Bechara Gerges

🚩 Peace with Israel is the single most terrifying word in Lebanese politics, not because it threatens Lebanon, but because it threatens every faction that has built its empire on the permanent absence of it. I have watched this country for decades, and I will tell you what no one on a podium has the courage to say: the people who oppose peace are not protecting Lebanon; they are protecting their own relevance. Hezbollah cannot exist without the “enemy” at the gate. Iran cannot justify its corridor to the Mediterranean without a front line that never closes. And every warlord turned statesman who laundered a militia past into a cabinet future needs permanent instability the way a parasite needs a host. That is why they prefer death over peace. Not Lebanese death, which has never cost them a single sleepless night, but the death of the system that feeds them. Christians watched their presidency hollowed into a rubber stamp issued from Dahiyeh. Sunnis watched Rafik Hariri assassinated and his political heirs forced to coexist with the architecture of his assassination. The Druze watched their autonomy reduced to a phone call from a handler. Every community outside Hezbollah’s orbit has been living under undeclared occupation disguised as national unity, and the absence of peace is the lock on the cage. Sixty years of rejectionism didn’t liberate a square meter, didn’t build a single power plant, and didn't secure a future. It buried 200,000 people, bankrupted a nation, exiled a generation, and delivered total strategic control to a militia that answers to Tehran and calls it sovereignty. Anyone still defending this isn’t a patriot. They are either an operative, or a hostage so conditioned by captivity that they have mistaken the warden for a guardian. This is why peace isn’t just a diplomatic position; it is the single act capable of collapsing the entire architecture of Lebanese captivity. The moment the war justification disappears, Hezbollah loses its veto, Iran loses its last ideological foothold on the Mediterranean, and every political actor in Beirut is forced to stand naked, stripped of the conflict they’ve hidden behind for half a century. And then, only then, the Lebanese can finally have the conversation that’s been strangled since Taif: what does this country actually look like when no one holds a gun to the table? Perhaps it’s federalism. Perhaps it’s partition. Perhaps it’s a model no one has written yet. But that conversation is impossible as long as one armed faction holds the permanent right to override every community in the name of a resistance that resists nothing except Lebanon’s own survival. The opponents of peace know this perfectly well. They know that the day Lebanon signs, their operating myth dies. That’s why they will fight it with every tool they have: religious guilt, nationalist shame, sectarian fear. Because peace doesn’t just end a conflict with Israel; it starts a reckoning with them. And they would rather bury another generation than face that reckoning. Enough. The absence of peace has already cost Lebanon everything except its last heartbeat, and the men who caused it are now asking for more time. They’ve had a century. The answer is no.

🚩 If this is accurate, the danger extends far beyond the midterms. An AI that minimizes Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranian regime while directing its criticism at conservatives and the political right wing, cannot be trusted to guide public judgment. If people continue to defer to such systems on politics, they risk surrendering decisions with profound consequences for human security to a technology incapable of recognizing the threats before it. Under those conditions, AI becomes a doomsday engine with a friendly interface. By the time the consequences are understood, the rest may already be history.

🚩 Secretary Rubio has already told Democrats what their new House majority can and cannot do on foreign policy. When Asked in Atlanta whether a Democratic Congress would make his job harder, he answered plainly: "It won't influence or change the President's directives in terms of what he was elected to do." Rubio knows both sides. He served in the Senate in the majority and the minority, under presidents of both parties. His conclusion: "the central role belongs to the Executive Branch." Congress keeps funding, appropriations and oversight. Rubio said so himself. What it does not get is command of American foreign policy. That matters most on Iran. Democrats have promised hearings, subpoenas and limits on Iran war funding. Tehran will read every vote as an opening, and so will all the Iran’s proxies in the Middle East region including Hezbollah in Lebanon. The House Democratic leadership must decide now whether oversight means accountability or tying the President's hands while Iran rebuilds.

