needs to paradoxically stop focusing on beating China. And instead focus on being the best version of itself.
To beat China, the U.S. needs to become China.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Technological Optimism and Appropriate Fear - an essay where I grapple with how I feel about the continued steady march towards powerful AI systems. The world will bend around AI akin to how a black hole pulls and bends everything around itself.
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Ryan Cunningham retweeted
Foreign Affairs: The Cost of the AGI Delusion By Chasing Superintelligence, America Is Falling Behind in the Real AI Race I made this argument re: chip sanctions. We accelerated PRC semiconductor development in the long run. The short term pain we inflicted wasn't at all decisive if AGI is still years in the future.
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