Uncovering secular trends before they’re consensus. Macro insight with timing precision. Advisor. Trader. Never married to a narrative.
Joined January 2011
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Tops are a process.
If you got caught buying new highs in the NDX last week, you were part of that process.
Good work.
xitter.gq/AMeshkati/status/21069…
Everything that can and will happen this coming week of trading is purely a setup for next week.
Next week is the hook for all of October.
Whether the break is higher or lower, the market is unlikely to let investors wait for earnings and the FOMC before making its move.
Earnings and the Fed will simply be an accelerant for whatever trend develops next week.
Tough week for investors but market breadth is great. And as long as market breadth is great then the markets are healthy and that means they just keep going up.
It's like those guys that say "at least you still have your health" to a guy that just lost his house.
An excerpt from the October 14th edition of Turning Points, with a follow up chart attached.
Follow up analysis, including what it will take for the market to form a significant low, coming in this weekend’s Turning Points.
Put call at 0.73.
Not sure if the masses don't care, are collectively high, or just plain dumb.
The answer to any decline seems to be...buy calls.
Market gods are summoning the Four Horsemen.
A certain set of requirements need to be met before the markets can make a formidable low.
Unfortunately, the market decided to move directly against that path this week.
Will be further going over the requirements in this weekend's Turning Points.
An excerpt from this past Sunday's note.
This was the last time the Memory FOMO Gauge triggered.
Check your charts.
See what the Nasdaq did in the weeks that followed.
This triggered today.
Assume it will go 10 for 10.
This is now 9 for 9 in accuracy.
Late buyers to the memory trade have called the short-term peak in the NDX with uncanny precision over the past several months, last Wednesday being the most recent example.
xitter.gq/AMeshkati/status/21043…
Took profits on our ORCL add before the close and further raised cash.
Now sitting at our largest cash allocation of the year.
Be like water.
Today was our first time adding any long positions since August.
Added two positions on the open this morning....one was $ORCL at 131.
xitter.gq/AMeshkati/status/21139…
Today was our first time adding any long positions since August.
Added two positions on the open this morning....one was $ORCL at 131.
xitter.gq/AMeshkati/status/21139…
Due to our bearish stance, other than the volatility hedge initiated some weeks ago, we haven't taken on any new long positions since August.
The wait is nearly over.
Soon it will be time to put our good sized cash position to work.
In this weekend's Turning Points, I will be detailing the 3 names we will be looking to buy when a near term low does arrive, whether this week or some weeks from now.
Time to get prepared.
New note coming tonight going over the setup into FOMC, earnings, and PCE for the rest of this week.
It's coming....
xitter.gq/AMeshkati/status/21078…
So many hardware names have been under distribution for months, just now beginning to move below their 200 day MA on heavy volume.
These are terminal patterns following parabolic runs.
At the same time, so many software names are seeing extraordinary accumulation.
The tides have shifted while everyone is looking the other way.
Given that growth names are our primary investment vehicle, avoiding this debacle as much as possible over the past few months has been a worthy effort.
What this level of selling means for the long term is difficult to say.
There are a lot of names that aren't coming back from this. Terminal patterns are everywhere.
There are other names that are beginning to present opportunity, while being under accumulation. Obvious rotation taking place to future leaders.
For the remainder of 2026, this remains a market that is best approached week by week, and at times, day by day.
Even better than the real thing. Crash is TMT momentum is now bigger that in 2000.
zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…
Due to our bearish stance, other than the volatility hedge initiated some weeks ago, we haven't taken on any new long positions since August.
The wait is nearly over.
Soon it will be time to put our good sized cash position to work.
In this weekend's Turning Points, I will be detailing the 3 names we will be looking to buy when a near term low does arrive, whether this week or some weeks from now.
Time to get prepared.
First week of October 2026 is the inverse of April 2025 when everyone was freaking out about tariffs and a collapse of the financial system as we know it.
In April 2025, the market used the start of Q2 and a new month to manipulate the bearish case to the max extent possible before reversing.
There were few voices of reason urging calm, telling investors that the markets would surge from there.
Similarly, running inverse to 2025, market used a new month and a new quarter at the start of October to inflict max pain by moving to new highs prior to reversing at what is likely an important inflection point for the remainder of the year.
The amount of effort exerted by the market is directly proportional to the intention at work.
Tonight we are seeing the last gasps of tariff terror just as the market is about to switch focus back to the economy, with earnings commanding the spotlight during the second half of this month.
Investor attention moving to anything but tariffs in the weeks to come will be enough to calm nerves considerably, especially as the economy and earnings remain buoyant.
Meanwhile, investors are running around tonight with their hair on fire, arms flailing, assuming this selling lasts through the summer.
The market was never going to make it as easy as putting in a low on the last day of Q1 with follow through to the upside after a reversal on "Liberation Day" to cement the bull case.
It was always going to be a dirty affair with numerous twists and turns along the way.
April ends strongly in the green for the major indices.
Look through the shenanigans.
It all started here, in the last week of September.
First week of October was just a classic start of new quarter/new month bait move to new highs for the many who thought Q4 would be easy sailing.
The actual bearish trigger took place at the end of September.