CS Investor retweeted
Wow.
@DivesTech says the AI buildout is only just beginning.
Listen to the Unusual Bets podcast below.
CS Investor retweeted
Time for an important update on $CIFR, because I believe we could be approaching a MAJOR BOTTOM.
Our Cryptic Bottom Index is at its highest level since April 2025, when $CIFR formed its macro bottom below $2 before rallying more than 1,500%.
What's interesting is that the price is now retesting a major HTF Support range, the same region that marked the macro top in December 2024.
I believe this could become a great risk-to-reward opportunity for accumulation before a broader reversal.
But the fundamentals are just as interesting.
Similar to $IREN, I believe $CIFR is better positioned than many other neocloud companies because of its business model and financing structure.
Unlike companies spending billions purchasing GPUs, Cipher focuses on developing data centers and leasing them through long-term agreements with customers like AWS and Fluidstack.
Google also backs approximately $1.73 billion of Fluidstack's lease obligations, providing additional security.
This allows Cipher to finance much of its expansion through project-level debt supported by contracted revenue.
The company has already secured substantial financing, including $850 million in zero-interest convertible notes maturing in 2032.
More importantly, Cipher has approximately $793 million in contracted annual net operating income from three major leases.
And we're approaching a particularly important transition.
Black Pearl has already started generating rental income, while Barber Lake is expected to begin delivering its first data halls between Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
This is where $CIFR could begin transitioning from spending heavily on infrastructure to generating substantial contracted cash flow.
The next major catalyst is the November 2 Q3 business update, where I'll be watching for progress on Barber Lake, Black Pearl and potential new leasing agreements.
There are still risks, particularly construction delays, potential cost overruns and dilution from convertible financing.
However, the combination of strong bottoming signals, major HTF Support and improving cash flow visibility makes $CIFR a great risk-reward setup and buying opportunity.
For now, though, I still want to see the price stabilize and hold support before considering the bottom is in.
CS Investor retweeted
Fed is walking back from its “ultra hawkish” stsnce from Sept
- bond markets fell into turmoil after 9/15 FOMC
- corporate bond issuance collapsed
- financial stability unraveled
PS: one could argue that raising rates is now adding to inflation via:
- extra interest income = demand inflation
- restricting housing supply = supply shock
CS Investor retweeted
I believe it was last Friday when I went on the Morning Bear Show on X and said:
“You can’t have a bubble when everyone thinks it’s a bubble.” 😅
Understand human psychology. It will definitely help you understand the markets.
As I said then, let’s revisit this conversation six months to a year from now…
A lot of these AI co-location/data center companies aren’t down because the long-term opportunity suddenly disappeared. They’re getting crushed because of macro uncertainty and financing fears.
And sentiment can change VERY quickly.
Literally one tweet can change the market. ✅
While others have been selling, panicking, and freaking out, I’ve been sleeping like a baby and accumulating more and more of what I believe are the best names. 🙏
When you truly understand the long-term trajectory and fundamentals of a business, macro events like these can create incredible opportunities you otherwise wouldn’t get.
And I just remembered one of the most important rules of investing:
You can’t be a bitch and get rich. 😂
CS Investor retweeted
@elonmusk may be right that we'll see unfinished data centers. But not all developers operate the same way.
$WULF follows a disciplined approach:
1. Identify sites with demonstrated customer interest.
2. Secure power from investment grade utilities.
3. Lock down specs, construction costs and schedules through GMP EPC contracts.
4. Secure long-term customer commitments backed by investment grade credit.
5. Arrange financing before committing to major construction.
We may move dirt early, but we don't build on spec.
I suspect we'll see projects stall because of inadequate capital, weak counterparties, execution misses, or regulatory hurdles. For experienced infrastructure developers with strong balance sheets, that creates opportunity.
What others call stranded assets, we may call a development pipeline. @PSInvestor @GavinSBaker
CS Investor retweeted
Really enjoyed this one. Thanks for having me Anthony! 🙏
Is Bitcoin heading to $100,000 or crashing to $10,000, and are we witnessing the beginning of an AI bubble or just another buying opportunity? This week on All Things Markets (@AllThingsMkts), @mikealfred (subbing in for the great @novogratz ) joins me to break down Bitcoin's future, the staggering cost of the AI boom, and why he's willing to bet $1 million that the Bitcoin bears are dead wrong. Presented by @SALTConference
Watch/Listen on X, YouTube, and Spotify.
Timestamps
0:00 SPECIAL GUEST: Mike Alfred
1:32 Why are AI stocks falling?
3:58 Are we in an AI bubble?
5:12 Anthropic's IPO and the future of AI investing
7:53 Could America's debt crisis trigger civil unrest similar to France?
10:52 Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX and the concentration of power
14:13 Bitcoin to $5,000? Why the bears are wrong
17:46 Bullish or Bearish
21:06 What made you smile this week?
CS Investor retweeted
Someone told me this morning that the business model for co-location companies is broken.
That genuinely made me laugh.
If anything, the economics keep getting better.
Why?
Because there simply isn’t enough power available for AI infrastructure right now. We are massively short power, and any good analyst following this space knows it.
So why are these stocks down so much?
Simple. They’re all being traded in the same basket.
That won’t last forever.
Eventually, the real operators will separate themselves from the pack. That’s how every new industry evolves.
Wall Street isn’t questioning whether these companies can sign contracts. Everyone is going to sign contracts. There’s too much demand chasing too little available power.
The real question is:
Who can actually build the data center on time, on budget, energize it, and start collecting rent?
That’s what the Street wants to see.
Who are the players and who are the fakers?
Contracts are one thing. Execution is another.
