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Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro

@super_macro

Daily macro note for serious investors. Ex-Brevan Howard PM (12 yrs). Rates, FX, equities — what the data means and how to trade it. ↓ Free 30-day trial

 London
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Joined February 2023
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Paris Under Pressure, the Periphery at Peace France's OAT/Bund spread has tightened slightly. But with the April presidential election still months away and little prospect of the deficit falling below 5% of GDP anytime soon, uncertainty will stay elevated.
#inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #Bunds #OAT

ALT #inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #Bunds #OAT

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But this isn’t 2012 all over again. Italy and Spain spreads remain well behaved, and Euro Stoxx 50 implied vol is running at less than half its 2012 crisis level. For now, the stress looks contained within France’s borders. SuperMacro’s weekend note has the full picture.
#inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #OAT #France #Le Pen

ALT #inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #OAT #France #Le Pen

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The AI boom is running out of cheap money
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you tube youtube.com/watch?v=e974gv7L… super-macro.com/subscribe for a 30 day free trial of our morning note.
The AI Boom Is Running Out of Cheap Money

The AI Boom Is Running Out of Cheap Money

Tech credit default swaps have doubled from 50 to 100 basis points,...

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YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=e974gv7L… super-macro.com/subscribe for a 30 day free trial of our morning note.
The AI Boom Is Running Out of Cheap Money

The AI Boom Is Running Out of Cheap Money

Tech credit default swaps have doubled from 50 to 100 basis points,...

youtube.com
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The PPI-CPI Gap Is Wide, and It Rarely Stays That Way Producer prices are surging, and it’s unlikely firms can absorb this through margins. Headline PPI +1.3% m/m, the strongest in 4+ years, and +6.4% y/y. Core PPI (ex food, energy & trade services) +0.5% m/m, +5% y/y, the fastest since 2022. The PPI/CPI link is loose, but core PPI this hot rarely fails to pass through to core CPI.
#inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #CPI #PPI

ALT #inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #CPI #PPI

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Institutional-grade macro analysis covering rates, FX and equities, delivered daily before London opens.

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The next bond rally is the one to sell
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Youtube youtube.com/watch?v=XTCi4EtT… For more in-depth analysis super-macro.com/subscribe
The Next Bond Rally Is One to Sell

The Next Bond Rally Is One to Sell

The US Treasury is buying back $4 to 6 billion of long dated bonds ...

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“Trump Says Inflation Will Pay Off the $40 Trillion Debt Very Rapidly.” what a great banner to convince future buyers of your paper that its a good bet.
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Hedge funds have more info not better info !
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Full podcast youtube.com/watch?v=xqjctLop…
What Now for Bonds?

What Now for Bonds?

France's deficit is heading for 5.4% this year, the government's pl...

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Europe's Calm Equity Market Is Ignoring a Bond Market Warning The calm in European equities is striking — and increasingly hard to explain. The ten-year OAT/Bund spread is above 140bps. The last time it traded here, during the 2011/12 sovereign debt crisis, the V2X gauge of European equity vol was north of 50. Friday's close: 19.3. Something has to give. Our note sets out what we think it is.
#inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #sx5e #implied vol #realised vol

ALT #inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor #sx5e #implied vol #realised vol

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Institutional-grade macro analysis covering rates, FX and equities, delivered daily before London opens.

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The market isn't taking any prisoners
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Full episode on youTube youtube.com/watch?v=xqjctLop…
What Now for Bonds?

What Now for Bonds?

France's deficit is heading for 5.4% this year, the government's pl...

youtube.com
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US Equity Supply Is Back: Net Issuance Turns Positive After 20 Years The 20-year shrinkage of US public equity supply is over. Net issuance: +$45bn in Q1, +$152bn in Q2, the largest quarter ever. Anthropic ($100bn), SB Energy ($50bn) and Inspire Brands ($20bn) are still to come. Supply will be a headwind for the S&P 500, or at the very least a tap on the brakes.
#inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor

ALT #inflation #macro #real estate #economy #fixed income #equities #fx #dollar #FedFund #mortagaes #Fed #ECB #BoE #BoJ #rates #volatility #TIPS #VIX #SuperCore #earnings #assets #liabilities #balance sheet #options #calls #puts #spreads #swaps #recession #gold #payrolls #unemployment #wages #fedfunds #silver #Trump #tariffs #Lutnick #Bessent #Warsh #S&P #Tech #Semiconductor

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