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LTH NUPL is at ~20%, not the sub-zero capitulation that marked prior $BTC bear bottoms. But those thresholds may not be reachable anymore. As volatility decays each cycle, the peaks and troughs of many on-chain metrics compress, and the extremes get shallower. So I'm expecting a capitulation by time rather than depth here: a grind lower, not a flush. Downside looks limited from these levels.

Real yields are what's left after you strip inflation expectations out of bond yields - the actual return to holding cash over risk. When they rise, safe assets pay more, and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like $BTC goes up. Right now the 90D rate of change in 10Y real yields is strongly positive, back near the top of its range. That's historically been a headwind for Bitcoin.

bitcoin:native has historically bottomed around where multiple key cost-basis models converge. That zone currently sits between ~45k and ~55k. From here, two paths: price flushes once more into the zone, or we see a time-based capitulation where price chops sideways and the cost-basis lines drift up to meet it.

bitcoin:native supply in profit loss ratio is at 1.06. Historically, bear market bottoms have always started forming at these levels.

LTH NUPL hasn't reached the capitulation levels that marked previous bitcoin:native bear market bottoms. It's at ~22, still well above the sub-zero flushes of 2015, 2018, and 2022. Plenty of on-chain metrics suggest a durable bottoming phase may be forming. But not this one. Capitulation isn't only a sharp flush. 2022 was more of a slow grind lower after reaching similar levels we are seeing now. Capitulation by time, not just by depth. We may be setting up for something similar.

Supply in profit and loss are now each at 50%. This is the zone bitcoin:native bottoms have formed from.

$BTC is trading in a high value zone according to our Power Law model. Historically, this has been a great time to accumulate.

Every prior bitcoin:native bear market bottom has shared one signal: LTH NUPL moving below zero. Long-term holders holding unrealised losses. 2015, 2018 and 2022. This cycle, LTH NUPL has fallen below 25% but hasn't gone negative. By this metric, the capitulation that marked every prior low hasn't occurred.