
MBA. CMT. Leverage maxi. Highest conviction: The strategy is Strategy $MSTR. DAT Strat Pilot (on AutoPilot app)
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Joined July 2023
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Happy to announce my proprietary Bitcoin buying model called Bitcoin Too Cheap (BTC)™️ Model
As long as bitcoin is in the box, it is in the buying zone.
Base Case D retweeted
Once again, Bitcoin has declined following the U.S. midterm elections.
And we warned about this one year before it happened!
Correlation does not imply causation, but it's hard to argue against historical fractal patterns.
🚨 BITCOIN IS REPEATING HISTORY AGAIN!
On October 28, we published an analysis highlighting a fascinating historical pattern surrounding U.S. midterm elections and Bitcoin's bear market cycles.
November 3 has now passed, and Bitcoin has declined once again, just as we warned was possible.
Look at the chart!
In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin was already in a bear market before the midterm elections, with significant cycle bottoms occurring around or shortly after those events.
Now, in 2026, we're witnessing a remarkably similar setup.
But here's what investors should understand:
The elections themselves may not be responsible for these declines. We could simply be observing a recurring alignment between Bitcoin's four-year cycle, U.S. political cycles, and broader liquidity conditions.
Correlation does not imply causation.
What makes this particularly interesting is that the historical pattern suggests the period surrounding midterm elections deserves close attention when identifying potential bear market bottoms.
We highlighted this risk before November 3, and the market has continued to weaken.
The biggest question remains: Has Bitcoin already reached its cycle bottom, or is the final capitulation still ahead?
History doesn't guarantee the future, but ignoring recurring patterns can be costly.
📊Alphractal.com
Base Case D retweeted
Replying to @Payward
@Payward Q3 2026 Financial results are out
Total Platform Margin of $487M, up 12% from Q2
Funded Accounts reached 7.1M, up 7% from Q2
Adjusted EBITDA at $60M, up from $23M in Q2
payward.com/press-release/pa…
yup this was $NVDA's moat
this is something no other nvda ceo can do
we need jensen back at nvda
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Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia CEO Thursday after 33 years. Board accepted it Wednesday; CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. Shares closed $166.19, down 4.3%, ~$500B lost this week. No reason given.
Base Case: Tuesday's earnings call is now a test of whether the company is bigger than the man. $NVDA
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$NVDA ✊
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Base case $NVDA : a sharp, self-inflicted end to the founder-CEO era at NVIDIA, driven by personal judgment failures that became intolerable once national-security optics entered the picture.
Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO, and board member effective immediately on November 12, 2026 (accepted the prior night). CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO while remaining CFO; longtime director Harvey C. Jones (former Synopsys CEO) is the new board chair. The company is searching for a permanent successor.
What triggered it
•He admitted an extramarital affair with Alice Huang (no relation), a Chinese national and former Megaspeed International executive. U.S. intelligence has assessed her as a Chinese intelligence asset (linked to the Ministry of State Security in reporting). Megaspeed, a Singapore-based customer, has been under scrutiny for allegedly helping route restricted NVIDIA AI chips toward China. Huang’s relationship with her (documented in photos and meetings) raised honeytrap / influence concerns.
•A second reported affair with Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA’s VP of Healthcare (a direct report). Sources described video of them being affectionate at a San Jose hotel during GTC in March 2026; security allegedly offered an NDA to a bystander. This violated company policy and was the proximate cause of the board’s decisive action.
He apologized to employees for being “unfaithful to my wife.” The board initially investigated the spy angle and had expressed some confidence, but the employee relationship prompted a late-night meeting in which he had no real choice but to resign. Reports describe him as depleted and self-critical in the final hours.
Market and company reaction
NVIDIA stock has been hit hard—down double digits around the news, with cumulative market-cap losses in the hundreds of billions (briefly under $4T). This accelerates a prior slide and is pricing out a meaningful “Huang premium”: his hands-on technical involvement, Asian supply-chain relationships (TSMC, memory makers), customer financing of the AI buildout, and Washington lobbying.
The core franchise (CUDA moat, Blackwell/Vera Rubin roadmap, hyperscaler demand, installed base) does not disappear overnight. Quarterly results were still expected to show strong growth, and Kress has stressed operational continuity. That said, the lack of a prepared succession plan, Huang’s unusually flat org structure, and the personal relationships that underpinned priority access and deal-making create real near-term friction.
