$CIFR 👀
I would love to. The short-term market is disconnected from how well positioned we are.
@bitcoinbutcher1 lets connect to find a time
Heading into November I think the selloff in $NBIS, $CRWV and $IREN is getting a bit extreme when $NVDA B300 rental prices are up 52% since May and even older H100s are getting more expensive to rent.
Meanwhile AI token prices have fallen more than half from their peak which tells you a lot about where real pricing power sits in AI economy.
And while market worries about financing IREN just secured $363M against contracted GPUs and Nebius expects over $9B in customer prepayments which shows capital is still available for operators with real demand.
Thank you @danroberts0101 and the $IREN team for not selling your future MW ⚡️ for lower rates like many other companies did! 🫡
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
CS Investor retweeted
Wow.
@DivesTech says the AI buildout is only just beginning.
Listen to the Unusual Bets podcast below.
Please read if you're invested in AI infrastructure stocks
One of the biggest disconnects I see among investors in this space is how many are bullish on the right themes but express that bullishness in ways that almost guarantee they'll struggle to capture the opportunity. You're investing in industries that could fundamentally reshape how the world operates over the next 10, 20, or 30 years. Yet you're expressing that conviction through excessive leverage, short-dated options, or position sizes that make a +50% drawdown psychologically or financially unbearable. You can be entirely right about where an industry is headed and still lose a tremendous amount of money because you were poorly positioned.
So it brings me to something else I've never quite understood....this obsession with arbitrary investment horizons. I often hear people say they're investing in something for the "next 2-3 years." Why? Unless you have a specific liquidity requirement, why impose an expiration date on an investment thesis that could take years or a decade to fully materialize?
Imagine identifying Amazon, Microsoft, or Google early in their development, only to sell because your predetermined investment horizon had expired. Some of the greatest wealth creation in public markets came from investors who recognized a structural transformation, owned the right businesses, and allowed those businesses to compound over time.
Consider what's happening across AI, energy, compute, and digital infrastructure. We're witnessing an enormous industrial buildout that will likely unfold over many years. Entire industries are being created, existing infrastructure is being reconfigured, and capital is being deployed on a scale that will take years to translate into mature business models and sustainable cash flows.
There will be periods of extraordinary optimism, followed by equally uncomfortable periods of skepticism. Valuations will compress, companies will disappoint, financing conditions will change, some businesses won't survive, some probably get acquired, etc...That is the nature of investing in an emerging industry.
The objective isn't to blindly hold everything forever. It's to identify businesses capable of creating durable value and give that value creation sufficient time to play out. But for some odd reason so many retail investors make the mistake and approach a potentially generational investment opportunity with the mindset of a PM who needs to justify performance every quarter. Stop being so preoccupied with maximizing returns over the next few months or year that you're sacrificing the opportunity to compound wealth over the next decade.
Nothing wrong w/trading, taking profits, or adjusting exposure as circumstances change. But, in reality you will likely underperform having a genuinely long-term investment mindset imo. Recognizing the opportunity is only half the equation. The other half is positioning yourself financially and psychologically to participate in it long enough for you to see the result of the seeds you're planting now. Being early, or even being right, means very little if you can't stay invested long enough to benefit.
@cantonmeow @mikealfred @CrypticTrades_ @lourenco_vs @Chardonnay_OG @Fibonacci_TA @acethebulllly @XCapitalMgmt
CS Investor retweeted
Time for an important update on $CIFR, because I believe we could be approaching a MAJOR BOTTOM.
Our Cryptic Bottom Index is at its highest level since April 2025, when $CIFR formed its macro bottom below $2 before rallying more than 1,500%.
What's interesting is that the price is now retesting a major HTF Support range, the same region that marked the macro top in December 2024.
I believe this could become a great risk-to-reward opportunity for accumulation before a broader reversal.
But the fundamentals are just as interesting.
Similar to $IREN, I believe $CIFR is better positioned than many other neocloud companies because of its business model and financing structure.
Unlike companies spending billions purchasing GPUs, Cipher focuses on developing data centers and leasing them through long-term agreements with customers like AWS and Fluidstack.
Google also backs approximately $1.73 billion of Fluidstack's lease obligations, providing additional security.
This allows Cipher to finance much of its expansion through project-level debt supported by contracted revenue.
The company has already secured substantial financing, including $850 million in zero-interest convertible notes maturing in 2032.
More importantly, Cipher has approximately $793 million in contracted annual net operating income from three major leases.
And we're approaching a particularly important transition.
Black Pearl has already started generating rental income, while Barber Lake is expected to begin delivering its first data halls between Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
This is where $CIFR could begin transitioning from spending heavily on infrastructure to generating substantial contracted cash flow.
The next major catalyst is the November 2 Q3 business update, where I'll be watching for progress on Barber Lake, Black Pearl and potential new leasing agreements.
There are still risks, particularly construction delays, potential cost overruns and dilution from convertible financing.
However, the combination of strong bottoming signals, major HTF Support and improving cash flow visibility makes $CIFR a great risk-reward setup and buying opportunity.
For now, though, I still want to see the price stabilize and hold support before considering the bottom is in.
Sniped some $CIFR shares at $7.46 (previous 52-week low). Will punish market maker by adding everytime it dips! 😜 #THISISHOWYOUWIN
I'll buy this seemingly endless dip every day. This is how you win! $IREN $CIFR $WULF $BTDR $ASST $BMNR
Five years from now young investors will look back at this market and realize what an extraordinary opportunity fear created. And that opportunity could get even bigger in the days and weeks ahead. Nothing creates greater price misallocations than fear and greed. We’re living through one of those moments right now. And with fear creating opportunities in some of the world’s strongest businesses there’s little reason to take on the added risk of speculative companies.
CS Investor retweeted
Fed is walking back from its “ultra hawkish” stsnce from Sept
- bond markets fell into turmoil after 9/15 FOMC
- corporate bond issuance collapsed
- financial stability unraveled
PS: one could argue that raising rates is now adding to inflation via:
- extra interest income = demand inflation
- restricting housing supply = supply shock
CS Investor retweeted
I believe it was last Friday when I went on the Morning Bear Show on X and said:
“You can’t have a bubble when everyone thinks it’s a bubble.” 😅
Understand human psychology. It will definitely help you understand the markets.
As I said then, let’s revisit this conversation six months to a year from now…
A lot of these AI co-location/data center companies aren’t down because the long-term opportunity suddenly disappeared. They’re getting crushed because of macro uncertainty and financing fears.
And sentiment can change VERY quickly.
Literally one tweet can change the market. ✅
While others have been selling, panicking, and freaking out, I’ve been sleeping like a baby and accumulating more and more of what I believe are the best names. 🙏
When you truly understand the long-term trajectory and fundamentals of a business, macro events like these can create incredible opportunities you otherwise wouldn’t get.
And I just remembered one of the most important rules of investing:
You can’t be a bitch and get rich. 😂
