謝晉凡

Is Russia a Threat to NATO? The answer is: Russia is not an immediate threat because Ukraine has chosen to fight them. If Ukraine had welcomed Russia, as Putin expected, and joined forces, EU politicians would be changing their diapers by now. Moldova would likely fall quickly, with an active army of less than 10,000 personnel. The Baltic states wouldn’t hold out for long. The Polish army had contingency plans to retreat behind the Vistula River to hold defenses if they lost 40% of their territory. Putin could even have made demands for East Germany (as it was part of the Soviet Union). History doesn’t work with “what-ifs.” If someone had prevented 9/11 by implementing security checks in airports beforehand, they wouldn’t be hailed as a hero; instead, they’d likely be criticized for the inconvenience. Similarly, no one would have praised someone for stopping the Nazis from coming to power in Germany, as the horrors of the Holocaust would be unknown. This is because we don’t recognize what has been prevented if we never see its consequences. So, while we don’t know what would have happened if Ukraine had welcomed Russian forces with open arms rather than with resistance, we do know Russia’s intentions, which have been articulated many times and are embedded in their culture (ever seen those “To Berlin” stickers on Russian cars? They mean it). We have a historical memory of the genocides they committed and can expect they intend to repeat them. If Ukraine falls, most likely Russia will take several years to rebuild its strength, to reeducated and brainwash Ukrainians, and then the combined forces of the two countries will continue its expansion into Europe. “Oh, but that could never happen.” Think again. Just 35 years ago, Soviet troops, including Ukrainians, were stationed in East Germany. Chechens fought bravely against russia in the 1990s, but now they are forced to fight in russia’s army against Ukraine. Similarly, Ukrainians from territories occupied since 2014 have been conscripted into the russian military and sent on brutal "meat assaults." If Russians conquers Ukrainian, they will come for you next.