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Managing Principal, Obsidian Risk Advisors Board Member: DePaul Biz & Seton Hall IR Expertise Featured in: See Banner https://xitter.cf/t.co/Yd8AQG9xzb
Joined March 2026
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MAJOR BREAKING: Netanyahu, in a statement just moments ago, claims that Mojtaba Khamenei has decided to move forward to trying to develop nuclear weapons. He also states that “the only way to eliminate this threat once and for all is to topple the Iranian regime”.
He has instructed Mossad and the IDF to “act accordingly”.
There are many aspects to unpack here, but let’s start with the most obvious: Netanyahu has EVERY incentive to claim that Iran is sprinting for the bomb in order to ensure the United States returns to all-out war with Iran in the coming weeks. This is irrefutable.
It should also be noted that it would not be surprising AT ALL if Iran actually DID decide to move to acquire nuclear weapons as a DIRECT result of the U.S./Israel war of aggression against Iran. This is almost certainly the only way that Iran can TRULY establish deterrence from future US/Israeli aggression in the future.
But what stands out to me more than anything to me here is the clear admission about what this war has ALWAYS been about for Israel and the United States:
Total REGIME CHANGE.
All of these false goals of “proxy group funding”, “missile and drone research and development”… it’s all bullshit, and has been since day one. And not just from Israel, but from the United States as well.
Washington DC doesn’t TRUST Iran to adhere to any deal they make with the United States. Not because there is basically… ANY precedent to support this distrust, but because the Israeli Lobby, Iran Hawks, Iranian Diaspora, and Neocons in Washington have such a deeply rooted HATRED of any and everything having to do with Iran.
Their warped and twisted view of Iran should be evident to everyone at this point. The total inability for these people to view Iran in a realistic and rational way is one of the CORE REASONS why this war of choice from the U.S. and Israel has been such a total shit show from day one.
But here is the other reality that needs to be acknowledged: For Israel, they don’t CARE how many people around the world suffer and die to support their goals of Greater Israel. They don’t care that civilians will pay the ultimate price for Israel to continue pushing for regime change even though it is VERY OBVIOUS that regime change in Iran is utterly delusional at this point.
So is this claim from Netanyahu true?
Maybe! But it doesn’t matter. He will say ANYTHING to continue this war, and he will DO ANYTHING to ensure that the Iranian government is overthrown.
He doesn’t CARE how many people around the world suffer. He doesn’t care how many around the world DIE. And he most CERTAINLY does not give a single shit about the Iranian people.
This is about Israel. This is about regional domination. This is about maintaining Israel’s control over the United States.
This is the Bibi Show, we are just mere pawns to be sacrificed in his sick game.
Brett Erickson retweeted
If we take UKMTO’s word for it, it’s been over a WEEK since a SINGLE tanker was struck crossing Hormuz…
So let’s just all stop acting like UKMTO reflects any form of reality at this point!
Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING: The IRGC is stating that they struck SEVEN VESSELS yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.
This is… not all that incompatible with video evidence that has emerged from the region that shows at LEAST FOUR vessels being struck by Iran yesterday.
What people need to realize at this point is that the United States is UNDENIABLY forcing vessels to non-report to the UKMTO.
If we only relied on UKMTO, we would be living in a fantasy world where ZERO tankers have been struck crossing Hormuz in over a WEEK.
… Come back to reality yall. Vessels are getting smashed on the daily here.
The IRGC-Navy says:
• 4 ships that were doing ship-to-ship transfers of oil cargoes, for an American company, in the north-central Persian Gulf, that used illegal routes, were struck and caught on fire.
• 3 other ships violating maritime regulations were struck by mines, west of the Strait of Hormoz, causing fires that brought them to a halt.
Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING SAUDI/YEMEN: Ansar Allah (Houthis) spokesman Yahya Saree has announced MORE strikes against Saudi Arabia that were conducted in the last 24 hours, with several being very notable targets:
- Saudi Ministry of Defense building in Riyadh
- King Fahd Airport (again) in Dammam
- Aramco facilities at Yanbu
- Abha International Airport (again)
While the King Fahd Airport, even by Saudi’s own admission, has been hit at least three times now, and the Abha International Airport half a dozen, it shows the seriousness in which Ansar Allah is approaching their “blockade for blockade” campaign on Saudi.
But most notable are the strikes in the MoD building and the Yanbu facilities.
Striking the MoD… IN RIYADH, is very symbolically significant for Ansar Allah, and comes just more than a week after AA struck the Aramco HQ in Dhahran that destroyed the Aramco CEO’s office.
But the strike on Yanbu… this is an absolutely CRITICAL export hub for Saudi to move product through the Suez. It is worth noting that it has been struck multiple times before, but not with enough damage to cause sustained and crippling disruptions.
In short, what we are seeing is an Ansar Allah that can strike across Saudi Arabia at will. From the West coast at Yanbu, to the far East coast at Damman, to the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
It’s open season on The Kingdom.
NOW: Brent Crude rises above $112/barrel, currently trading at $112.25 and rising.