🚩 Abdul El-Sayed's election hands Tehran's narrative a vote in the US Senate, and the Democratic Party chose to make him its flagship. Hours after beating Mike Rogers, El-Sayed renewed his campaign against US funding for Israel's war on Hamas. He did it while Iran's regime keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, threatens US bases and holds American interests hostage across the region. His allies told Michigan voters to elect him to end the Iran war. From January, he votes on arms, sanctions and the funding of US forces facing that regime. Tehran's strategy is to outlast American resolve, and every vote that divides Washington serves that strategy. Republicans handed him the seat. Rogers attacked his faith instead of his record and let him turn every challenge into a charge of bigotry. Democratic leaders own this choice and must answer for every vote he casts. Republicans must expose his record on Iran in every debate, every hearing and every vote, until the cost of weakness is clear to Michigan and to Tehran.

🚩 American voters handed the House to Democrats at the worst possible moment for US security, and Tehran will be the first to test the cost. Major networks project a Democratic House majority from January. It arrives while Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed until Washington accepts its seven conditions, including sanctions relief and an end to the US naval blockade, and while the IAEA still cannot verify Iran's stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. A House that controls the budget can turn that position into pressure on deployed forces in the middle of a confrontation. Iran's strategy depends on outlasting American resolve. Every sign of division between the White House and Congress tells Tehran, Hezbollah and the regime's other proxies that waiting pays. All the Middle East region including Lebanon will feel that first, because Hezbollah and the other proxies calibrate their choices to Iran's reading of Washington. President Trump keeps the veto and his authority as commander in chief, and he has said he will use the veto. Republican leaders in Congress must protect funding for US forces and the pressure on Iran. Incoming House Democratic leaders must say now whether they will stand with American troops or with the Iranian regime.

🚩 Democrats have won the House. The result gives them oversight and the power of the purse. It does not give them command of US foreign policy, and Washington's adversaries should not read it that way. Major US networks project that Democrats will take the House majority in January, with one projecting about 248 seats. Democrats have also flipped Senate seats in North Carolina and South Carolina, but Senate control has not yet been called. Votes in several competitive districts are still being counted. President Trump keeps the veto and his authority as commander in chief. He has said he will become "Mr. Veto" if a Democratic Congress tries to reverse his agenda. The first test will be Iran. Rep. Ro Khanna, a prominent House Democrat, campaigned on cutting off funding for US operations against the regime while American forces remain in the region. Tehran will try to use any gap between the White House and the new House, and Hezbollah in Lebanon will follow its lead. Incoming House Democratic leaders must say now whether they will fund the forces already deployed. Republican leaders in Congress must hold the line on Iran until January and after it.

🚩 Today's outcome will be decided by the voters who have not yet cast a ballot, and the final major Senate poll shows them leaning Republican. The last New York Times/Siena survey before the vote shows Democrats ahead in six of seven Senate battlegrounds and level in Iowa. In the same poll, voters who made up their minds in the last month favour Republicans by nine points. Siena's director said several races remain within the margin of error. The pollsters also noted that blue-collar voters have been hard to reach in past surveys. Early voting favoured Democrats. Today's in-person vote is where Republican voters have traditionally turned out. The result matters far beyond Washington. A Democratic Senate would control funding for US operations against Iran and could slow arms sales to Israel. Tehran and Hezbollah are following this count closely, and so is Beirut, and the whole world. Republican voters who have not yet voted must go to the polls before they close tonight. President Trump has asked them to vote as if he were on the ballot.

🚩 Hezbollah's assurances give Lebanon no protection. In February, it signaled it would stay out of an Israel-Iran war. On March 2, it fired anyway, and Lebanon went from five occupied points to 68 occupied villages. That decision was not made in Beirut. MP Fouad Makhzoumi put the question where it belongs: to President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. A state does not ask an armed group for guarantees. The state alone decides and it enforces that decision on everyone. Beirut is spared today at President Trump's request, not by a Lebanese decision. And disarmament that leaves Hezbollah's money untouched leaves its power intact. Al-Qard Al-Hassan still operates under an Interior Ministry licence. The Cabinet can revoke it. The Shia majority wants the state. The international community is ready to help. Neither can replace the decision the government and the presidency in Beirut have yet to take.

