Bill Miller (@BillMiller32) header
Bill Miller (@BillMiller32) profile picture

Private Doctor/Investor specializing in micro/small cap biotech-big believer in collaborative networks of fellow investors who can & do beat the institutions

USA
Joined November 2011
Not so far-fetched…that $AXSM 170,000 share AM dump from $141 to $131, particularly after this multi month decline, had all the ear marks of a Classic Washout Bottom… if not, perfect, probably close enough🎃! $XBI $IBB
$AXSM down more today…I think some weird knee jerk selling due to $ABOS. I added more. Gonna go out on a limb here and say today’s low is the bottom. $XBI
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Some $AXSM positive confirmation today🎃! (graphic provided by Bryon Franzen:-)
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$AXSM BuyOut👻??? Not likely primarily b/c majority of insiders(incl. Importantly, mgmt), would much prefer to realize larger share of Obv. Growth Potential before even considering…IOWs, no reason to “give it away!” Plus “Young” Herriot enjoys being CEO, so…not yet😉! $XBI $IBB
getting set up to be bought out. It often happens this way. $350+ $AXSM
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However, in a world where some 12mnth PTs already in $300s, with ~50% Rev growth, & CashFlow Positivity imminent, do agree if such an $AXSM transaction were to occur, would definitely be $350/share MINIMUM😀!…But not holding my breath:-)
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$AXSM dip? 6 Sept firesides suggested GreatStory-what I’ve heard has only confirmed maj. ADA(Auvelity)Rev Ramp plus 💪pipeline dev. Ext.Ironic Inflation & AI fear dip just when AXSM becoming a CashMachine->Exactly what people should be buying at times like this😉!Great Op! $XBI
6 $AXSM Investor Conferences in Sept clearly suggest a V.Good Story…Would imagine Auvelity Channel Chks post ADA approval show Major new RXs which,despite Historical Sept Mkt, can only catalyze the stock price…Why I sold pile of put sub $200😉! $XBI $IBB axsometherapeuticsinc.gcs-we…
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6 $AXSM Investor Conferences in Sept clearly suggest a V.Good Story…Would imagine Auvelity Channel Chks post ADA approval show Major new RXs which,despite Historical Sept Mkt, can only catalyze the stock price…Why I sold pile of put sub $200😉! $XBI $IBB axsometherapeuticsinc.gcs-we…
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$CHRS data delay?Not happy-however,prefer slight delay(partic.if it’s really to enable more scans,which it prob. is),b/c we’ll get a more solid readthru to Tagmo & Casdo effic.I believe is real. Mgmt knows their neck’s(+stock options), are on the line,so I think they believe it!
Replying to @BillMiller32
@BillMiller32 What do you think about $CHRS delaying data until October?
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Needless to say, due to current meager $CHRS MC, sig. cash, & Loqtorsi (60ml+& growing) run rate, if the data is reasonably good for either compound, this market cap could easily double in price v. quickly. $XBI $IBB
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$AXSM Q2? Looking like minor revenue miss largely built into weak price action over last month, which(if you listen to the call), occurred in the context of overall program building sales & product momentum across the board. IOWs, Still 💪 overall prospects imo! Buy! $XBI $IBB
$AXSM Total 2Q 2026 net product revenue of $218.4 million, representing 46% year-over-year growth AUVELITY® 2Q 2026 net product sales of $180.3 million, representing 51% year-over-year growth SUNOSI® 2Q 2026 net product revenue of $35.8 million, representing 20% year-over-year growth SYMBRAVO® 2Q 2026 net product sales of $2.3 million AUVELITY launched for treatment of agitation associated with dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease in June 2026 NDA submission for AXS-12 for cataplexy in narcolepsy accepted by the FDA with PDUFA target action date of May 1, 2027 FOCUS-2 and FOCUS-3 Phase 3 trials of solriamfetol in children and adolescents with ADHD initiated Company to host conference call today at 8:00 AMEastern
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$AXSM ? Despite recent Vol related to interest rates(eg. $XBI ), residual disappointment re: delayed AlzDA approval(vs6 mnths), & generalized seasonal Mkt Anx. exaggerated by War & pending midterms, it still looks V.Good to me😉! $XBI $IBB
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True, & $AXSM Narc approval assured-but why it took till now to accept this applic,plus assigning 10mnth rev vs Priority most expected(b/c of 💪 clinical trial Rs & unique cataplexy Tr value),is certainly a mystery for an agency claiming it’s about eliminating red tape🥴??? $XBI
Replying to @BillMiller32
Narcolepsy announcement today by FDA another feather in $AXSM hat! What a company!!
