Apollo

SpaceX lists tomorrow. Forget the price target debates, the only thing that matters for the next 60 days is what’s on their calendar. - JUNE 12. Listing day. Only ~4% of the company floats. Whatever prints tomorrow, understand it's a price discovered by the thinnest sliver of supply meeting maximum sentiment. That's an auction for a scarce ticket. - JULY 7. Fifteen trading days in, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100. Vanguard, the index complex, they don't get an opinion. They are CONTRACTUALLY required to buy, estimates running $8-18B, into a float sitting at its absolute minimum because insiders still can't sell. Forced buyers, fixed date, no supply. Everyone can see it coming, which means it gets front run, which is the point. - LATE JULY. First earnings as a public company and right behind it, 20% of restricted shares unlock. if the stock is 30% above IPO price, an ADDITIONAL 10% unlocks. The supply release is literally contingent on the squeeze working. So it’ll be a tiny float sets a hot price —> index funds are forced to buy the top of it—> insiders unlock into the strength they engineered. It's a liquidity grab imho. None of this says SpaceX is a bad business, it might be the asset of the decade. It says the first sixty days of trading have almost nothing to do with the business. Trade the calendar or don't trade it at all…