Base-case outlook
•NVIDIA the company: Survives and remains the dominant AI infrastructure platform, but with more conventional governance and some erosion of the founder-driven edge in relationships and intensity. Near-term volatility and possible brain-drain or competitive opening (AMD, custom silicon) are real risks. The AI capex cycle and product lead matter more than any single person over a multi-year horizon.
•The spy/export angle: The most material overhang. No public confirmation yet that company secrets were compromised (earlier board statements said they had no reason to believe so), but the appearance of entanglement with a major customer under investigation for diversion creates regulatory, congressional, and political exposure. Expect scrutiny, possible tighter controls, and questions about past commercial decisions.
•Huang personally: Severe reputational damage. He remains a large individual shareholder but has no formal role. Personal life is in turmoil; he is expected to face congressional questions. Unlikely to return to NVIDIA leadership. (Elon Musk’s public comment that it would be an “honor” to hire him is noted but secondary.)
In short: classic key-person risk meeting personal indiscretion, magnified by the geopolitics of the AI chip race. The AI boom and NVIDIA’s technical position continue; the singular Jensen-era intensity and personal premium do not. The stock has already begun discounting that distinction.
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so the new mbp oled is basically an ipad with a keyboard
once you see it you can't unsee it
and it's clear the direction where this is going
$aapl
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Today is Thursday of the 32nd Week in Ordinary Time, and it's also the Memorial of Saint Josaphat, Bishop and Martyr.
Today's readings (USCCB, Lectionary 494)
Reading 1: Philemon 7-20. Responsorial Psalm: Psalm 146:7, 8-9A, 9Bc-10. Alleluia: John 15:5. Gospel: Luke 17:20-25.
bible.usccb.org/bible/readin…
In Philemon, Paul writes from prison to his friend Philemon about Onesimus, a slave who ran away from Philemon's household. Onesimus found Paul and became a Christian, and Paul calls him his child, his very heart. Paul says he has the authority to order Philemon to do the right thing, but he would rather appeal to him out of love, so that Philemon's goodness is freely given and not forced. He sends Onesimus back and asks Philemon to receive him as a beloved brother, no longer as a slave, and to welcome him as he would welcome Paul himself. If Onesimus owes Philemon anything, Paul says, put it on Paul's account, and Paul will repay it. He signs that promise in his own hand. Then he gently reminds Philemon that Philemon owes Paul his very self.
Psalm 146 praises the God who keeps faith forever. He brings justice to the oppressed, feeds the hungry, frees prisoners, opens the eyes of the blind, raises those who are bowed down, protects strangers, and sustains the widow and orphan.
The Alleluia is John 15:5. Jesus is the vine and we are the branches, and whoever remains in him bears much fruit.
In the Gospel, Luke 17:20-25, the Pharisees ask Jesus when the Kingdom of God will come. He answers that "The coming of the Kingdom of God cannot be observed," that no one will be able to point and say "here it is," and that the Kingdom is already among you. Then he tells his disciples that days will come when they long to see him and will not. They must not chase after people who claim he is over here or over there, because his coming will be like lightning that lights up the whole sky. But first he must suffer greatly and be rejected by this generation.
The message from God
Read these two passages side by side and they answer each other. In the Gospel, the Pharisees ask when the Kingdom will come. In Philemon, you see what it looks like when it arrives. There are no signs in the sky. There is a slave walking back to the house he ran from, carrying a letter, and a master deciding whether to open the door.
That is the Kingdom "among you." It comes quietly, whenever a person who was treated as property or as a debt is received as a brother. It comes whenever someone says "put it on my account." You can't observe it the way you watch for an eclipse, because it happens inside choices, inside doorways, inside hearts.
The message is this: God's reign is already here, and you enter it by the way you receive the person who has wronged you, and the way you let yourself be received after you have wronged others.
What even devout Christians tend to miss
The first thing is that Paul is doing for Onesimus exactly what Christ does for us. "Charge it to me. I will pay." That is the Gospel in a single line. Christ stands before the Father with our debts and signs his name to them in his own blood. Many devout people know this as doctrine. Fewer notice that Paul isn't only describing salvation. He is imitating it. The Christian life isn't only being Onesimus, the one whose debt is covered. It is also becoming Paul, the one who absorbs someone else's debt so that reconciliation can happen. Ask yourself honestly how often you volunteer to carry the cost of someone else's reconciliation.
