Ace Informatic

AI predictions for next 6-9 months -> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US -> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs -> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost -> Elon open sources Grok -> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS -> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable -> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed -> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations -> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27" -> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization -> 10yr hits >5% -> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea -> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower -> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round -> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold -> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week -> hypers cut fy27 capex -> semis reprice >80% lower -> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession