Heimdall Global - the regulated layer for B2B Prediction Markets: hedging real-world exposure & 24x7 risk transfer #FMI
Abu Dhabi
Joined January 2009
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Last night's CPI print moved rate expectations in seconds. A rates desk can hedge that before the coffee's cold. A mid-size importer on a floating rate loan can't, not in a size that fits. Same risk, very different access. That gap is the real market-structure problem.
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Prediction markets are turning into derivatives venues. Binary contracts settle once. Perps never do. Every hour, funding moves and margin gets called, including at the weekend. That is not an app problem. It is a clearing problem.
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Most firms can hedge fuel, rates or FX. Very few can hedge the thing that actually hits the P&L: a port delay, a monsoon, a health-plan renewal. Those risks have natural buyers and sellers. The missing bit is a contract, a mark and someone who stands behind it when it gaps.
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Stuart B Richardson retweeted
Pms as insurance for businesses that can't buy traditional hedges
an la ice cream shop loses 20-30% of sales below 70F. they put ~$20/day on kalshi weather contracts and in a good month cover about half their rent, with payouts landing on the quiet days.
weather derivatives used to be enron/cme products for utilities but now the unit size fits a soft serve shop.
the open design problem: basis risk.
the contract settles on a weather station, not the till.
whoever builds markets that settle closer to real cashflow wins the next wave of volume.
Prediction Markets go institutional:
A new asset class is scaling rapidly to enable continuous risk transfer - with transparency, unlike insurance.
IB+FCM distribution is a core driver; with each contract inspiring and begetting the next.
Time to unlock the art of the possible 🪄
Kalshi now lists perpetual futures on oil and the S&P. Prediction markets are turning into derivatives venues, and that changes what they need underneath.
Futures markets solved this with clearing houses decades ago. Event markets are now big enough to need the same thing, running 24x7.
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Tokenised collateral only helps if it can be pledged, margined and settled at any hour.
That is the work we are doing at @Heimdall_Global.
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Prediction markets need to be measured through more than one lens, especially now that longshot combos are increasingly inflating volume.
A $5 combo at 0.1¢ adds $5,000 of volume. A $5 bet at 5¢ adds $100. That's 50x the volume, but only 1.2x to 1.5x the fees for @Kalshi.
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Stuart B Richardson retweeted
@fundstrat Tom Lee believes we’re not bullish enough @robbiepetersen_ says it’s DeFi’s institutional breakthrough …
@Heimdall_Global knows that the rails and infrastructure is the foundation for both
Most freight and inventory risk is still priced once a quarter, in a contract nobody can trade out of.
That is a strange way to run goods markets that reprice every day.
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When staples and freight reprice in hours, a weekly report is too late.
You want markets that clear the risk while the physical market is still moving.
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Inventory, freight and delay risk still sit as embedded premia in goods prices.
Continuous markets move that risk to people who can hold it. Building that layer at @Heimdall_Global.
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