TC Bunko

A video from a subscriber. A queue of ships that has built up in front of the Strait of Hormuz. This is what the artery that supplies the global economy with 25% of oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas looks like right now. Brent (the European benchmark oil) reached $94.16 per barrel today (+10%). WTI (American oil) peaked at $92.42 per barrel (+14%). Overall, prices have risen by more than 30% this week, a direct consequence of Sunday's events. The cost of Russian Urals oil has surpassed this increase - by the end of February, it had increased by almost 50%, to $68 from $45 per barrel. And for the first time in a long time, there are no discounts in effect. Moreover, Russian oil is being sold to India at a higher price than Brent, with a surcharge of 4-5$ - that's about $100 per barrel. A shortage and panic in the market. Experts estimate the indirect impact of the blockade of Hormuz - it could lead to a 2% drop in global GDP. It might seem like a measly 2% - whatever! But nooo. A healthy global economy usually grows, not declines. In recent decades, global GDP has grown by an average of 3-4% per year. Today, even without a major Middle Eastern war, the world is teetering on the brink of a recession - with a 2.9% growth rate. A global recession is defined as a slowdown in global GDP to 2-2.5%. This is just a slowdown, not a collapse. So, if there is a 2% drop from the current level, the difference will be almost 5 percentage points - a colossal failure that will wipe out trillions of dollars in value. This is no longer a recession, but a deep depression by historical standards. In the crisis of 2009, the global economy fell by about 1.7%. And this means: mass layoffs, falling incomes, a wave of bankruptcies and collapses of stock markets. Thank you, Trump, who decided to Make America Great Again. I'm convinced they're doing this on purpose. The task is to plunge everything into chaos and wage a war of attrition with China - otherwise they'll soon be overtaken by China. Only in this way can the US prevail. Just as Iran now has a chance of surviving only in a protracted war. And in times of crisis, everyone will rush to the dollar. Which is exactly what we're seeing with the start of the Middle Eastern war. © S. Shilov journalist