Håkan Save Hansson 🇸🇪 🇺🇦

I looked at the numbers we have so far, of voting until 4 PM. By 16:00 on election day, 55.7% of Israelis had voted, against 47.5% at the same hour in 2022. That puts the country at 79% of its final 2022 turnout with six hours of voting left: 1) Negev Bedouin: 58.5%, already past the 2022 final of 56.1%. Lakiya is at 62.7%, up from 47.5%. Most of these votes go to Ra’am. That blocks Netanyahu but doesn’t guarantee an alternative government. 2) Palestinian citizens of Israel: 48.1%, 92% of 2022. Umm al-Fahm and Baqa al-Gharbiyye have already beaten their 2022 finals. This drives an Arab gain I estimate at two to three seats. Turnout is relatively low in Sakhnin and Tamra. 3) Opposition strongholds: 53.2%, 82% of 2022, ahead of every other Jewish sector. Tel Aviv is at 85% of its 2022 final. The posts warning of a liberal turnout crisis have it backwards. 4) Settlements: 57.1%, the highest raw rate of any Jewish sector, but only 78% of 2022. Settlers are mobilized, not surging, so Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit get no extra boost. 5) Right-leaning towns: 48.6%, 76% of 2022. Netanya is at 41.5% and Jerusalem at 47.7%. These cities are Likud’s biggest base, and they are soft. THis is why Netanyahu is so concerned. 6) Haredi cities: 54.6%, only 69% of 2022. Bnei Brak is at 53.2%, against a 2022 final of 76.5%. A late Haredi surge is the coalition’s best remaining hope. They are not doing as well as they hoped and lagging much of the rest of the country. 7) Druze: 32.4%, 67% of 2022, the lowest of any sector. Yirka, which Likud won in 2022, is at 28.8%. The seat cost is small, but it signals that a loyal community is staying home. The violent racism against them is showing. The turnout so far favors the anti-Netanyahu side. The coalition needs a strong Haredi evening and favorable double-envelope ballots, which are counted later. 61 seems completely out of reach for Netanyahu now. But with high Arab votes it seems unlikely that Eisnkot can form a government without the Plaestinian citizens of Israel either.