
Kazakh-Russian-Ukrainian Political Analyst. Diplomacy, Geopolitics I BRICS, Eurasia, Latin America I Russia-Global South I Dr.Phil from @Unileipzig
Berlin, Deutschland
Joined August 2013
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Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
I live in Brazil and have made ZERO election-related market recommendations.
Bolsonaro is an absolute idiot.
Any normal boss or business owner would find it utterly disgusting to mock a worker for losing a finger on the job in a factory.
Coming from a daddy’s boy who has never worked outside politics? Oh, my... 🤦♂️
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Brazil's Election:
The far-right is pushing this narrative while leaving out half the story. Check the timeline and the numbers and the whole thing falls apart:
October 25:
Earlier in the day, @FlavioBolsonaro (PL) bragged on social media about having 200,000+ volunteer poll watchers in electoral zones.
~1pm: @LulaOficial (PT) files 1 request to extend voting (0603389-27.2026.6.00.0000), plus 1 addendum around 3pm.
~3pm: @FlavioBolsonaro (PL) ALSO asks to extend voting, with 2 separate requests (0603394-49.2026.6.00.0000 and 0603393-64.2026.6.00.0000).
~4pm: @LulaOficial takes his request to the STF.
~5pm: TSE president hadn't ruled yet. Zanin notes that BOTH candidates asked for an extension and orders it only for polling stations still open.
~8pm: TSE president Nunes Marques, appointed by Bolsonaro himself, declares Lula the winner and states on the record that the extension did not affect the result or compromise the voting system.
After 8pm: the heads of the Chamber and the Senate, and international leaders, recognize the result.
Now the math. Only 0.027% of votes came in after 5pm: 34,424 out of 127,697,270 (excluding abroad). @LulaOficial won by ~4.4M. He grew ~10M from the 1st round, @FlavioBolsonaro ~4M. That +14M came from fewer blank/null votes, third-party voters and lower abstention.
34k late votes don't flip a 4.4M lead.
Sources: public TSE ballot box logs, official TSE results, TSE/STF filings (0603389-27.2026.6.00.0000, 0603394-49.2026.6.00.0000, 0603393-64.2026.6.00.0000).
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
I congratulate you, President @LulaOficial, on your well-deserved victory in the presidential election.
The Brazilian people have expressed their support for your policy of strengthening national sovereignty, enhancing Brazil’s standing as a major global power, advancing reform of the United Nations, and promoting a world order based on justice.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Lula is the first presidential candidate in Brazilian history to finish second in the first round and still win the presidency in the runoff.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
I’m so desperately opposed to a war with Russia that I keep pushing Ukraine further up the escalation ladder.
I provide them with intelligence and weapons to target not just military sites, but civilian infrastructure in Russia, Crimea, and Donbas too.
Naturally, I maintain a dignified silence whenever civilians are killed by Ukrainian forces or the Ukrainian army commits war crimes. Apparently, some civilian lives are more equal than others.
Meanwhile, my ambassador keeps poking the Russian bear with empty promises about Ukraine joining NATO. Because nothing says “de-escalation” quite like waving a red flag in front of a nuclear power.
But no, no, no — I absolutely do NOT want war. I’m merely steering Germany straight toward another one, despite most Germans having no appetite for it.
After all, peace is wonderful, but have you seen Rheinmetall’s profit margins?
Never again? Sure. Unless the shareholders need another record quarter.
----
Germany’s Chancellor Merz on Russia:
We are facing a massive threat in the east of our continent.
We see Russia trying to destabilize Germany every single day.
I do not want a return to the darkest periods in the history of our continent.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
#RadioMoskva
Is a Ukraine peace deal in the works?
Something important appears to have happened in Oslo yesterday. At a press conference following a meeting between leaders from Ukraine, US, Finland and Norway the tone of statements changed dramatically, and US envoy Steve Witkoff immediately left to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg today. Something is going on.