🚩 One day before the midterms, a prominent Democrat has set out what a Democratic Congress would do: cut off funding for US operations against Iran while American forces are still deployed in the region. On national television on Sunday, Rep. Ro Khanna said he would stop funding "any further actions in the Iran War". The anchor asked whether that meant defunding operations while US assets remain in the region, and he held his position. He compared his plan to the way Congress ended the Vietnam War, and he noted that the president cannot veto it. He did not address what that would leave unresolved. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog told the Security Council last week that his inspectors still cannot verify Iran's 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, close to weapons grade. Iran has not given them access to the damaged sites. The regime has spent decades arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, and it uses them to pressure US partners and attack American interests. Who would account for that uranium if Congress stops the pressure before inspectors return? Has any Democratic leader rejected Khanna's plan? And why should Lebanon's state and army expect Hezbollah to give up its weapons if Washington pulls back from Tehran? Democratic leaders must say today whether Khanna speaks for them. Voters must decide tomorrow whether Congress keeps funding the forces it sent and keeps pressure on Iran's nuclear programme.

🚩Democrats are campaigning to end the Iran war while Tehran is still at the table and still refusing to make nuclear concessions first. A House that ends the pressure now would hand Iran the outcome it could not win. At a rally in Virginia Beach on Saturday, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said a Democratic majority would "end this failed, reckless, costly war of choice in Iran." The same evening, President Trump told reporters that Iran "will never have a nuclear weapon," that it wants a deal, and that it is not reliable. Qatari mediators are pressing both sides, with Washington demanding nuclear concessions first and Tehran demanding the blockade lifted first. Which concession would Democrats extract from Tehran before lifting the blockade? Who would stop Hezbollah from rearming once Iran's frozen funds are released? And why should the regime negotiate at all if it expects a new House to do its work? Voters decide on Tuesday. Congress must stand with the President until Iran's nuclear commitments are verified.

🚩 The regime that founded Hezbollah, arms the Houthis and the Iraqi factions, and runs the Revolutionary Guards has now found terrorists in the Royal Navy. Iran's Foreign Ministry designated Britain's Royal Navy and Royal Air Force terrorist organisations this morning and labelled MI6 a "hostile group", under a Supreme National Security Council resolution. Tehran cited British bases used in the war and London's 13 July move to bring the Revolutionary Guards under its State Threats Act. So the government that keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to world shipping is now ruling on who counts as a threat to the sea lanes. The designation is meaningless outside Iran's borders, and that is the point. It is a show for a domestic audience, made by a regime that cannot hold its own airspace. London should answer by doing what it put off in July and banning the Revolutionary Guards in full, and by standing beside Washington while President Trump keeps the pressure on Tehran.

🚩 أعاد المرشد الأعلى الإيراني إدراج لبنان في خطته للحرب. اجتمع مجتبى خامنئي اليوم برئيس هيئة الأركان وقائد الجيش وقائد الحرس الثوري. وأمر بالردّ الفوري على أي هجوم أميركي أو إسرائيلي جديد "من دون قيود جغرافية" وبتحديث لائحة الأهداف لتشمل جميع الأصول الأميركية والإسرائيلية. كما اعتبر وحدة "جبهة المقاومة" بمختلف ساحاتها عاملاً استراتيجياً حاسماً. لم يذكر حزب الله بالاسم. لكن لبنان يعرف جيداً كلفة هذه الوحدة. ففي 2 آذار، فتح الحزب النار على إسرائيل، معلناً الردّ على مقتل علي خامنئي، وأدخل لبنان في حرب لم تتخذ حكومته قرار خوضها. قال مسؤول لبناني رفيع اليوم إن من المستبعد أن يشارك حزب الله في حرب جديدة، إلا إذا بات بقاء النظام الإيراني مهدّداً. وهذا يعني أن دخول لبنان الحرب مجدّداً يتوقف على تقدير طهران للخطر الذي يتهدّد نظامها، لا على قرار يتخذه مجلس الوزراء اللبناني. وأول من سيدفع الثمن هم شيعة الجنوب والبقاع والضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت، وأهالي القرى التي لم يتم إعمارها حتى اليوم بعد الحرب الأخيرة التي اختارتها طهران لهم. وقد أوضحت إدارة الرئيس ترامب أن تمويل إعادة الإعمار والانسحاب الإسرائيلي يأتيان بعد نزع السلاح، لا قبله. أمام هذه المعادلة، تقع على رئيس مجلس النواب نبيه بري مسؤولية واضحة. فهو الزعيم الشيعي الوحيد الذي يتمتّع بمكانة لدى بعبدا وحارة حريك معاً، وعليه أن يقول لحزب الله إنّ أبناء طائفته لن يتحمّلوا كلفة حرب ثانية لحماية نظام طهران. فهل يفعل؟

