TheDB 🇨🇦

One of the new indicators I recently added to the free side of RR Terminal is Market Fuel. ⛽ And this is one of the worst readings I've seen so far. But this is exactly the reason why I wanted to build something like this. 😆 I wanted to build something you could actually use every day to understand what is driving Bitcoin before making a decision. The idea is simple. A move led by spot demand means real capital is entering the market. A move led by leverage means traders are using borrowed exposure through futures and perpetual contracts. Both can push price, but they do not create the same market structure. Market Fuel identifies who is pushing BTC, measures how hot leverage has become through open interest, funding and positioning, then checks whether the move is confirmed across spot flows, ETFs, Coinbase premium, wallet cohorts and exchange flows. Right now, the regime has been leverage-led for 24 consecutive days, while spot CVD is running at -4.2K BTC per day. This does not predict the next candle. It gives you the context behind it. A leverage-led rally can continue. A spot-led rally can fail. But knowing the fuel helps you understand the behavior of the market and the risk you are accepting before the trade. If you use Market Fuel every day, you can see who is driving the move, how much borrowed fuel is involved and whether real demand is confirming it. I think this can make a real difference in how people read the market, so I decided to keep it free inside Market Map. Enjoy.

✍️ Most of what I publish here is in English. This post is for the Portuguese-speaking people in my audience who already invest or research crypto, but still rebuild their decision process whenever the market changes. I’ve opened applications for a new Mentoria Ruga cohort. I built it because access to more charts, models and opinions does not automatically become a usable portfolio process. The work is connecting research to risk, sizing, allocation across systems and a review discipline you can repeat. 👉 I’ll work directly with up to five participants for 12 months. The first 90 days focus on implementing that process around each participant’s actual workflow. The following nine months are for applying, reviewing and refining it with RR Terminal Pro and continued private-group support. The program and application are in Portuguese. I review each application personally. Details below. Feel free to DM me if you have any doubts that are not being covered. 👍

Right now, money is choosing Bitcoin over the S&P 500 and gold 📊 I've been running a new system inside my own structure before it goes into the RR Terminal. Capital Rotation. It reads where capital is flowing between those three. It just gave its third BTC buy signal since July 1. From the July signal at $60K, the position is up 42.5%. In the backtest: 17 confirmed signals, 82% ended higher. Small sample, so I keep the range in mind, the confidence interval runs from 59% to 94%. Worst signal: -11.2%. Ranking today: BTC first, SPX second, gold third. Where I land: the trend has room to continue. If BTC and alts shake a few % from here, I'd read that as the base settling. Could the rotation flip? Yes, and the system will tell me before my gut does. Until then, I stay with the trend 🤝

Whales keep buying 👀 +23.1K BTC last week. +29.6K this week. 30-day net: +57.6K. Roughly $4.9B. What I like is where they're doing it. Their cost basis sits at $60.6K, spot at $85.8K. They're adding 42% above their own break-even. My read: that's conviction. And this is the cohort I actually listen to. Their flow has led price. IC against BTC's forward return is +0.12 at 30 days and +0.30 at 90, positive through the last two cycles. Humpbacks (10K+) took the other side and dumped 54.9K over the same 30 days. Their IC is -0.05. Weak, but it leans the wrong way. Some of that is wallets crossing the 10K line. Doesn't change much for me. The band with the edge is buying, and that's the one I'm following 🔥

📈 bitcoin:native spot ETFs have now taken in money for eight straight sessions. The last negative day was August 14, at -56.2m. Bitcoin sat at 63.1k that day. Yesterday printed +232.2m. Price is around 78.6k. 👉 Roughly 25% of upside happened across a stretch where the ETF bid never turned negative once. Not a single red day in eight. None of this is deterministic. Flows are not a forecast, and a streak ends without asking permission. Eight sessions is a streak, not a structure. But it is the shape you want if the recovery is going to be real. Price that runs with no money entering is a squeeze. Price that runs while money comes in through the ETF door has something underneath it. Right now it has something underneath it 👀 Chart: @ForeDex_Global

Big boss @ki_young_ju is bullish. 🚀

The RR Terminal opens tomorrow. 🔥 Here's exactly what's in it, free tier and paid, so you can decide before the door opens instead of after. 🧵

Want access to it? It will be release to the public soon. 👉 rugaresearch.com - waiting list