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$AXSM vs $NVCT ? Considering 2 multiBl in-licensed assets,plus the NT prospect of NXP900 clin.Tr Rs(v.likely+or Haisco prob. wouldn’t sign),it’s easy to imagine achieving a comparable $35/$40/Share(~1Bl MC,⭕️areas)before liftoff to$100>SOMETIMES they rhyme😉! $XBI
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Would add-Unlike so many pop & drops, what we’re witnessing here(in view of the total reformulation of the Co), is a fundamental repricing of $NVCT commensurate w a new baseline value which imo is ~1Bl MC…why I expect it to drift up to $35-$40 a share in next few wks $XBI $IBB
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$CHRS ? Hard to say-Despite the obv. positive r/r, @ this ridic.low MC, & w this lvl of PL FirePower,it should be $3-$5 already🥴-but Hx of MgmtTox has left such a bad taste,Mkt may require solid Rs before any sig. rise-Still,I’m seriously betting my $1.40 Avg. will pay off! $XBI
Replying to @BillMiller32
@BillMiller32 You think $Chrs touches $1.80 before readouts? Would be ideal because then after positive data the sp would prob be at $3.
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Sorry I didn’t notice your Q Paul…obv.,lot of price movement since then->Still Extremely Bullish on $NVCT -used $9.50s drop to further accumulate…2nd(Larger Than Ever)largest position.Admittedly,Highly Speculative…but,Multi,Multi Bagger or Bust I just can’t resist😅!GLTA $XBI
Replying to @BillMiller32
Are you still a fan of $NVCT Good run here
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Would note-pertinent issue is critical mono&combo therapy NXP900 data(which is open label and therefore may be leaking)-mono scheduled to be reported in July/August-current Vol imo reflects battle between massive potential vs ext early nature of clinical prog. Place your bets!:-)
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I can only assume Jeff agreed they were giving short shrift to $AXSM ‘s Very Substantial & Comprehensive CNS PL…Explains their recent PT upgrade($275 to $380)…More like it🌺! $XBI $IBB
$AXSM def moving into BeastMode,w Jeff’sPT(which has been lowAvg)moving from$245to$275->CurrentAvg~$270/High$310-worth noting almost all (~15)estimates based on AuvelityMDD &ADA,w multiple other catalysts(Narco/Cataplexy NearTerm)coming on…So Still VeryConservative=Cheap😉! $XBI
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Bill Miller retweeted
$XBI #Biotechs #Profitability nice to see very different Biotech sector gaining traction - profitability $LQDA $TGTX $AXSM $TARS
$XBI #Biotechs - Josh Schimmer blurb today This is a very different biotech sector than we've had in the past, with a growing and critical mass of successful product launches and companies transitioning to profitability. There are always ups & downs and streakiness in the industry, but Biotech's never been in such a strong position fundamentally, and remain constructive on the sector.👍
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$AXSM def moving into BeastMode,w Jeff’sPT(which has been lowAvg)moving from$245to$275->CurrentAvg~$270/High$310-worth noting almost all (~15)estimates based on AuvelityMDD &ADA,w multiple other catalysts(Narco/Cataplexy NearTerm)coming on…So Still VeryConservative=Cheap😉! $XBI
$AXSM Beast mode #Biotechs 2030 models 2.6 Billion in revenue & $33 bucks in EPS
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I was in that $ITCI deal…Yes similar vibes-but ultimately so much bigger prize for any acquirer-plus what’s good for a standalone is also v.attractive to suitors…IOWs,any buyer fortunate enough to make an $AXSM deal is going to have to pay up…Shareholders win either way! $XBI
I have some $ITCI vibes... buyout soon? Patent overhang lifted again at $AXSM! Great company and pipeline.
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Note-though Mkt often focused on M&A quick fixs(75-100% premium), $AXSM up ~130% last 12 mnths, & though some of that might be anticipatory, much is strictly prog dev. related-& since we may see the same again this year,&Mgmt interests w.Aligned w S.Hldrs, No rush to see sale!:-)
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