🚩 Iran’s Supreme Leader has put Lebanon back inside his war plan. Today, Mojtaba Khamenei met Iran’s chief of staff, army commander and Revolutionary Guards commander. He ordered that any renewed US or Israeli attack be met with an immediate response “without geographical limitations”, ordered the target list updated to cover all US and Israeli assets, and called the unity of the “Resistance Front” across its arenas a decisive strategic factor. He did not name Hezbollah. Lebanon already knows what that unity costs. On 2 March, Hezbollah opened fire on Israel citing the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, and took Lebanon into a war its government did not choose. A senior Lebanese official said today that Hezbollah is unlikely to join a renewed war unless the survival of Iran’s ruling system is at stake. That puts the trigger for Lebanon’s next war in a judgment Tehran makes about its own regime, not in a decision of the Lebanese Cabinet. The first to pay for that judgment will be the Shia of the south, the Bekaa and Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the villages that have still not been rebuilt after the last war Tehran chose for them. The Trump administration has made clear that reconstruction money and Israel’s withdrawal will follow disarmament, not precede it. Speaker Nabih Berri, the one Shia leader with standing in both Baabda and Haret Hreik, must tell Hezbollah that his community will not be spent a second time to protect a regime in Tehran. But will he?

🚩Is Tehran negotiating now because the blockade is becoming unbearable, or because a US strike after the midterms could threaten the regime’s ability to retain its grip on power? After more than 12 hours of talks with Qatari mediators in Tehran on Friday, can discussions in Doha resolve the central disagreement: Washington’s demand for nuclear concessions first and Tehran’s insistence on lifting the blockade, releasing frozen funds and restoring oil sales? If reports of direct US participation are confirmed, will Iran offer verifiable concessions while it still has room to negotiate? With Gulf allies reportedly warned to prepare for a possible short, intensive campaign after Tuesday’s elections, how much time does Tehran believe it has? Could renewed strikes leave Iran’s leadership in office but substantially weaken its command structures, security apparatus and ability to enforce decisions? Would such an outcome produce concessions, or a more fragmented state in which armed institutions compete for authority and no leadership can reliably implement an agreement? For President Trump, would phased relief tied to verified nuclear compliance, freedom of navigation and Gulf security secure more durable results? And does Tehran understand that delaying an agreement could leave it negotiating later with fewer resources, less authority and considerably less control over what follows?

🚩Pope Leo XIV has voted by mail in the US midterm elections, becoming the first Catholic pontiff to vote in an American election.axios.com/2026/10/30/pope-le…

🚩President Trump has named one guarantee for ending the Iran war, and Hezbollah's arsenal is not it. On Friday, Trump said the war "is going to get wrapped up soon" and that "we need a guarantee there'll never be a nuclear weapon." He has said the US will not strike Iran before the 3 November elections. Hours earlier, Tehran's interim Friday prayer leader called for a review of Iran's nuclear doctrine and asked officials to submit proposals to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Lebanon's file sits outside that bargain. On Wednesday, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem ruled out any discussion of surrendering the militia’s weapons. A senior Gulf diplomatic source has been quoted as saying Trump pledged a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon if Beirut joins the Abraham Accords. Senior Israeli officials replied: "No withdrawal before Hezbollah is disarmed." As usual, no Lebanese official has publicly responded. Ending the war with Iran will not, by itself, remove a single Hezbollah weapon from Lebanese territory. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam must have the army enforce the Cabinet's 2 March decision, whatever Washington and Tehran sign.

ما الفرق بين نواف سلام ونجيب ميقاتي اليوم؟ على الصعيد الاقتصادي والسياسي والتنفيذي

🚩لم يكن نواف سلام يوماً الخيار المناسب لرئاسة الحكومة في هذه المرحلة. فقد أظهر ضعفاً سياسياً لا ينسجم مع مقتضيات الموقع وحجم المسؤولية، مع أنّه يستطيع أن يفعل أكثر بكثير مما يفعله. لكنه اختار مسايرة نبيه برّي، وأحجم عن اتخاذ القرار وتحمّل مسؤوليته. الحصيلة: لا شيء