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自从卖了海狗之后瞎折腾了一番，收益没有一点提高，昨天清了癌股所有仓位，港美股还留点put仓位看戏，这个冬天会不会很冷？ – at Guangdong, People's Republic of China
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李录在今年哥伦比亚大学早餐会上的分享：
要实现许多国家都未能实现的目标，就不可能没有巨大代价。这也是中国经济在不同阶段的发展模式：有很大的目标，也有很大的相关成本。你提到房地产。过去五年，推进这些目标的一项主要成本，落在中国中产家庭的资产负债表和家庭财富上。
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2021年房地产价格见顶，一个典型中产家庭约70%的净资产与自住房相关，房子又有大约50%的按揭杠杆。此后五年，全国平均房价下降约40%，他们的家庭财富平均下降约60%至70%。#关键时候要跟紧国家目标
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买了10多年的三菱电机制冷效果突然变差，今天找了个修空调的师傅来看了下：雪种、电板什么的都没问题，也没有堵管，没找出来什么大的问题，清洗了一下内外机似乎好了点，另外一台科龙变换风速吱吱响问题也找到了；
我则搞定了空调伴侣的重新连接、清洗了一下厨房的下水道。心满意足啊！
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精神上的成长肯定要吃很多很多苦才可能成长的，没有第二种办法。xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/69a…
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最近在看马拉松资本的《Capital Return》，挺有意思；
就医疗行业来看，医院大搞基建买设备、建分院是从2020年开始（新冠缺设备、缺病床），一轮基建搞完之后发现需要并没有那么大（一线大的三甲医院当然永远缺病房），拿广州来讲，中山一院和广州市第一人民医院的南沙院区都没有多少病人；
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消極的代價愈來愈大，當年外派東京的年輕美國外交官提姆．蓋特納（Tim Geithner）謹記日本教訓，在二〇〇八年全球金融危機出任美國財政部長期間，便強烈要求銀行迅速實施資本重整，避免重蹈日本災難覆轍。#商業狂人孫正義
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这篇很全面，无序扩张的坏处才开始显现，买单的只能是一线苦逼医生，夜间门诊、周末门诊、全年无休，不停的卷下去。//医疗现状（2025.10.25）：医院的无序扩张恶果显现 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4d4-0lY46…
sjtuwalker retweeted
Druckenmiller offering a masterclass in just over an hour. Will need to re-listen to this again. Takeaways:
- Discipline. No matter how good you are, once your ego inflates its over
- There are many ways to make money in the market, the biggest thing is to have a system
- Think deeply about where and how you went wrong. People who don’t spend a lot of time talking about their failures and focus on their wins are negative signal.
- Historical correlations and patterns break when black swan events happen. So standard risk models break during these events and that is exactly when you want risk management. All models are wrong, some are useful. Use some fancy model if you want but understand when and how it might break and what signals suggest it is breaking.
- Streaks are real. When hot, consider increasing position size compared to when you are cold. The underlying investment decision should not be influenced by the streak.
Stan Druckenmiller turned $900k into $12bn through 30% returns for 30 years with no down years and only 3 down quarters despite multiple crises, including the Savings & Loans Crisis, Black Monday, Black Wednesday, the Asian Financial Crisis, the Dot-com Bubble burst, and the Great Recession.
While he is active on the media circuit today, he never gave a public long-form talk while actively managing client money. But in 2009, one year before he retired, he gave a fireside chat reflecting on his career up until that point. Perhaps because he was still active, or because he was speaking to a group of traders (that he worked with, no less), he is more precise in his answers than he typically is, including specific details and numbers with regards to his trading process, frameworks for position sizing, the setups and aftermaths of specific trades and trading periods (including how he actually made money on the bet that broke the Bank of England and the “worst memory of his life” trading the Indonesian Rupiah), and more!
Letter #300: Stan Druckenmiller and Jeff Feig (2009)
Stan Druckenmiller was the Founder of Duquesne Capital and Manager of the Quantum Fund. Jeff Feig was most recently at Fortress Investment Group as Co-CIO of the Fortress Macro Fund & Co-President of Liquid Markets, and before that Global Head of Foreign Exchange at Citi.
[Full transcript Stan’s fireside chat in link in bio]