This marks the highest point since May when it reached $127/barrel.
What is a key difference between these two months? Well… there was a hot war in May, and this is $112/barrel DESPITE there not being all-out war.
… Wtf is this going to rise to if the U.S. and Israel launch all-out strikes and Iran retaliates…
Brett Erickson retweeted
COLUMN: Don't mistake Mideast oil rebound for normality
Crude oil prices remain near five-month highs despite a recent surge in Middle East crude exports above pre-war levels and intensifying Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests investors may already be bracing for another round of regional escalation.
The rebound in crude flows from the Gulf is striking. Middle East oil exports have averaged 17.3 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in October, up from 16.4 million bpd in September and above the 16.9 million bpd average in the two months before US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, according to Kpler data.
The sustained traffic is a clear sign that Gulf producers and tanker owners are willing to tolerate the risk of attack.
But higher flows should not be mistaken for a return to normality.
Read my full Reuters Open Interest column
reuters.com/commentary/reute…
MONITORING: Multiple images are circulating just now, including ones that have been independently verified as new, showing smoke columns rising out of the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
This is paired with NASA FIIRMS imagery that appears to show a blaze at an Aramco facility in the Saudi capital.
It is yet to be totally confirmed that this is a strike on Aramco that has resulted in significant destruction, but it’s not looking good.
BREAKING: The IRGC is stating that they struck SEVEN VESSELS yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.
This is… not all that incompatible with video evidence that has emerged from the region that shows at LEAST FOUR vessels being struck by Iran yesterday.
What people need to realize at this point is that the United States is UNDENIABLY forcing vessels to non-report to the UKMTO.
If we only relied on UKMTO, we would be living in a fantasy world where ZERO tankers have been struck crossing Hormuz in over a WEEK.
… Come back to reality yall. Vessels are getting smashed on the daily here.
The IRGC-Navy says:
• 4 ships that were doing ship-to-ship transfers of oil cargoes, for an American company, in the north-central Persian Gulf, that used illegal routes, were struck and caught on fire.
• 3 other ships violating maritime regulations were struck by mines, west of the Strait of Hormoz, causing fires that brought them to a halt.
If we take UKMTO’s word for it, it’s been over a WEEK since a SINGLE tanker was struck crossing Hormuz…
So let’s just all stop acting like UKMTO reflects any form of reality at this point!
BREAKING SAUDI/YEMEN: Ansar Allah (Houthis) spokesman Yahya Saree has announced MORE strikes against Saudi Arabia that were conducted in the last 24 hours, with several being very notable targets:
- Saudi Ministry of Defense building in Riyadh
- King Fahd Airport (again) in Dammam
- Aramco facilities at Yanbu
- Abha International Airport (again)
While the King Fahd Airport, even by Saudi’s own admission, has been hit at least three times now, and the Abha International Airport half a dozen, it shows the seriousness in which Ansar Allah is approaching their “blockade for blockade” campaign on Saudi.
But most notable are the strikes in the MoD building and the Yanbu facilities.
Striking the MoD… IN RIYADH, is very symbolically significant for Ansar Allah, and comes just more than a week after AA struck the Aramco HQ in Dhahran that destroyed the Aramco CEO’s office.
But the strike on Yanbu… this is an absolutely CRITICAL export hub for Saudi to move product through the Suez. It is worth noting that it has been struck multiple times before, but not with enough damage to cause sustained and crippling disruptions.
In short, what we are seeing is an Ansar Allah that can strike across Saudi Arabia at will. From the West coast at Yanbu, to the far East coast at Damman, to the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
It’s open season on The Kingdom.
Brett Erickson retweeted
Data suggests that Iran's stock of oil on the water has been depleted.
FWIW on average 2026 will likely be a profitable year for Iran, given high prices and several periods (Mar-Apr, July) of very high loadings.
But earnings in 2027, absent an end to the US blockade, will be zero. wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
For those that saw, here is my alert on my phone for the hail… BASEBALL SIZED HAIL.
Welcome to our live show! xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nGnRBDjY…
Do US officials believe the stuff Netanyahu gives them or just pretend to?
Brett Erickson retweeted
US officials cited here think that an intense, brief (as in, a few days) air campaign will push Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program.
These predictions have been made before. They have proven incorrect. Iran is broadly signaling it is ready for an attack, that it expects one, and will retaliate aggressively.
Trump has yet to make a decision. nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
Brett Erickson retweeted
Welcome to our live show! xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nGnRBDjY…
Brett Erickson retweeted
A foreign leader who's been saying Iran is months from a bomb since the 1990s brought us new intelligence saying we should bomb Iran. Wow. Never seen that movie before. Surely this one ends better than the last one.
Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING: The King Fahd Airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia had experienced “material damage” after Ansar Allah (Houthis) struck the airport as part of their “blockade for blockade” campaign.
It is worth noting that Dammam is on the VERY Eastern part of Saudi Arabia, more than 800 miles from where the strikes would have been launched.
Ansar Allah continues to wreak havoc on The Kingdom.




















