Russia's relays in Europe still sound trapped in the 2023 script. The irony is that Moscow appears to understand deterrence better than some of its EU admirers: great powers threaten, posture and probe, but they also calculate.
Weddady retweeted
Very satisfying to see the NBC documentary I worked on last year, exposing the key role being played in eastern DRC by Rwandan troops - despite Kagame's denials - picking up a media award. Rwanda's armed intervention has only expanded since then.
#DeadlineClubAwards Winner — Digital Video Reporting
@NBCNews: "Hidden Invasion: Inside Rwanda's Covert War in Eastern Congo"
By NBC News staff
#Journalism #DeadlineClubAwards2026
Here’s a deliberate oversimplification: Russia re-invaded Ukraine in 2022 assuming artillery production and manpower would decide the war.
In 2026, Ukraine is out-droning Russia.
Wars punish armies that adapt too slowly.
MORE: ISW is no longer prepared to forecast when Russian forces might seize Donetsk, including the Fortress Belt, since the slowing rate of Russian advances and the challenging nature of the Ukrainian-held terrain in Donetsk makes it unclear that Russia is capable of seizing the territory at all. ⬇️
Russia’s exaggerated territorial ambitions and aggressive territorial demands run completely counter to battlefield reality. Anonymous sources in contact with Putin and additional sources familiar with the matter as well as a Ukrainian intelligence assessment shared with FT indicate that senior Russian commanders have convinced Putin that Russian forces could seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Fall 2026. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have only advanced 349.89 square kilometers in Donetsk Oblast since the start of 2026, an advance rate of 2.63 square kilometers per day.
Strong Ukrainian fortifications, the area’s challenging human and physical geography, and Ukrainian counterattacks and mid-range strike campaign that are already inhibiting Russian offensive operations across the theater make the prospects for a Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk dim.
Russian forces first infiltrated into Kostyantynivka (the Fortress Belt’s southernmost city) in October 2025 and have failed to make any significant tactical gains in the city over the last six months. Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine since early 2026 have also forced Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and resources to priority sectors of the frontline, including the Fortress Belt.
Ukraine’s recent successes are accomplishing tactical, operational, and strategic battlespace effects that undermine Putin’s narrative that the Ukrainian frontlines are on the verge of collapse. Two people involved in back-channel negotiations over ending the war told the FT that Putin’s ambitions are still to control all the Ukrainian territory between Russia and the Dnipro River, and possibly farther into Kyiv City and the port of Odesa, despite Russia’s stalling offensive. Putin’s thinking thus appears to be further and further removed from battlefield realities, likely resulting in the issuance of orders to the Russian military to make gains that it is not capable of making.
Plenty of ironies here:
- one of the rare moments Sputnik accidentally broadcasts reality
- real-time realization that Putin’s Russia is becoming an anachronistic construct
Darkness continues to descend upon the Russian propaganda matrix, with mainstream propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova saying that Ukraine is "collapsing us" and not only advancing but "winning" due to technological and numerical advantage in drones.
She further agrees with the host that even of they announce mobilization, they have nothing with which to arm them.
In 1941, Soviet troops marched through Red Square on their way to the front. In 2026, much of the military hardware at Putin’s parade existed mainly on screens. Empires reveal themselves in moments like these.
“Europe is our only hope” is ultimately a bet that the continent that produced the Enlightenment, fascism, communism and two world wars has truly changed. Europe’s current nationalist turn suggests history may not be entirely finished with Europe yet.
You can see the ghosts of Pham Van Dong and Kissinger in this exchange.
One side signaling patience and good faith, the other negotiating through pressure. The difference now?
Both think they’re the patient side.
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Iran’s problem is that its chess-playing strategy can still be neutralized by blunt checkers moves. That’s the gap between a regional power and a superpower.
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The Iranian regime realizes that reopening Hormuz and lifting the blockade alone are not enough to justify the damage Iran suffered. This is no longer just about posturing. It’s about reconstruction costs, recovery and time.
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UPDATE: Navigation will return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz if the war ends and the blockade as well as sanctions are lifted, says Iran's FM
🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/h5pevi?update=45541…
Cheap planes and smart drones are changing warfare: imagine this in the Sahel, in small border wars, or in the hands of militias. It’s only a matter of time. this is getting easier and cheaper to put together.
The SPG-9 is so old there are iconic images of Egyptian troops carrying it on their backs across the Bar-Lev Line in 1973. Paired with tablets and phone apps in Ukraine, it becomes something new again: another cheap, low-tech/high-tech killer.