We do not yet know exactly what Washington has put on the table, but there were tantalising hints like Zelenskiy mentioning “security deal,” and clearly it was a productive meeting according to all the participants. Most important is that both Ukraine and the EU heads dialled their criticism of the Trump administration back after several days of lambasting him following last week’s diesel deal with Putin.
All the positive language from Kyiv and the US suggests that a package centred on American security guarantees may finally have broken the deadlock. Now Witkoff is now in St Petersburg to see whether Vladimir Putin will buy it.
Trump is desperate for a deal ahead of a trouncing in the midterm elections in a few weeks. Zelenskiy is desperate as he is unable to prevent the bombardment of Ukraine that Russia has already launched. He has run out of time to get his allies to help as the heating season has just started and not only does he not have enough interceptor missiles, since the Starlink satellite system was throttled not even Ukraine’s jet powered interceptor missiles work anymore.
The only person not in a rush is Putin. Sure, the Russian economy is hurting, but it is nowhere near crisis and has still has resources to continue for at least two more years, Russian oligarch-turned-dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky told IntelliNews this month.
Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. A US official described the discussions as "very productive and constructive", said Ukraine had brought forward “new proposals,” and claimed there had been "meaningful progress" towards a common US-Ukrainian-European position.
The mellow remarks come after a week of shouting where Zelenskiy said Trump had “betrayed" Ukraine and Trump said that Zelenskiy had to go and that he was a “dictator.”
The most important clue came from Zelenskiy himself: he said the package now contains security guarantees modelled on Nato's Article 5 — exactly the issue Kyiv has spent years trying to nail down.
"We discussed Nato, Article 5 and Article 5-like guarantees," Zelenskiy said after the meeting. "Different types of security guarantees are included in the document, which Steve will share with the Russians, and we will hear their feedback.”
He also thanked Washington for reiterating that the guarantees would be "reliable".
And this is not unlikely. Part of the 27-point peace plan (27PPP) that the Dynamic Envoy Duo thrashed out at the Moscow meeting on December 3 with Putin included a “Nato Article-5 like” security deal – the only genuine innovation that Trump administration has brought to the party – that Zelenskiy has suggested would be enough for him to consider giving territory away. Since then Kushner has said this month that giving up Donbas is the key that would unlock the deal.
That does not mean a peace deal has been done. Far from it. But it does look increasingly as though Washington has put a serious security offer on the table.
The big question is whether Putin will accept it. Witkoff arrived in St Petersburg on October 21, and the meeting is underway as I write. What happens in that room is suddenly far more important than most of the endless diplomatic meetings held over the last four years. After the Moscow meeting this looks like the next big opportunity to break the deadlock.
This article originally appeared in Editor’s Picks, a free daily email digest of bne IntelliNews’ best stories from the last 24 hours. Sign up for free here.
to989.infusionsoft.com/app/f…
bneeditor.substack.com/p/is-…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
NEW: European leaders may soon hold direct talks with Vladimir Putin and could offer him two paths to peace in Ukraine, according to a Financial Times column by Gideon Rachman.
The first would freeze the war on the current front line in exchange for a guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO.
The second would see Ukraine give up the rest of the Donbas but then join the alliance.
Rachman writes that European capitals increasingly reject leaving talks with Putin to Washington alone, citing frustration with Trump’s approach.
He adds that Europeans are much less confident Putin would accept either option.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
“On the other hand, the sadistic nature of this decision is, of course, shocking. I have a great deal of psychological work ahead of me to process and come to terms with my own feelings about this. After all, Latvia is a place I genuinely loved and considered home. And, naturally, I would like to be of service to Latvia. I pose no threat to this country.
I believe the threat to Latvia comes from those who alienate people like me, commit unlawful acts, engage in extrajudicial political repression, and harshly punish individuals for their honest views—for attempting an intellectually honest analysis of the political situation and the military conflict.”
