₿itcoin & Freedom
Texas
Joined June 2025
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William Wallets retweeted
There’s a lot of debate in the Bitcoin treasury space right now. Let me share how I think about it, as an investor not a CEO, in simple terms.
A Bitcoin treasury company is, fundamentally, a balance sheet.
That balance sheet can be managed through different capital structures: ordinary equity, preferred shares, traditional debt, convertibles, and so on.
Each comes with trade-offs. Cost of capital, risk, investor appetite and the degree of leverage (or amplification) are all important considerations.
There is no single structure that is right for every company, at every point in time. There are always trade-offs.
But ultimately, a company belongs to its shareholders. Capital allocation decisions should be made with one objective in mind: maximising long-term shareholder value.
For a Bitcoin treasury company, I think it is important to understand:
1) Bitcoin per share: how much Bitcoin does each share represent?
2) Future growth potential / sustainability: how much can that Bitcoin per share grow over time?
3) Risk: what risks are being taken to achieve that growth, particularly over the investment time horizon that matters to you?
Different companies will pursue different strategies, and that's absolutely fine. What matters is whether those strategies create value for shareholders over time. And obviously beat Bitcoin performance as that is the benchmark.
As an investor, I'll continue to assess both the short-term and long-term implications of management decisions, alongside each company's current valuation, growth potential and risk profile. And I'll allocate my capital accordingly.
Ultimately, it's not about which capital structure is best in isolation. It's about which decisions create the most long-term value per share balanced against the risks that you are comfortable with.
William Wallets retweeted
It’s been 2 weeks since I launched my BULLISH private Bitcoin subscription on X as a 30-90 day experiment.
As you now know - my public content has not stopped - and the subscription as I said would be for new and nuanced conversation for bulls only.
For those who are members of BULLISH I would appreciate if you can drop a review about whether it’s been valuable and worth it in the first two weeks alone:
BULLISH is 1 of 1. The dialogue in this group is next level.
Salute to the legend @BritishHodl
It’s been 2 weeks since I launched my BULLISH private Bitcoin subscription on X as a 30-90 day experiment.
As you now know - my public content has not stopped - and the subscription as I said would be for new and nuanced conversation for bulls only.
For those who are members of BULLISH I would appreciate if you can drop a review about whether it’s been valuable and worth it in the first two weeks alone:
William Wallets retweeted
Seeing a bit of confusion out there around BTC Yield (growing BTC per share) being classified as a short-term KPI.
The reason we classify it as a short-term KPI is because it is a metric we can influence through the course of our normal operations over relatively short timeframes. What we are effectively saying is that BTC Yield is the metric front and center as we run the business and capital markets each day.
Management teams need to focus on the metrics directly within their control to guide daily decision-making. For us, that means driving towards positive BTC Yield.
We believe the combination of growing BTC per share and maintaining high amplification while Bitcoin is near historically inexpensive levels creates the ideal setup to drive long-term outperformance of our common stock relative to Bitcoin.
Amplification acts as a rate-limiting function on common equity issuance. If you issue too much common equity, amplification can decline quickly. As Bitcoin moves higher and amplification naturally declines, maintaining our target means leaning more heavily on products and capital formation strategies that increase amplification (preferred) rather than decreasing it (common).
Amplification targets can and should adjust throughout market cycles, but issuing too much common equity during an early bull market move could erode amplification too quickly and take away some of the gain potentials as it is harder to move it back up to range as Bitcoin continues moving higher. Every action must be taken in balance, keeping you in position, with a focus on capturing and continuously growing value for shareholders over the long run.
Our incentives are built around driving that outperformance. Management’s long-term incentives come in the form of common equity, so we are focused on taking the actions today that we believe will create the greatest long-term outcome. This is why alignment of incentives to common equity holders is so critical.
“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” - Charlie Munger
Every day brings new decisions. Define your strategy, set your targets, and execute relentlessly toward extraordinary outcomes.
William Wallets retweeted
At current entry prices, I’m advising friends to stack all three.
My general philosophical bias is to target accumulating 0.1BTC first (comfortable retirement guaranteed) — but at today’s cheap entry prices I think stacking both clue chip BTCTCs alongside it is a perfectly reasonable way to accelerate returns, and almost certain to outperform pure BTC this cycle.
For example, a few buddies are DCAing $10/day each into BTC, MSTR, and ASST, with BTC stacking faster since it fires on weekends too. That’s $11,500 invested per year, with a likely blended CAGR of 30-60% over the next few years.
Should easily reach $500k in a decade, and likely $1-2M. Phenomenal outcome for such an attainable DCA goal.
Add in $10-20/day of SPCX for powerful diversification and even more supercharged returns.
Grounded and obtainable 10-year retirement plan for most households.
No financial advice.
William Wallets retweeted
Bitcoin has held up pretty well all things considered.
Tech and AI stocks have taken a beating over the last week. The Binance hack was the largest in history and the midterms are days away.
Sentiment is bad right now but it's a lot better than when we were trading at $63,000 in August.
Naturally, all Bitcoin-related equities have suffered in this downturn but I would not be panicking at this stage.
