An American fantasy/horror writer in Germany. I talk about metals, energy, current events but am not an expert. The only advice I'll ever offer is on writing.
Joined January 2021
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I don't want to get everyone too excited about #silver, but you see that little highlight? That's the first day of positive momentum since August 28th. Things are looking up.
A few more of those and we can get the weekly to go green too. That would be exciting.
TTF/JKM can fall more before it goes to oversold on the daily/weekly levels. I know we aren't at the bottom yet, because no one has dropped by to let me know how stupid I am for not selling the top.
It's just crazy to me that this crash is happening while reserves bleed so hard.
On a long enough timeline, gold miners go to zero priced in gold. I can't decide if that's funny or not.
What? Another officially denied deal spiking the oil market? I'm shocked. Who could have seen this coming. Maybe we'll see $83 afterall.
$INTC had the smallest run of any of the major tech stocks, and is currently resting heavily on this resistance. It would have to go down to about $23 to be oversold. Not saying that will happen, but that is the bottom of the channel.
Fear is starting to spread among tech. MU would have to drop another $200 to go to oversold, but it should be that tiny red momentum candle that should worry them.
EU storage fell 3.78Twh on the 8th. Almost half a percent of annual peak storage on a single day. The curve is getting steeper.
Great thread that threatens becoming lost in my comments. Thank you @cmdtsjnky. Very granular, and I largely agree. I don't buy futures, but I think most producers will have a very profitable winter.
We shouldn't be getting serious draws this soon, period.
EscapeFromUtopia retweeted
"Mom can I read Hatchet?"
"No dear we have Hatchet at home."
The Hatchet at home:
Just a little more and we yet might get a positive comparison on EU LNG imports. I continue to hope for good news.
Adjusted for inflation, oil has been cheaper than it is right now for 55 of the last 75 years. Only the Ukraine War Spike, the boom years where demand outpaced supply in the 2000s, and 70's oil crisis were higher.
Today's disruption is worse than all of them. Higher.
Draws have BARELY started. Why do I care?
In 3 of 5 previous years reserves are slowly rising this time of year. In 2 they are flat. This is the earliest and sharpest fall by a month because of reduced imports.
It's not even cold yet. Nights dip below 0 where I live on Friday.
This is 365 days of data, and roughly the same October/November temperatures. Look how different these slopes are when you zoom in.
Last year Germany burned 8.4% of it's reserves in November. The year before it was 7.6%. We've burned 1% in 4 days and iit hasn't gotten cold yet.
Energy took a pounding this week, but look at where they are on a PE basis despite being near ATH. EQNR 8.7. XOM 17. TNZ 15.5.
I find EQNR especially baffling. It's bought back a third of its shares in 5 years and its paying 3.7% dividends.
I'm pretty happy with how #silver ended the week. It made it back in its wedge after daily/weekly RSI went oversold. Monthly is still pretty far above the long term capitulation point (red) but time will take care of that. For now its enough that daily momentum is trying to turn.
Taking a braod look at #silver. Weekly RSI says a bottom is around here somewhere, but momentum is in the toilet. Take a look at what those crossovers portend, historically.
$EQNR is back to the red all-time-break-out line. It's terrified to go above it. I don't care. Profits up. Volumes up, share count way down. On a MarketCap basis, its worth less than it was during the circled period, which makes no sense to me.
While $XOM has gone below it's current RSI number several times in the last couple of years, it's bottom is close at hand. Still overbought on weekly and monthly, but I don't think the trend has changed.
#Oil's bounce is making me wonder if I've misdrawing the bottom of the pennant. Higher would fit everything but the summer breakdown, and shorten it by quite a bit.
