Managing Principal, Obsidian Risk Advisors Board Member: DePaul Biz & Seton Hall IR Expertise Featured in: See Banner https://xitter.cf/t.co/Yd8AQG9xzb

Joined March 2026
Brett Erickson retweeted
Officially left my role at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence last month. Tulsi Gabbard asked me to join her team to help reform the Intelligence Community and to uncover information and truths that would help rebuild trust with the public. Our team, the Director’s Initiatives Group (DIG), worked to fulfill the promises that were made to voters on declassification and exposing past weaponization of government against the American people. All of us in the DIG did the best we could, given the limitations. There were lots of incredible, career intelligence professionals who volunteered, at great career risk, to support our mission. True to form, they never sought any credit. My hope is that one day they will be properly recognized for their work.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
MONITORING: Multiple images are circulating just now, including ones that have been independently verified as new, showing smoke columns rising out of the Saudi capital of Riyadh. This is paired with NASA FIIRMS imagery that appears to show a blaze at an Aramco facility in the Saudi capital. It is yet to be totally confirmed that this is a strike on Aramco that has resulted in significant destruction, but it’s not looking good.
Smoke is rising from Saudi Aramco’s Riyadh refinery following possible Houthi strikes
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Brett Erickson retweeted
NEW: Iran is now threatening to target American bases in the Middle East if vessels continue to transit the Omani Route.
"This is a serious warning" Iran is now threatening to attack US bases across the middle east if commercial vessels continue to use the Strait of Hormuz.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
NOW: Brent Crude rises above $112/barrel, currently trading at $112.25 and rising. This marks the highest point since May when it reached $127/barrel. What is a key difference between these two months? Well… there was a hot war in May, and this is $112/barrel DESPITE there not being all-out war. … Wtf is this going to rise to if the U.S. and Israel launch all-out strikes and Iran retaliates…
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Brett Erickson retweeted
If we take UKMTO’s word for it, it’s been over a WEEK since a SINGLE tanker was struck crossing Hormuz… So let’s just all stop acting like UKMTO reflects any form of reality at this point!
MenchOsint
@MenchOsint4h
Videos and reports circulating confirm 4 tankers were struck yesterday, and not a single report from UKMTO. *shahed-type engine in the first video.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING: The IRGC is stating that they struck SEVEN VESSELS yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. This is… not all that incompatible with video evidence that has emerged from the region that shows at LEAST FOUR vessels being struck by Iran yesterday. What people need to realize at this point is that the United States is UNDENIABLY forcing vessels to non-report to the UKMTO. If we only relied on UKMTO, we would be living in a fantasy world where ZERO tankers have been struck crossing Hormuz in over a WEEK. … Come back to reality yall. Vessels are getting smashed on the daily here.
Arya Yadegaar
@AryJeayBackup8h
The IRGC-Navy says: • 4 ships that were doing ship-to-ship transfers of oil cargoes, for an American company, in the north-central Persian Gulf, that used illegal routes, were struck and caught on fire. • 3 other ships violating maritime regulations were struck by mines, west of the Strait of Hormoz, causing fires that brought them to a halt.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING SAUDI/YEMEN: Ansar Allah (Houthis) spokesman Yahya Saree has announced MORE strikes against Saudi Arabia that were conducted in the last 24 hours, with several being very notable targets: - Saudi Ministry of Defense building in Riyadh - King Fahd Airport (again) in Dammam - Aramco facilities at Yanbu - Abha International Airport (again) While the King Fahd Airport, even by Saudi’s own admission, has been hit at least three times now, and the Abha International Airport half a dozen, it shows the seriousness in which Ansar Allah is approaching their “blockade for blockade” campaign on Saudi. But most notable are the strikes in the MoD building and the Yanbu facilities. Striking the MoD… IN RIYADH, is very symbolically significant for Ansar Allah, and comes just more than a week after AA struck the Aramco HQ in Dhahran that destroyed the Aramco CEO’s office. But the strike on Yanbu… this is an absolutely CRITICAL export hub for Saudi to move product through the Suez. It is worth noting that it has been struck multiple times before, but not with enough damage to cause sustained and crippling disruptions. In short, what we are seeing is an Ansar Allah that can strike across Saudi Arabia at will. From the West coast at Yanbu, to the far East coast at Damman, to the Saudi capital of Riyadh. It’s open season on The Kingdom.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
COLUMN: Don't mistake Mideast oil rebound for normality Crude oil prices remain near five-month highs despite a recent surge in Middle East crude exports above pre-war levels and intensifying Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests investors may already be bracing for another round of regional escalation. The rebound in crude flows from the Gulf is striking. Middle East oil exports have averaged ​17.3 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in October, up from 16.4 million bpd in September and above the 16.9 million bpd average in the two months before US-Israeli strikes ‌on Iran began on February 28, according to Kpler data. The sustained traffic is a clear sign ​that Gulf producers and tanker owners are willing to tolerate the risk of attack. But higher flows should not be mistaken for a return to normality. Read my full Reuters Open Interest column reuters.com/commentary/reute…
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Brett Erickson retweeted
Data suggests that Iran's stock of oil on the water has been depleted. FWIW on average 2026 will likely be a profitable year for Iran, given high prices and several periods (Mar-Apr, July) of very high loadings. But earnings in 2027, absent an end to the US blockade, will be zero. wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
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Brett Erickson retweeted
Arta Moeini PhD
@ArtaMoeini5h
Impeach. Hegseth. Now. He works for Netanyahu, not the American people.