The second thing is that Philemon is the one being tested, and Philemon is the respectable believer. He hosts a church in his home. Paul praises his love. He is the devout one. And his test is not about doctrine or devotion. It is whether he will give up a legitimate grievance. Onesimus really did wrong him, and Philemon had every legal right. The letter asks him to let the Gospel overrule his rights. Devout people often fail here, not in prayer life but in the one relationship where they are clearly in the right.
The third thing is Paul's line that Philemon owes him his very self. We become harsh creditors when we forget how much we have been forgiven. That is the parable of the unforgiving servant, compressed into a sentence. An unforgiving Christian is almost always a Christian who has quietly forgotten their own debt.
The fourth thing is that God does not command where he could. Paul could order Philemon, and he refuses, because he wants the good to be voluntary. God treats us the same way. Many sincere Catholics relate to God mostly through obligation, what is required or what counts as a sin. God wants more than compliance. He wants a free yes, and he is willing to wait for it. That is both a comfort and a challenge. He won't force your heart open. You have to choose it.
The fifth thing is that Jesus warns his disciples, not only the Pharisees, against chasing "there he is." Devout people can be among the most restless spiritual chasers: the next apparition, the next conference, the next movement, the next emotional high on retreat, the latest prophecy about the end times. Jesus says don't run after them. When he comes, it will be unmistakable. Until then, the Kingdom is found in the ordinary place where you already are. The Kingdom isn't somewhere else. It is in the person standing at your door.
The sixth thing is the line people rush past: "But first he must suffer greatly and be rejected." Everyone wants the lightning. Few want the rejection that comes before it. The Kingdom comes through the cross, and that includes small crosses like swallowing your pride, giving up being right, and paying a debt that isn't yours. Saint Josaphat, whose memorial is today, spent his life working to heal the division among Christians, and he was killed for it by people he was trying to reconcile. Unity costs something. It always has.
The seventh thing is easy to miss in English. Onesimus means "useful." Paul plays on it: once useless to Philemon, now useful to both of them. Paul also wonders whether Onesimus was separated for a while so that Philemon could have him back forever. God doesn't waste ruptures. The worst chapter of a relationship, or of your own life, can be the place where something permanent begins. If you have ever felt useless, or have written someone off as useless, this letter disagrees with you.
How to walk away and bear fruit a thousandfold
The Alleluia verse answers this question directly. Fruit comes from remaining, not from straining. A branch doesn't grit its teeth to produce grapes. It stays connected and the life of the vine does the work. So the deepest step is staying in Christ through daily prayer, the sacraments, and returning to him every time you drift. Everything else grows from that. (Scripture's own image is close to what you're asking for: Isaiah promises that the least shall become a thousand.)
Then let the readings become concrete today.
First, name your Onesimus. Who in your life do you quietly hold as a debtor? It might be a family member, an ex, a coworker, someone at church. Pray for them by name today, and ask God what one step toward receiving them as a brother or sister would look like. It could be a call, a kind word, or simply refusing to retell the story of how they wronged you.
Second, name where you are Onesimus. Is there a door you ran away from that you need to walk back to? Reconciliation sometimes means being the one who returns, which takes humility. If it involves serious sin, Confession is where that return begins.
Third, practice "charge it to me." Look for one chance this week to absorb a cost so that peace can happen: taking the blame in a small conflict, covering a need quietly, letting someone off the hook. That is how you become like Paul, and Paul was being like Christ.
Fourth, stop chasing "there he is." Choose to look for the Kingdom right where you are, in the next interruption, the next inconvenient person, the next ordinary duty. Tonight, ask yourself where you saw the Kingdom among you today.
Fifth, accept the cost of unity. In honor of Saint Josaphat, pray for one division you are part of, in your family, your parish, or the wider Church, and ask what it would cost you personally to help heal it.
A short prayer to carry with you: Lord Jesus, you paid my debt and signed it with your own hand. Make me a branch that stays in you, and a brother or sister who can say to anyone who has wronged me, "Charge it to me." Let your Kingdom come quietly through my open door. Saint Josaphat, pray for us. Amen.
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$FIGR 🚀
my write up on $FIGR
one of my highest conviction stocks in the LOTR portfolio
basecased.substack.com/p/the…
Lord of the Returns on Autopilot
marketplace.joinautopilot.co…
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