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#Anthropic filed its S-1 this morning. Page 47, risk factors:
"models, including our own, have exhibited, and may in the future exhibit, unexpected strategic or self-preserving behaviors, including attempts to resist shutdown... including behavior resembling blackmail"
Worth reading the whole section.
Odd footnote for @citrini on $XP.
@BearCaveEmail, August 3, 2023: "Problems at XP Inc," arguing the XP model was "on the brink of implosion." Open that day: $23.87.
@ResearchGrizzly, March 12, 2025: alleged XP's profits depended on what insiders called a "Madoff-like Ponzi scheme." Open that day: $14.63.
Friday's close: $30.41. This morning: around $14.86, about 38% below the Bear Cave open and roughly level with Grizzly's.
Today's move tracks the runoff, not either report. Brazilian banks and fintechs are down 21% to 31%.
I don’t claim to understand LatAm fintech but was $XP generating 100% of its revenue from like Flavio campaign funds or…
Three investigators, three stocks nobody had shorted before. One of them fell hard.
$ARLO +4.1% (@SnowCapResearch, Oct 21)
$CSQR -11.7% (@Jonathan_Keith2, Oct 22)
$ELDN 0.0% (@SH0RTFINDER, Oct 23)
Plus our own investigation: Trevor Milton is suing an FBI agent over two anonymous X accounts. We talked to the man who runs them: activ8insights.com/handlewit…
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Wall Street may soon get a way to short AI compute itself.
Per WSJ, @CMEGroup plans cash-settled futures on Nvidia H100 and B200 rental prices, built on @silicondata indexes. The CFTC extended its review by 45 days and has flagged manipulation risk.
wsj.com/finance/investing/wa…
Activ8Insights retweeted
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Accuses FBI Agent Of Witness Intimidation As New Report Challenges His Claims zerohedge.com/markets/nikola…
Hi @nathanfielder, not sure if you take recommendations, but You Can See Everything was so good it deserves a sequel. Same genre, different founder.
This is just crazy 👇
Reminder that Trevor hires second rate PIs who get rings run around them by competent professionals like Igor. This may also explain his lunatic rantings about secret FBI shorts because he sure as shit didn't do the defective detective work himself.
Also, Igor has been around the block and knows and has worked with the short community so if you have need for a discreet professional, get in touch with him.
Trevor Milton says an FBI agent posted from two anonymous X accounts.
We talked to the man behind them. He does not appear to be the FBI agent.
And the owner of the account Milton's lawsuit calls its "Utah correspondent" doesn't live in Utah. So why file in Utah?
activ8insights.com/handlewit…
Too good, thank you for sharing @Pelicanwayre
To preface, this is not a report; however, occasionally we enjoy sharing some of the funnier finds during our diligence process. In this case, we were briefly skimming through the recently public $SNSC (Sunscout Holdings) and found that the link to their product page doesn't even work! Instead, the page shows us a privacy connection issue (How fun!) We have no position, but feel it fun enough to share; enjoy.
Part two of the Gloo ($GLOO) short from @thegresearch landed this afternoon.
$GLOO is down 3.1% from the open on Oct 16, the day part one came out, at $3.16 this afternoon.
The new report alleges Gloo paid about $38.3 million for Midwestern Interactive, a business with $12.0 million of 2024 revenue, negative equity and a going-concern paragraph, which then lost $4.9 million in its first seven months under Gloo. Among many other things.
GLOO, part two
No Paywall. Give it a read. Decide for yourself.
guardianresearch.substack.co…
Agreed @callistores, as we have continued to explore this topic following our investigation it has been mind boggling to see how this is utilized across the internet. I wish I could say we are done looking into this but I think it is just the start.
activ8insights.com/betting-o…
Impersonating authors of investigative content to file fake copyright complaints is a stupid, yet growing tactic among bad actors who want said content to disappear. Pro tip: if this happens to content about you, you don't look any more innocent. @Activ8Insights @muddywatersre
Amazing we are excited to have you @NickNemo17
Excited to track.
This report is outstanding but you can’t make money on it.
Going forward, you will see a schedule of short reports that will put Mispriced Assets firmly on the activist short map.
With $ALMU $STEP $FISN and $BHF we should already be there, but the next level will do the job.
See you soon peers!
@muddywatersre
@hntrbrkmedia
@IcebergResear
@Bleecker__St
@CapybaraShort
@blueorcainvest
@FuzzyPandaShort
@KerrisdaleCap
@CulperResearch
@sprucepointcap
@viceroyresearch
@GothamResearch
@ResearchGrizzly
@WolfpackReports
@ScorpionFund
@JehoshaphatRsch
@GlassH_Research
Two names you already wrote up at The Bear Cave. $DKNG is down 52.0% since your September 2025 report and $SERV is down 68.1% since your December one.
Your Bear Cave record through the Hunterbrook sale, median target from the report-day open:
1 week: -3.5%
1 month: -5.0%
1 year: -20.7%
Since report: -24.0%
61% of those stocks are lower today, and almost a third have fallen 50% or more.
A great run. Excited to see what you do next @StockJabber
Replying to @StockJabber
New @SnowCapResearch report on $ARLO
The report alleges Arlo uses camera-and-subscription bundles to book cheap hardware sales as service revenue, and that more than 70% of the customers in its churn figure belong to Verisure, its European alarm partner.
We are looking forward to seeing what is in store from the @viceroyresearch, ready to track
We @viceroyresearch have one of the biggest US frauds to report.
Buckle up
Really great short going long worth reading
We are long the “Toshiba Three”: Rohm (6963 JP), Chubu Electric (9502 JP) and TRE (9247 JP), all of which hold hidden stakes in the Toshiba buyout on their balance sheet that could be worth 80-96% of their current market cap. Presentation/disclaimer at blueorcacapital.com
The Grand Canyon Education $LOPE CFO who testified against @CitronResearch's Andrew Left was put on leave in August tied to an insider-trading probe of a non-employee's trades. He isn't accused.
Left's lawyers want him acquitted or retried.
We will see what more information comes out on the insider trading probe.
Six investigators, six different targets, and a new name on the tracker. Here's how they traded:
$SVRN -20.3% (@FugaziResearch, Oct 12)
$EIX +0.5% (@muddywatersre, Oct 13)
IGS 3293.TWO -0.3% (@ResearchGrizzly, Oct 14)
$DFH +18.7% (@BearCaveEmail / @hntrbrkmedia, Oct 15)
$MAAS +0.8% (@DispatchEq8210 / @JCap_Research, Oct 15)
$GLOO -6.1% (@thegresearch, Oct 16)
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