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Blue Bullet Brad

@BlueBullet1981

Father, Oilers and Esks fan, Blogger and analyst on hockey prospects & the NHL draft. @bluebulletbrad.bsky.social

 Spruce Grove, Alberta
bluebulletbrad.substack.com/
Joined April 2009
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Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)Photo by Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)
Go check out my NHL entry draft rankings. Brand new model for 2026.
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Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) profile pictureBlue Bullet Brad@BlueBullet1981Jun 22
BLUE BULLET 2026 NHL ENTRY DRAFT FINAL RANKINGS open.substack.com/pub/bluebu…
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Per hockeystats, the Oilers are 9th in expected goal share. Per 60, the median score is: ALL 3.1-2.8 5x5: 1.8-1.8
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Oilers rank 20th at 49.3 xGF%. 9th in xGA and 27th in xGF.
Scott Cullen (@ByScottCullen) profile pictureScott Cullen@ByScottCullen17h
The Oilers rank 24th with 46.6 xGF% during 5-on-5 play. What kind of structure is that?
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Median 5x5 adjusted xGF/60 and xGA/60 are both 1.8.
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First 8 games, Bouchard played 72.5% of his 5x5 minutes with McDavid. Last 5 games, it is down to 63.6%.
Adam (@Asnow119) profile pictureAdam@Asnow119Oct 29
Is the plan for more offense from the depth to give those lines more Bouch/Ekholm?
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Blue Bullet Brad retweeted
Dennis King (@DKingBH) profile picture
Dennis King@DKingBHOct 29
I still don't see it with the D pairs just yet. But seeing 93 and 16 running their own lines, and considering the first line plus 18-22 on the shelf, I could see the four line plan with 97-29-93-16 down the middle. That's the way
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Sid 🇨🇦 (@NHL_Sid) profile picture
Sid 🇨🇦@NHL_SidOct 28
New Post: Figuring out Isaac Howard ⬇️ 🔗 the97thpercentile.substack.c…
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Potential final version Hyman-McDavid-Savoie Podkolzin-Draisaitl-X Dach-Dickinson-Frederic Howard-Nuge-Joseph
Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) profile pictureBlue Bullet Brad@BlueBullet1981Oct 27
Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl Howard-RNH-Joseph Dach-Dickinson-Frederic Formenton/Hallander-Michaels-Kapanen
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Connor Murphy must relish the 11% of his 5x5 time that he gets to play with the big boys.
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Same with Walman and his 17%.
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Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl Howard-RNH-Joseph Dach-Dickinson-Frederic Formenton/Hallander-Michaels-Kapanen
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Dach-Dickinson-Frederic shows promise
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The 6 forwards and 3 defencemen for the Oilers below replacement level per Hockeystats Box WAR
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Image from Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)
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The 10 forwards and 4 defencemen for the Oilers above replacement level per Hockeystats Box WAR
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Image from Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981)
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Hockeystats Box WAR
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Advanced analytics had Seider as the best d-men for the Red Wings. This is a prime example that a tracking informed model appears stronger than a boxscore aggregator.
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Seider Truther 🦅 (@5Seiders) profile pictureSeider Truther 🦅@5SeidersOct 27
Mo Seider’s rating for this game is a prime example of the limitations of “advanced” analytics. #LGRW
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Blue Bullet Brad@BlueBullet1981May 13
Top 10 AHL SV% for goalies born 2002-2005 (min 15 GP) Postava .937 (2002) Lindbom .926 (2003) Murashov .919 (2004) Fowler .916 (2004) Cossa .915 (2002) Blomqvist .913 (2002) Merilainen .909 (2002) Milic .905 (2003) Kokko .901 (2004) Gerasimyuk .901 (2003)
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Blue Bullet Brad@BlueBullet1981Jun 10
Only 5 AHL goalies born in 2002 had a .900+ SV% in 25-26. As you can see from the chart, the goalies that end up as 1A/1B NHL netminders tend to be showing strong signs by age 23, if not already in the NHL. Postava .937 Cossa .915 Blomqvist .913 Merilainen .909 Commesso .901
Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) profile pictureBlue Bullet Brad@BlueBullet1981Jun 9
How Cossa's AHL stats at age 23 compared with current NHL goalies.
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Remember folks, there is data out there that will save you from looking the fool. Don't make the mistake and be one like Adam.
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Adam (@TOSportsAdam) profile pictureAdam@TOSportsAdamOct 25
Replying to @2003nicko
Until 10 minutes into the game and they’re back on the same line. They’ve always played together.
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Oilers All Strengths score adjusted ranking per hockeystats GF/60 - 1st GA/60 - 18th G+-/60 - 2nd xGF/60 - 16th xGA/60 - 5th xG+-/60 - 8th GAx/60 - 1st GSAx/60 - 26th G+-Ax/60 - 2nd
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Since Oct 2:
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