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⚖️ 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗽𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲 Here are the arguments that I expect the PL legal team will make for why the Independent Commission must apply the most severe punishments possible. 1) 𝙋𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙙𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙜𝙖𝙩𝙚 The typical points deduction baseline for a regular PSR breach is 6 points for the breach and a further point for every £5m over the limit. These are then varied for mitigating and aggravating circumstances. By my calculations, Man City breached PSR by at least £120-140m each year over 2015/16-2017/18. In aggregate, that would mean a baseline of 96 points deducted. But this was not a regular PSR breach either. It was historic, hidden, the platform for all success and future growth and what’s more, they then sought to evade / fight justice for years. So the points deduction should probably be larger than 96. The simple reality is they must go down. Anything less would be egregious (when viewed alongside precedent) and subject to not only appeal, but almost certainly Section X arbitration and judidical review on the basis it was a perverse outcome. 2) 𝙃𝙪𝙜𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨, 𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙈𝙖𝙣 𝘾𝙞𝙩𝙮’𝙨 𝙛𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 Given precedent of other fines applied by Commissions, the scale of the offences, and the length of time taken from discovery to sanction (mostly due to Man City’s non-cooperation), Man City can expect the largest ever fine in football history. I will do a more detailed thread on this soon, but I suspect a fine of up to £100m (justified on the basis of damage to the PL brand) and compensation claims to the 4 clubs of more than £1bn in total. Normally, fines and compensation claims are not counted when assessing FFP / PSR because to include them would be considered “double punishment”. However, excluding them might be considered unfair in this specific case. Man City smuggled in more than £800m of equity, disguised as sponsor income. In today’s prices, that would be worth billions. They have built an empire on the cheating and still benefit from it to this day. Their valuable squad (which they can sell to raise funds) exists because of it. It’s why their “net spend” isn’t that high. What’s more, valuable long-term commercial deals only exist because of it too. The sanctions must also “make good” the damage that Man City cause but they must also mitigate for any undue sporting advantage they have gained. As such, that massive spending power that they gained through cheating must be restricted to compensate. Including the fines or compensation would not achieve this In the PL now that the rules are SCR-based rather than PSR-based. As such, I suspect the Panel will be asked to achieve this by applying a mark-down to their SCR allowance. Uefa may be asked to include the fines and comp claims in any assessment of their Football Earnings (I doubt they’ll comply). 3) 𝙏𝙞𝙩𝙡𝙚 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 Every single major player acquisition from the summer of 2011 onwards can be tied to the illicit funds. Directly or indirectly. These players were absolutely critical to their ill-gotten success. It is impossible to argue that they would have won their titles without them. As such, there is a strong argument for why titles should be stripped. It is also a needed outcome for the purposes of deterrent against future cheating by other parties. And even through they only breaached PSR from 2015/16 onwards (they breached Uefa FFP two years rules earlier), they started getting the benefit of their scheme much earlier than that. Had they not devised it, with the intention to defraud the league, then they likely would not have spent nearly as much as they did on players in Summer 2011 onwards. So there is an argument that everything they won from 2011/12 onwards is tainted (i.e., all of it). That is the argument I would make. All of it must be stripped. The counter-argument is that only titles won from the first PSR breach (in 2015/16) should be stripped by suggesting that sporting advantage did not apply until that year. I feel this argument is weaker but this is subjective. The Panel could go either way. 4) 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙪𝙡𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 The cheating was on a massive scale. But what’s worse is how it was undertaken. It required a hidden criminal conspiracy on an enormous scale. What’s even worse is when it was discovered, the owner and club execs did everything they could to deny justice. They refused to comply with the investigation, dragging it out for years. They supplied false documentation and committed perjury at CAS, as well as having eminent business leaders do the same. They demonstrated a total disregard for the rules and the league’s integrity. They demonstrated a clear belief that they are above any and all rules. The rule breaches were only discoverable due to an email hack that will likely never be possible again (all malign actors will be more careful now). And they have so much power to falsify records, silence whilstblowers and force individuals to lie. They are an existential threat to the league. You simply cannot allow individuals like that to remain in a competition if you want it to maintain integrity. They pose too great a threat. The Panel cannot expel the club directly but it can recommend that the clubs vote to do so. But I suspect no-one will want to destroy the club. That is unfair to many employees and fans. They would rather just excise the ownership instead. As such, the Panel should recommend that the club be expelled if it is not sold to completely unassociated parties within a year, with a sale likely undertaken on a competitive basis and managed by an independent third party (similar to Chelsea’s).