Once the revenue starts hitting the income statement, cash starts flowing, and investors can see the economics in the actual numbers, the conversation changes completely.
For some companies that signed contracts 18 to 24 months ago, I expect that inflection to start becoming visible by the end of Q1 next year.
That’s when we should begin seeing separation.
Until then, enjoy the process.
Don’t overcomplicate it.
Power. Contracts. Construction. Energization. Revenue. Separation.
This isn’t rocket science.
CS Investor retweeted
JUST IN: JPMorgan expands crypto deposit token JPM Coin to Ethereum, allowing institutional clients to transfer money 24/7.
CS Investor retweeted
$IREN: H2 Final Update from IR to Large Share Holder
Today, a group of very large shareholders held a call with IREN’s investor relations to get to the bottom of the H2 rumors.
1. H1 will be billing continuously from August 13th onwards. H1 was delivered according to original contract and specs. Any changes made will not interrupt billing.
2. H2 will be delivered in weeks.
3. H3-H4 will be delivered by late December 2026.
From what I can see, this more or less calms the rumors around H2. H1 revenue will be steady and strong, up ton45 day delay from roughly mid Oct for H2, and H3 minimal delays and H4 by late December. H1-4 all will be handed over to MSFT in 2026.
I was not part of call as these very large holders are mid 8 digits, 9 digits, and mid 9 digits measured in dollar value of IREN shares but I do talk to some of them.
$IREN: H2 Root Cause Analysis Update
I got more information tonight confirming that the issue stems from either MSFT AI model research team not communicating workload requirements to MSFT HPC systems team or that MSFT HPC team incorrectly translated those workload requirements to networking requirements.
MSFT HPC systems team communicates the requirements to IREN and defines the acceptance tests. The miss was both in specs provided to IREN and acceptance test for H1. This is not an error discovered while bringing up the network core to combine H1 and H2.
Yes if IREN had a principal networking engineer with deep knowledge of AI workload requirements, they could have prevented this but it's MSFT's responsibility to give the the full requirements as they own the model and platform layers.
Expectation is that H1 continues billing and new specs are implemented as maintenance over a 4 months. For H2, this is a design change that IREN has to respond to which will incur a 45 day delay. H3 is not most cabled at all so will not be delayed as much and be delivered at the same time as H4. H4, not cabled at all, will incur no delay and be delivered in Dec. H1-4 will all be billing exiting 2026.
For those wondering why cabling can result in a 45 delay and worrying that a 45 day must mean structural changes in liquid cooling or power distribution, you can watch this youtube video to understand how time consuming cabling can be. Credits to @pietrovl on good video pointing out how complex cabling can be. youtube.com/watch?v=_mw0cu1h…. Most likely, IREN is still using MPO since EBO came out just this July and hard to supply chain.
CS Investor retweeted
🚨Tom Lee says crypto, chip stocks and AI cloud companies are “a coiled spring” if the fundamentals hold.
The Fundstrat co-founder says they have all “pulled back to support levels,” and his strategist Mark Newton thinks markets could bottom “today or on Monday.”
Lee says when fundamentals hold and markets get fearful, “it’s actually a pretty good risk-reward setup.”
What’s your take?
CS Investor retweeted
$ASST could increase it's Bitcoin holdings by 500% this year. 👀 🤯🤑
People are sleeping on this s***.
I hope you're not one of them.
Strive announces upsized IPO of $SATS to $700M notional, priced at $90 per share.
We'll discuss the details in depth on the next @HurdleRatePod, which will be released when the IPO settles next Tuesday.
CS Investor retweeted
🚨 @MorganStanley reiterates @TeraWulfInc as "severely mispriced": Overweight, $65 base-case target vs. $11.54 close on Oct 14 🚨
⚡ Bear case $17.50 (existing contracts only, 12% discount rate), bull case $104.50
⚡ Signed contracts should generate ~$1.5B in annual NOI once complete
⚡ 102 MW energized, with 168 MW coming in Q4 2026, 168 MW in Q1 2027 and 401 MW at Hawesville in 2H 2027 to 1H 2028
⚡ Build costs are under $10/W vs. $11.50 to $14 for peers, with ~$3.0B in cash as of June 30
⚡ Catalysts: a Hawesville credit backstop, Muskie leases, grid timing and a possible Europe project
Morgan Stanley says it is "one of the few" companies that can provide "time to power."
$WULF
CS Investor retweeted
A brutal few days across the AI infrastructure sector, and $WULF has been no exception.
Financing costs, leverage, capital needs and returns on AI investment are all under scrutiny.
We are not sitting on the sidelines.
Yesterday, @MorganStanley hosted us in NYC for a full day with >30 investors, spanning long-only funds, global hedge funds, multi-strategy managers and credit investors. It was one of the most valuable days I've spent with investors.
Tough questions. Candid conversations. Here's what stood out...
CS Investor retweeted
DAN IVES CALLS AI STOCK SELLOFF A CLEAR BUYING OPPORTUNITY
Dan Ives says the sharp declines in CoreWeave ($CRWV ), IREN ($IREN ) and Nebius ($NBIS ) represent buying opportunities rather than warning signs.
Despite rising borrowing costs, Ives argues AI computing demand remains strong, with chip demand reportedly exceeding available supply by 13 to 1.
He expects 800–1,000 data centers to be built in the coming years.
His key message: Higher interest rates make AI infrastructure more expensive to finance, but do not necessarily weaken demand.
CS Investor retweeted
The sense I get from reading big tech Q2 earnings call transcripts is the demand for compute is infinite and the supply is extremely constrained
The only company on the planet that can literally print liquid cooled data centers is $IREN