Ex-founder. Learning in public about AI, markets, and human behavior: the tech, money, psychology and memes shaping what comes next.
Joined September 2009
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13+ years in the market.
One thing I have observed consistently is that people know exactly what they were doing once the outcome is revealed.
Then there’s the second aspect: over reliance.
Because of the incentives and uncertainty inherent in markets, it is very easy to develop excessive trust in external advice. And if the source is sufficiently sophisticated, they can exploit that setup to shape the narrative and influence how outcomes are interpreted.
Wins reinforce expertise. Losses can be reframed as bad timing, unforeseeable events, or something the follower supposedly misunderstood.
Over time, this can create the perception of a consistently accurate source even when the underlying track record is far more ambiguous.
Previously, this was hilariously easy. Nowadays it’s a bit trickier, but...LLMs bring in a funny dynamic...urgh.
Analyzing all of this requires way too much thinking.
I just want to eat Korean fried chicken and post memes.
Haha, tbh, I’m with 10 years in the market, and I’m not sure I’d call 2020 & 2022 “stock market collapses.”
2022 was definitely a tougher environment, mainly because the recovery was so slow, but neither really felt like the huge crash or recession all the bears had been waiting for.
That said, just because someone has experience doesn’t mean they’re always right.
Here’s a little souvenir:
Let's blame the sunlight for what happened to markets last week! Block the sun next week and we are good
🚨BREAKING🚨: Scientist says the sun may be conscious, intelligent plasma clouds may transmit semantic information across outer space, and ball lightning seems to behave intelligently, mimicking biological life.
Rupert Sheldrake, a biologist known for constructing morphic field theory, which involves inherited learning across generations of species beyond genetics and epigenetics, says organized plasma might support a mind without a brain. He points to magnetic plasma filaments stretching between galaxies and describes a theory from independent researcher Robert Temple: a cloud at the L5 Lagrange point between the Earth and Moon might be intelligent enough to return radio signals seconds after transmission (explaining the “Long Delay Echo” phenomenon in the early 20th century at the advent of the radio).
Sheldrake’s other investigations into morphic fields, consciousness outside the body and “the sense of being stared at” have drawn attention from British intelligence. He has long documented the idea of “scopeasthesia” (the sense of being stared at) by subjects in controlled experimental conditions. He says a visitor from MI5, Britain's domestic intelligence agency, asked whether terrorists could learn to sense security cameras.
His theory of morphic resonance goes further, proposing that nature inherits patterns of behavior across time and distance. Sheldrake cites rat water-maze studies in which rats at Edinburgh and Melbourne began at the level reached by Harvard rats after generations of “training” to follow the correct route in a maze. He interprets this as possible evidence of shared memory. To illustrate how invisible fields can influence chance, he uses magnets to change the distribution of steel balls falling through a Galton board.
Sheldrake wants practical tests of these unusual abilities. He proposes a global app collecting reports of strange animal behavior before earthquakes, and is surveying firefighters who say they wake moments before unpredictable alarms. He believes he can construct a workable model for presentiment that may become practical for specific use cases.
Full conversation live now. youtu.be/uvRzhb2Pef4
Fair value of $INTC is $0. A lot of new comers in semicon investing don't understand the importance of scale, track record and experience.
Israel production issue is not Intel's fault. It's bad luck.
But, not having enough substrates is absolutely their fault. Head of supply chain deserves getting fired.
And messing up PC/Server mix is their fault too. That would require heads of two divisions.
These people are paid millions to do their job right. They can't just come in front of investors and make lame excuses.
Primary job of "a job" is not to earn money but to prevent people from killing each other. An idle mind is a devil's home as they say
“AI is going to take your job!”
I FUCKING HOPE SO.
Take my job. Take your job. Take everyone’s job.
Automate the entire economy.
Make intelligence practically free. Make labor practically free. Drive the cost of everything down.
Why are we treating the elimination of human labor as some kind of tragedy?
For thousands of years, humanity has dreamed of a world where machines do the work and people enjoy their lives.
Now that we’re getting close, everyone’s having a mental breakdown.
I don’t want a better job.
I want a world where nobody needs one.
I dont get why we have chinamaxxers, us maxxers etc. Like don't you want everyone to do well so that humanity progresses? What do you get by putting down the other side?
Example #1,000,000 of gambling companies falling back on the technical definition of probability when called out, while spending the rest of their time marketing probabilities as certainties
so gamblers bet heavily on brazil elections after seeing a clear trend and thinking ez money but then got hit by an out of distribution data point. and now they are crying?
you love to see it!
Seeing all these AI startups in the US raising millions is honestly bittersweet. My own startup received €60K in funding, while on a recent trip to the US, I learned that a startup at a very similar stage had raised $1.5 MILLION?!
Ah hell nah, humans have been generating slop for decades, and all it took was an “unconscious,” “artificial,” poorly generalizing, world-model-less, em-dash-generating stochastic parrot to expose generations of mediocrity?
I am noting down everyone's name during this drawdown. When the time comes I will tag evey single of these fkers!! You'll see generational commentary!! I don't forget or forgive!
"@aleabitoreddit dumped their whole $SIVE holding, they've been so quiet, they're just a liar" MAYBE Serenity is sick of you ppl with a 5 sec memory needing them to constantly strengthen your conviction for you?! They gave you all the info and ALWAYS said to wait until 2027.
All these companies complaining about higher memory prices - just get your finance dept to invest in the same memory shares you are buying from. Math is simple
use cash to buy the shares (always buy shares using cash) and use credit to buy the actual product! GGEZ
Markets are down because of CPI? We moved from Pluggables to CPO to NPO to CPI in a year?
HOLY SHIT. We're witnessing a generational acceleration in technological development.
Keep buying! Your favourite photonics stock will soon be making Co-Packaged Internet too! nw.
Maybe I should've spent more time posting sarcastic ragebait to farm engagement and collect X revenue. Seems to have worked wonders for some accounts.
Let me see if this works again
Once China starts mass producing DCs in its factories $NBIS is going to 0.
AI is a bubble. Demand is fake. Sell everything.
China will flood the market with supply and eliminate the AI supply demand imbalance.
$META plans to sell excess compute. AI overcapacity is coming.
CPO is delayed and you're getting played.
turns out RSI is just:
scale → AI discovers cheaper matmul → scale harder → repeat
OpenAI's Math post is up!
github.com/openai/math
