My predictions for 2026: Coding and Mathematics AGI - METR 50% time horizons above 24 hours - my mean estimate is 30.8 hours, 2 day time horizons possible within frontier labs when accounting for 60 day lag - if 2025 was the year of agents, then 2026 will be the year of multi-agent systems - agents delegating work to subagents -> the start of the agent economy and the great unhobbling! Most of our current math and coding benchmarks will get saturated! - Epoch Capabilities Index ( > 175 ) - FrontierMath Levels 1-3 ( > 95% ) - ARC-AGI 1 and 2 ( > 95% ) - SimpleQA verified ( > 95% ) - Simple-Bench ( > 90% ) - SWE-Bench-verified ( > 90% ) - Terminal-Bench 2 ( > 90% ) - WeirdML v2 ( > 85% ) - Humanities Last Exam ( > 80% ) - FrontierMath Level 4 ( > 75% ) - Cybench ( > 70% ) - GDPval ( > 70 % win rate, no ties) - GSO ( > 65% ) - ARC-AGI-3 ( > 60% and > 80% if they go for o3-preview comparable compute budgets or continual learning breakthrough happens) - more evals like gdpval that capture economic value of models and systems - big focus white collar work and large acceleration of science: specifically i see acceleration in medicine, biology, chemistry, finance, legal, administrative work - automation of white collar work will be enabled by having reliable and fast computer use agents - reliable computer use agents will also have implications for how you use the internet. this is OpenAI's big goal: become the hub to the internet and delegate shopping and whatever to agents! Big models launches to get hyped for in 2026: - Claude 5 - Claude 5.5 - Gemini 3.5 - Gemini-4 - GPT-5.3 - GPT-6 (everything in between possible, but Gemini 4 ~ 80%, Claude 5.5 ~ 70%, GPT-6 ~ 60% likely before 2027) - DeepSeek-V4 - Grok-5 - Qwen-4 - Kimi-K3, GLM-5, MiniMax M3 - more korean models and a bunch of american open-source models :) The gap between closed and open labs will narrow in H1 2026 due to DeepSeek-V4, then widen in the later half of the year, especially on economically valuable tasks. Closed models will be much more reliable. But we will still have Opus 4.5+ level open models by the end of 2026. Most frontier models will be around 5-10T params. If we see GPT-6 and Gemini-4 at the end of 2026 10T+ param models are possible. These models + harnesses will be the first not research agents. We should also see much better live models with voice and video mode. Model architecture: - we will see both, more efficient architectures and more expressive architectures! - hybrid architectures for even longer context windows, diffusion models for speed on edge devices, but also models that double down on full attention or even more expressive attention mechanisms - looped language models, other recurrent architectures and continual learning will enable much smaller reasoning models! (TRM on ARC-AGI has paved the way for the reasoning core) - big improvements in reasoning efficiency in my 2025 prediction I included a prediction for 2026 that I stand by: - "someone (Anthropic) figures out efficient test-time-training [...], this will be the next paradigm for 2026 and lead to superintelligence" General outlook and some random thoughts: - it will be clear to everybody that Anthropic has the mandate and is ahead of everyone else - OpenAI, Anthropic and Google will remain frontier labs - decent chance that Anthropic overtakes OpenAI's valuation and both are valued > 1T - DeepSeek will join them with V4 as THE chinese frontier lab - xAI will likely repeat Grok-4, Grok-5 will be great on benchmarks but Elon persists on slop-maxxing the model - AI generated video content will take off with Veo-4 and Sora-3, consistent minute long videos will be possible - embodied intelligence will start to take off by RL through world models - full self-driving solved, waymo and tesla everywhere - the stock market will have a 20%+ drawdown - 15% chance of OpenAI going bankrupt and getting acquired by Microsoft due to collapse of oracle or a market crash, caused by rapidly deteriorating economic situation (unemployment, inflation) - push against AI will become a common theme in most advanced western economies as unemployment rises - populist right wing parties continue to gain traction in europe - trump/republicans will lose midterm elections

OpenAI is finally going to release GPT-4

guess who's gonna be looping next year don't say I didn't tell you. we will see a cambrian explosion of dirty loopers.

just a friendly little robot

Fable 5.5 is gonna slap literally taking over everything

Distillation really is the word of 2026. The NSA, CISA, and FBI are now warning companies about malicious distillation attacks and recommending ways to mitigate them. Apparently, even DeepSeek-V3 and R1 were partly trained through distillation. But you know which company wasn't mentioned? ByteDance. They're the sleeping dragon. Everyone is completely underestimating them. On top of not distilling American models they have China's largest user base, the most compute, and an insanely cracked research team.

GPT-6.1-Sol reasoning traces totally legible, nothing to worry about

"Musk says SpaceX is on track to bring roughly 200,000 NVDA GB300 GPUs online per month for the remainder of 2026" That is insane. Hopefully most of this goes to Anthropic :P

this is funny because I think anthropic thinks exactly the same thing

I would've liked to see that it beats Haiku especially after the cyber results from Vals

without Jason I wouldn't have gone to SF this year it turned out to be one of the best things I ever did