My interview with @meduzaproject
meduza.io/feature/2026/10/13…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Diplomatic flurry in #Turkmenistan as it hosts the first real C6 (#CentralAsia and #Azerbaijan) summit, a CIS summit and a meeting of Caspian littoral states leaders, all taking place in the purpose-built Avaza resort on the Caspian
newscentralasia.net/2026/10/…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
I warmly congratulate Prime Minister @narendramodi on the remarkable milestone of 25 years as Head of Government.
Under his strong and wise leadership, India continues to advance its sustainable development, scientific and technological progress, while further strengthening its role on the global stage.
I highly value the close ties and strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and India. I am confident that through our joint efforts, we will elevate the Kazakh-Indian partnership to new heights.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Kazakhstan is weighing a second major oil export route as it looks to diversify shipments, reduce reliance on existing corridors, and strengthen the resilience of its energy exports. Read more from @RobertMCutler
timesca.com/kazakhstan-weigh…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Seewege werden unsicherer, Landrouten wichtiger. #Kasachstan könnte zum strategischen Knotenpunkt zwischen #Europa und #Asien werden.
@AVsitenko im IPG-Journal.
ipg-journal.de/regionen/asie…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Kazakh President Tokayev on Putin:
I have very good relations with President Putin. I consider him, one might say, an outstanding statesman.
And today I said with considerable conviction that President Putin, as a statesman and as the leader of Russia, is the most acceptable political figure — strange as this may sound to you — for Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, in my view, and for Europe and for the whole world.
I know him very well, and he possesses the qualities most necessary for the leader of a large state with a complicated history and its own understanding of the strategic goals facing that country.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Kazakh President Tokayev on Russia-Ukraine:
Whatever happens on the territory of Ukraine, we will always remember that both Russia and Ukraine are our good friends.
As far as Russia is concerned, we must not forget that Kazakhstan and Russia share a common border of 7,597 kilometers — the longest border in the world. Is that not a factor in developing friendly relations with this country?
There are 2.7 million citizens of Russian ethnicity living in Kazakhstan. The Orthodox Church and Orthodox Christianity are represented on a significant scale in our country, and we treat them with great respect.
All these circumstances must be taken into account. You cannot act rashly.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Armchair speculations that Putin has supposedly lost Ukraine for Russia forever ignore the basic facts outlined in this article.
Also, an EU that is politically disintegrating, becoming more authoritarian and more right-wing, and struggling with growing economic problems, is losing the power of attraction it once had. It isn't even interested in Ukraine's proper integration to begin with. And Ukraine will need external help for many decades after the war ends.
theamericanconservative.com/…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Africa still has no permanent seat on the Security Council.
A 21st century Security Council without permanent African representation is unjust & indefensible.
We must reform the Council so that it reflects today’s world with the legitimacy and effectiveness that today’s challenges demand.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
A remarkable para in an otherwise predictable article by Zaluzhny:
“And above all, this is a war that has surrendered itself to marketers and profiteers—people who, driven by a lack of understanding and strategy, merely stoke the flames of conflict in pursuit of quick profits, all while increasingly flaunting the rapid pace of technological progress.”
Чому знову закони війни поступаються прогнозам, а стратегія – маркетингу, - Залужний espreso.tv/poglyad-chomu-zno…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
China, Russia back "aspirations of Brazil, India to play a greater role in the UN, including Security Council"
BRICS joint statement
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Kazakhstan is looking beyond Baikonur. At Space Days, Astana outlined plans for a nine-satellite Earth-observation constellation by 2030 and domestic satellite production as it seeks greater control over its space sector.
timesca.com/space-days-kazak…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Breaking: Major diplomatic breakthrough at the BRICS summit. Joint statement to be issued today. India succeeded in forging consensus
after negotiations that continued until 4 am. The agreement is significant given the deep differences among members, especially Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, amid ongoing conflicts and tensions in West Asia. @IGR_Media




