The truth is, demand for hard assets will only increase as AI destroys all moats. Equities are priced on a multiple of expected future earnings, and many of those earnings are likely to be disrupted by AI.
Real estate is priced on the expectation that people will still be able to leverage their salaries 30 years from now. There's a lot of uncertainty in this regard.
You want the asset AI can't replace or make more of.
Stay focused.
$BTC
William Wallets retweeted
Yesterday, $SATS was the 5th most liquid preferred equity in aggregate dollar volume, and #1 in liquidity relative to its size.
SATS hasn’t even paid a dividend yet, they start on November 9th.
Still early days, but the interest and demand appears strong.
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen a lot of chatter on X about capital market activities that were or were not taking place by ASST.
After really sitting with some of the takes and criticisms, I come back to this clip of @ColeMacro on The Hurdle Rate.
It is my opinion that there is a misalignment of time horizons between a lot of investors who own the ASST common stock (probably MSTR as well).
Digital credit = high time preference
Bitcoin = medium time preference
Amplified Bitcoin = lowest time preference
If ASST hits the common to acquire Bitcoin while Bitcoin isn’t even 15% above the 200 week moving average to take advantage of the mNAV premium they’ve earned, so be it. Over the last year, this team has proven time and time again that they execute better than anyone in the space and, candidly, communicate with the retail community better than anyone in the space.
If you’re an investor in ASST & MSTR, you’re on the frontier of a new asset class and an idea so novel that it truly has the ability to change mankind for the better. My opinion again: being critical of what takes place in a single week’s capital market activities is the epitome of high time preference and retail thinking. The grading scale should be based on the outperformance of Bitcoin over a long time horizon.
When Bitcoin moves again, ASST will be the fastest horse. IPOing SATS this close to the 200 week moving average has enabled ASST to have an amplification moat that the majority of the people invested in these companies still don’t fully appreciate.
$ASST $MSTR $SATA $STRC
William Wallets retweeted
The funny thing about Bitcoin and Bitcoin derivatives is how much price drives the narrative.
Price goes down: Bitcoin is broken. You’re an idiot. The strategy is terrible.
Price goes up: Bitcoin is perfect. You’re a genius. The strategy is brilliant.
The trick is to zoom out, maintain a long time horizon, and avoid getting caught on the emotional roller coaster.
William Wallets retweeted
Believe it or not, Amplified Bitcoin trades like Amplified Bitcoin.
We’ve seen this for 10+ years with BitMEX and the Bitcoin futures market.
When Bitcoin is rising and demand for leverage increases, futures tend to trade at a premium and funding rates rise.
When Bitcoin is falling and demand for leverage declines, premiums compress, funding rates fall, and futures can even trade at a discount.
Unless you can perfectly predict short-term Bitcoin price movements, zoom out and take a long time horizon.
If you expect Bitcoin’s long-term CAGR to exceed your cost of capital, embrace the volatility.
I like the coin.
William Wallets retweeted
18 years ago today, Satoshi released the #Bitcoin whitepaper.
What a legend! 🙌
William Wallets retweeted
At Strive, our long term objective is exclusively tied to stock returns.
With $2.10B in preferred notional and $3.32B of Bitcoin, we have a leading amplification ratio of 63.4%.
This is while Bitcoin is trading at approximately a 14.9% premium to its 200-week moving average.
Over the last 10 years, Bitcoin has spent 2,986 of 3,652 days, 81.8% of the time, trading at a higher premium to its 200-week moving average than it is today.
We have deliberately constructed our balance sheet to capitalize on the distribution of Bitcoin outcomes we believe is most likely over the long term, with substantial amplification positioned to translate Bitcoin appreciation into common stock returns.
William Wallets retweeted
The Strive equity ecosystem traded $431M in volume today:
$ASST: $283M
$SATA: $73M
$SATS: $75M
In the first 10 minutes of trading, $ASST traded $41M in spot volume, while BTC was finding its footing.
To put that into perspective, $XXI, $ABTC, $NAKA, $SVIA, $DDC, $SLE combined traded ~$24M in volume across the entire day.
$MSTR traded $808M, and $IBIT $570M through the first 10 minutes.
Data pointing to BTC market shock absorption occurring in layer 2 derivatives of Bitcoin.
New month starts next week.
Daily dividends + SATS first record date next week.
Work to do ⚡️
Strive Tracking Day 158
$ASST is now ranked 1,393rd largest public US company by market cap.
Fell 55 companies today.
41x to top 100.
6x to top 500.
454th largest by dollar volume.
$270,000,000+ traded today
William Wallets retweeted
Sentiment for Bitcoin is so bad that people can't comprehend it going from $77,000 to $100,000 in under 2 months.
We have already seen such a move this year.
Bitcoin went from $63,000 to $86,000 between mid August and the end of September.
Things can change very quickly.
William Wallets retweeted
The craziest part of a $6.3 BILLION crypto exchange hack is watching people blame Bitcoin.
A centralized company failed to secure its infrastructure.
Bitcoin’s decentralized network continued operating exactly as designed.
The distinction is literally the entire point of Bitcoin.