Mehdi Hasan
@mehdirhasan12h
Hegseth came back from Israel with new ‘intel’ from Netanyahu which might make Trump do another strike on Iran? Are. You. Fricking. Kidding. Me?
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Brett Erickson retweeted
The ENTIRE U.S. Iran War strategy: Civilian suffering. That is all.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
Ryan Grim
@ryangrim15h
Do US officials believe the stuff Netanyahu gives them or just pretend to?
NOW: Haaretz, citing White House sources, states that the United States is shifting in favor of a preemptive strike on Iran. The reason? Because Hegseth has new intelligence that was given to him by Bibi Netanyahu after his surprise visit to Israel. You’ve GOT to be kidding me…
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Brett Erickson retweeted
US officials cited here think that an intense, brief (as in, a few days) air campaign will push Iran into making concessions on its nuclear program. These predictions have been made before. They have proven incorrect. Iran is broadly signaling it is ready for an attack, that it expects one, and will retaliate aggressively. Trump has yet to make a decision. nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
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Brett Erickson retweeted
A foreign leader who's been saying Iran is months from a bomb since the 1990s brought us new intelligence saying we should bomb Iran. Wow. Never seen that movie before. Surely this one ends better than the last one.
NOW: Haaretz, citing White House sources, states that the United States is shifting in favor of a preemptive strike on Iran. The reason? Because Hegseth has new intelligence that was given to him by Bibi Netanyahu after his surprise visit to Israel. You’ve GOT to be kidding me…
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Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING: The King Fahd Airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia had experienced “material damage” after Ansar Allah (Houthis) struck the airport as part of their “blockade for blockade” campaign. It is worth noting that Dammam is on the VERY Eastern part of Saudi Arabia, more than 800 miles from where the strikes would have been launched. Ansar Allah continues to wreak havoc on The Kingdom.
Brian’s Breaking News and Intel
@intelFromBrian16h
Saudi Civil Aviation: The attack on King Fahd Airport in Dammam resulted in material damage that is currently being assessed
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Brett Erickson retweeted
Replying to @rich_goldberg
wtf are you TALKING ABOUT Goldberg? Obviously Netanyahu has benefit to escalating prior to the Israeli elections.
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Brett Erickson retweeted
BREAKING: Iran is launching yet ANOTHER wave of missiles at the Strait of Hormuz. This is at least the 4th or 5th salvo today alone. It is very obvious at this point that Iran has a VERY deep stockpile of missiles and drones, and simultaneously, it is well-documented that the United States has a shortage of interceptors. But Bibi told us to go back to war, so buckle up everyone. FOR ISRAEL!!!
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Brett Erickson retweeted
While this is obviously IRGC trolling, it does raise a concern that has been rolling around in my head for some time in the event the United States resumes combat operations against Iran, specifically against Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran has little domestic capacity for developing heavy conventional bombs like the GBU-43/B, mostly because Iran has no domestic capability to deliver such a weapon. However, Iran does have the capacity, the raw materials, and the technical know-how to develop and deliver an improvised explosive device with an energy output far higher than that of the MOAB. Iran is one of the top producers of ammonia globally and operates a well-established petrochemical and nitrogen-based fertilizer industry. Iran has also demonstrated a willingness to use explosive-laden USVs and skiffs against merchant vessels before, including during this conflict. It would not be hard for them to scale that tactic up to an ammonium nitrate/fuel oil-laden merchant vessel. As a point of reference, consider the 2020 Port of Beirut explosion. That was 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate that had been aboard a derelict 86m general cargo vessel that made an unscheduled stop in Beirut before being abandoned. The cargo was eventually off-loaded and improperly stored within the port, where it degraded over the course of 6 years and eventually detonated. The Beirut explosion was the equivalent of around 1 kiloton (1,000 metric tons) of TNT. It was, and remains, the sixth-largest accidental artificial non-nuclear explosion in history. For comparison, the MOAB yields 0.011 kilotons (11 metric tons) of TNT. Even a much smaller improvised device could cause considerable damage and would be even easier to deliver. The Oklahoma City bombing was also an ammonium nitrate/fuel oil-based device containing around 2 metric tons of ANFO mixture that was possibly spiked with acetylene cylinders. That explosion was the equivalent of just 0.002 kilotons (2 metric tons) of TNT and destroyed most of a nine-story reinforced concrete and granite building. Given that the United States seems uninterested or unable to prevent Iranian-linked vessels from operating in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, it would be fairly easy for Iran to slip an ANFO-laden merchant vessel amidst other merchant traffic and even possibly into regional ports and anchorages. A number of Iranian shadow fleet vessels are in these anchorages already. If the indications that the United States will resume combat operations against Iran and specifically target Iranian energy infrastructure after the midterm election come true, this is how I would expect Iran to strike back. Iran will not let attacks against energy infrastructure go without an equivalent response. It is one of the many reasons why the constant narrative that Iran's military capabilities are degraded, if not obliterated, is misleading. Iran does not need an Air Force or Navy to cause immeasurable harm to the United States and its regional partners, and based on what we have seen over the last 8 months, I see little evidence that the United States or its regional partners would be able to prevent such an attack.
Faytuks Network
@FaytuksNetwork20h
IRGC says its preparing to unveil a new weapon called the 'father of all bombs'
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Brett Erickson retweeted
NOW: Despite a denial by State Department Spokesman Tommy Pigott, NBC News, Reuters, and AFP have ALL now reported that the United States is removing Americans from the Middle East as what is very obviously a preemptive measure ahead of a return to war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Despite the State Department’s claims that this was related to Ansar Allah (Houthis), this very obviously is due to an imminent resumption of the Iran War.
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