#1 AI forecaster on Manifold Markets (and #2 across all categories) https://xitter.cf/t.co/glexRhhFiK I want everything to make sense

Joined July 2024
hpmor to a prompt
John Malone is predicting an $8-10B deal between Skydance and SpaceX. Elon has repeatedly said full generative movies and series are the goal for Grok Imagine. A content/output deal could give him training data and rights access to major franchises now under Skydance, including Star Trek, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones and Harry Potter. A fully legal Grok generated final season of GoT, or a Hogwarts tv series with the inclusion of an extremely popular female Slytherin are drawing closer to reality.
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idk guys this one looks pretty good
Fable 5.5 is a monster on VoxelBench here's how it did on 1 of our prompts:
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Replying to @RatOrthodox
Neural networks are clean if you peered into the structure of Adam Kadmon
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we got math 2.0 before GTA VI
The math community deserves its own AI system. Introducing Open Math OS: the infrastructure for Math 2.0. Open models and AI agents. 24/7 cloud compute with 100+ tools. The community controls its data. Compute is free for approved teams. Apply now: openmathmodel.org/
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Bayesian retweeted
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
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Anthropic RSP slides circa mid 2023 Faith for the machine god
Anthropic released their 2021 research roadmap earlier this year (because of copyright litigation); I think some people might find it interesting: i.sm4.ca/concise-research-ro…
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DIRTY LOOPER ALERT 🚨 Gemini 4 Argon
Gemini 4 Argon is also a dirty looping model
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Get ready in two months every open weight model will be super excited about everything
Argon is incredibly cooked it often doesn't reason at all or leaks all of its reasoning as plain text
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Some findings based on Anthropic’s published plot: - The share of merges on weekends rose steadily from 7% to 18% (+0.33 pts/week). Monday–Wednesday declined the most, Thursday slightly, and Friday held steady. - The time to double the number of daily merges shortened from 67 days (Jan – May) to 41 days (May – Jul) to 20 days (Aug – Sep) - Merge growth sped up about 5 weeks before Mythos Preview and Opus 4.7, and again before Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5. That could mean the models were available internally weeks before launch.
PR's to Anthropic's monorepo are exploding so they built their own git
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New SOTA on Spy Bench
We discovered a sophisticated recording device that was hidden inside one of our offices. We used our models to understand the device and where it had come from, identifying that a specific employee had planted it a few days earlier. We referred the matter to the FBI, and we’re grateful to the agents and prosecutors who moved quickly to make an arrest. The FBI’s investigation is ongoing and we will continue to support their work. At this time, we have no indications of this individual inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating model weights, source code, or customer data. The employee was terminated. We take protecting our technology, data, and people seriously, and as a matter of national importance. Our security program is designed to protect against a wide range of threat actors, from insider risks to cybercriminals to nation states, and this case is an example of how AI can help address these sophisticated security threats.
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Bayesian retweeted
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Bayesian retweeted
Let's say a frontier model is a 10T MoE on GB300 NVL72. That's ~5 Joules/token or ~50 W at human thinking speed vs our brain at 20 W. The energy grid is $0.08/kWh and eating rice $0.50/kWh. So on an energy-per-thought standpoint rn we're surprisingly similar to frontier models!
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Because my hubris knows no bounds, I've made another 100:1 wager regarding Millennium Problems, betting against a scenario proposed by @Bayesian0_0: another MP solved in 2026, outside the labs, by a team with no human-generated conceptual breakthrough @littmath #litt4arbiter
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Bayesian retweeted
Replying to @Bayesian0_0
this is like when people across the globe independently discover moral facts of which there are many
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This Navier-Stokes mistranslation thing is a nothingburger. Like 5 of you are making a nuanced (frankly pedantic) point about readability issues that are being phrased in a way that sounds to non-math ppl like there are serious doubts the proof is correct. There is no such doubt.
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