Compact Perspectives

Picked up $JD (JD .Com) at $23.09 last week. I believe the pendulum of investor psychology has swung into the extreme for $JD and China in general. I think there is too little confidence and too much cheapness. I think $JD could regain 12-30% or more from here. 🧵...

Would love to try this out. Hopefully not too late?

Mainly the retail operator renegotiating their lease and AOT’s ballooning AR as the accumulated rent owed grows. But yes, also the big drop in chinese tourists and generally the sluggish domestic economy. And more recently, the political uncertainty regarding the PM seat

This method comes from 2 key info points: 1) making others feel certain of death if they don’t kill the selected person 2) saving the single bullet for the last person to end the game

1)announce a random number will be selected 2)whoever is selected will survive but rest WILL be killed 3)if selected person is killed by others, then a new number will be reselected 4)continue until 1 last person and shoot that last person Steps 2-3 guarantees 1 bullet is enough

👏👏👏

$MKL Markel Corporation seems like a pretty decent clone. At least the CEO, Tom Gayner, has been pretty straight forward about modeling the business after Berkshire.

4/5 or 80%. Pick the coin & throw the combination 8 times. 4 times will be the biased HH coin. And 4 other times will be the unbiased coin with 1 HH outcome. So 4/(4+1) or 4/5.

Thanks for the update. Read the original thread and soon followed the trade after some research - and still holding as well. Do you think $NBN is likely to re-rate at 10-12x the $9.69 projected EPS?

Thank you Chief Inspector xitter.gq/compactpov/status/1826…

$SIVB*

You’ve been goated for me since you called the $SVB collapse 5 months before it happened

In One Up on Wall Street, I believe he said there are a few good reasons for it Small companies are less looked at so pricing could be less efficient. Small companies could uplift from being included in an index. Small companies typically has a longer runway of earnings growth.

The CFO typically serves as a proxy for looking at a company’s ability to generate cash w/out taking into account investing & financing activities In a way, it could be more appropriate to look at CFO as opposed to FCFE or FCFF for a company going thru a heavy investment cycle

I wouldn’t mistake EBITDA with cash flows. There is a lot under EBITDA that’s not being accounted for. And your second “cash flow” there would typically be referred to as CFO for short or cash flow from ops.

Big fan of both you and Ernest✌️ 1) How to manage the investments when you have fresh capital coming in every month / few months 2) Position sizing as positions grow / decline 3) Thoughts on switching between defensive vs aggressive through various time periods / market cycles

Headwind 💨

Take a look at $BIDU and do the same calculation. It’s something like 3x earnings. The street is giving them no value to cash / investments.

Too little confidence and too much cheapness in the Chinese market.

Fully agreed with Joseph here. Not sure why we’re looking at less than 1 year performance here. Returns of tech / quality compounders have destroyed financials in the recent past.

To further clarify, there would be no ‘real’ value dilution if the acquisition was not dilutive to EPS. The ideal case would be that the acquisition is accretive to current EPS - giving you more value. Add on multiple expansion and debt, you would end up w/ very good IRR & MOIC