Founder & CEO @btrbetapp | ex-@Stripe, ex-@VillageCarey legislator | @bgsu alum (x2), @utoledo alum
Joined August 2010
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People may subscribe for insight, but they renew for utility.
Sports betting creators do not build durable subscription businesses by putting more picks behind a paywall. They build them by becoming useful in the bettor’s actual workflow.
That means helping members:
Compare lines.
Track bets.
Tail plays.
Join contests.
Review performance.
Talk with the community.
Come back even when there is no new “big pick” that day.
The trick is not to build a taller paywall.
The trick is to build a better room on the other side of it.
I wrote more about why recurring revenue requires recurring utility, and why the next wave of sports betting creators will look more like community operators than pick publishers: btrbet.app/blog/gamblers-gai…
Vocab word of the day: mawkish
lexorium.online/c/cmsvuriyi0…
Latin word of the day: exemplum
exemplum, exemplī (n.)
example, model, precedent
Likely derived from eximere, “to take out” or “select,” something singled out for imitation or illustration.
lexorium.online/c/cmsj3o7pn0…
Apropos of nothing, today’s vocab word is “contumacy”.
lexorium.online/c/cmsc24wqf0…
Zack Littell over 2.5 strikeouts at -142
He’s cleared this line in six of his last seven appearances and is averaging 4.0 Ks over his last five while working 5.1 innings per game.
With the line set at just 2.5, I’m backing him to find three strikeouts again.
Full writeup at app.btrbet.app/community/cms…
Marlins +1.5 at -112 on @PlayProphetX
I make Philadelphia the more likely winner, but not by much. The recent scoring profiles point toward a one-run game, with outcomes like 4-3 or 5-4 firmly in play.
Full writeup at app.btrbet.app/community/cms…
Biased take for sure, but the best use of AI in a product I’ve seen: analyzing all the in-app signals generated by a free user, then selecting the discount and offer copy most likely to convert them to a paid plan.
Super cool, @btrbetapp!
Being a Mets fan this season has mostly meant finding new ways to lower my expectations. Today, I’m trying to make that profitable:
Freddy Peralta under 5.5 strikeouts (-132)
He’s averaged 4.6 K over his last five starts, with a shrinking workload.
Full writeup and charts: app.btrbet.app/community/cmr…
Four WNBA player-points unders for today:
Azzi Fudd u14.5 (+108)
Dearica Hamby u15.5 (-121)
Paige Bueckers u22.5 (-110)
Rhyne Howard u18.5 (-115)
Four different cases for the under, from recent scoring trends to lines sitting above season-long production.
Full writeup and charts: app.btrbet.app/community/cmr…
Four WNBA player-points unders for Storm at Fever tonight:
Caitlin Clark u17.5 +100
Sophie Cunningham u8.5 -102
Dominique Malonga u17.5 -119
Lexie Hull u9.5 -154
Four players. Four different cases for the under.
Full writeup and explainer video at app.btrbet.app/community/cmr…
In the 3.75 hrs since I bet Cunningham u8.5 points at -102, the best price I can get has moved to +121 at @PlayProphetX.
I'm looking at -10.4% CLV if that ends up being the closing price 😬
See the live price for this market at app.btrbet.app/community/cmr…
In this video, I walk through how I’m using @btrbetapp to find MLB pitcher strikeout props, compare the market, and track whether the process is actually profitable.
Tonight’s two bets:
- Janson Junk **under 3.5 Ks** at +102
- Framber Valdez **under 4.5 Ks** at +135
Watch the video, then try the same workflow on tonight’s board. app.btrbet.app/community/cmr…
Two pitcher K props I’m looking at today:
Colin Rea u3.5 Ks
Walker Buehler o3.5 Ks
One is a fade of a pitcher trending below the number. The other is backing a pitcher whose recent K output has cleared it with room to spare.
Read my full writeup at app.btrbet.app/community/cmr…
The United States lost 3-2 to Türkiye in a game where the table had already been set.
Then Türkiye scored in the 98th minute, because apparently the market needed one more little twist.
So I pulled the current moneyline prices for the next United States World Cup game.
Best price I’m seeing right now: -155 at DraftKings.
The lesson, as ever:
The game is played on the field.
The bet is played in the market.
Shop this bet at app.btrbet.app/community/cmq…
Still batting 1000 recommending Bayesian stats + python as good tools to explore when people describe data problems.
